Realized P&L
+$23.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.81K
Hit rate
89.1%
Resolved
57,729
Trades
283,401
lifetime
Volume
$5.52M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$63.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-22
last 10-27 08:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 184 days
Categories
Other
75% 86% +$16,173
Politics
15% 86% +$11,022
Sports
7% 88% +$208
Tech
2% 81% -$4,896
Crypto
1% 80% +$1,112
Pop-Culture
0% 86% -$483
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 3505 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +4,143 $3,573 100¢ $4.1K +$564 08-29 17:02
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +3,578 $3,457 100¢ $3.6K +$116 09-10 16:46
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +3,270 $3,025 97¢ $3.2K +$146 09-21 14:36
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +3,083 $2,741 98¢ $3.0K +$289 09-11 23:07
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +3,002 $2,971 100¢ $3.0K +$18 10-05 05:18
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +2,665 $2,513 100¢ $2.7K +$140 10-26 13:01
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +2,613 $2,588 100¢ $2.6K +$21 09-14 02:57
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +2,574 $2,569 100¢ $2.6K +$1 09-06 19:02
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +2,378 $2,370 100¢ $2.4K +$4 09-05 17:20
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +2,322 $2,295 100¢ $2.3K +$22 10-01 15:22
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +2,203 $2,194 100¢ $2.2K +$3 08-25 19:48
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No +2,176 $1,971 99¢ $2.2K +$193 10-25 19:21
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +2,135 $2,126 100¢ $2.1K +$7 09-10 04:27
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +2,365 $856 89¢ $2.1K +$1,254 10-27 09:53
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +2,027 $2,017 100¢ $2.0K +$7 09-10 21:34
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +1,944 $1,942 100¢ $1.9K -$1 09-20 03:27
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,784 $1,781 100¢ $1.8K +$1 08-27 10:47
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +1,716 $1,711 100¢ $1.7K -$1 09-23 04:47
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,689 $1,684 100¢ $1.7K +$2 10-27 10:09
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +1,669 $1,663 97¢ $1.6K -$47 09-30 08:28
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,589 $1,586 100¢ $1.6K +$1 09-30 11:52
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,549 $1,546 100¢ $1.5K +$0 07-25 18:19
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,549 $1,546 100¢ $1.5K +$1 07-25 18:19
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,535 $1,532 100¢ $1.5K +$1 07-25 18:19
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,463 $1,458 100¢ $1.5K +$2 07-25 18:19
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,456 $1,451 100¢ $1.5K +$3 07-25 18:19
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +1,396 $1,389 100¢ $1.4K +$2 09-17 16:05
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +1,375 $1,367 100¢ $1.4K +$2 10-23 16:06
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +1,378 $1,322 99¢ $1.4K +$41 10-25 17:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No +1,369 $1,324 98¢ $1.3K +$17 10-26 22:45