Harmless-Modeling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

48.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$108

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-09 19:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

100% 43% $-9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	No		-14	$-10	70¢	$-10	$-0	05-09 15:14
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	No		+13	$10	75¢	$10	$-0	05-09 19:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8?	2	$19	13	13	+0	No	+$1	05-07 18:41
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?	1	$12	0	15	-15	No	$-3	05-07 07:53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9?	1	$12	0	14	-14	open	—	05-09 04:39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9?	1	$12	0	14	-14	No	$-3	05-09 00:23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?	1	$11	0	14	-14	No	$-3	05-08 05:14
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	1	$10	0	14	-14	open	—	05-09 15:14
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-09 19:27
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8?	1	$9	13	0	+13	No	+$4	05-07 17:41
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?	1	$8	9	0	+9	No	+$2	05-07 18:41
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 7?	1	$4	0	10	-10	No	$-6	05-07 08:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 19:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb4f628…
05-09 15:14:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	No	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xac43a1…
05-09 04:39:53	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x245d0d…
05-09 00:23:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$12	0x6a6e6b…
05-08 05:14:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?	No	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0x95fe69…
05-07 18:41:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0xbb8a3a…
05-07 18:41:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8?	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0x8a6e1d…
05-07 17:41:05	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8?	No	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0xa246f7…
05-07 17:41:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8?	No	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0x61bc39…
05-07 08:53:31	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 7?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xd5b7be…
05-07 07:53:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?	No	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x780ce2…