Fair-Casualty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

Trades

297

lifetime

Volume

$2.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 05-14 02:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

51% — —

Politics

26% — —

Sports

22% 62% +$41

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$158	239	146	+93	open	—	05-02 13:02
spx up or down on march 20 2026	8	$127	81	81	+0	open	—	03-20 14:25
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	6	$126	80	80	+0	open	—	03-19 19:30
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	8	$99	69	69	+0	open	—	03-26 10:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$89	87	87	+0	open	—	04-07 23:05
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	3	$69	46	46	+0	open	—	04-07 23:06
spx up or down on april 1 2026	7	$61	39	39	+0	open	—	04-01 16:03
will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	3	$48	29	29	+0	open	—	03-31 13:02
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	4	$48	76	0	+76	Over	+$28	05-08 02:40
spx up or down on april 10 2026	5	$44	29	29	+0	open	—	04-10 21:10
spx up or down on march 10 2026	7	$44	37	37	+0	open	—	03-10 19:35
spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	2	$43	31	31	+0	open	—	03-19 12:17
Lakers vs. Rockets	6	$42	32	31	+1	open	—	04-25 03:00
spx opens up or down on march 11 2026	4	$41	37	37	+0	open	—	03-11 13:25
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	3	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	01-30 14:53
spx up or down on march 17 2026	4	$34	24	24	+0	open	—	03-17 20:06
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$30	38	0	+38	open	—	05-13 21:45
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$30	37	0	+37	open	—	05-13 21:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$30	69	69	+0	open	—	03-31 18:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	02-28 22:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$28	68	68	+0	open	—	03-26 10:41
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$25	42	0	+42	open	—	05-13 21:45
spx up or down on march 13 2026	4	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	03-13 20:35
spx up or down on march 30 2026	3	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	03-30 22:55
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	3	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	03-13 19:58
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5	2	$22	30	30	+0	Under	$-10	05-08 01:39
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	4	$21	76	76	+0	open	—	03-19 09:32
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5	3	$20	59	0	+59	Under	$-20	05-08 00:51
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	2	$20	23	8	+15	Spurs	+$5	05-08 19:43
76ers vs. Celtics	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	05-02 21:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 02:56:11	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xbcbb03…
05-14 02:47:00	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5	Over	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0xaa97d8…
05-13 21:45:21	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xa13ec4…
05-13 21:45:06	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x6ef6bd…
05-13 21:44:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xb551be…
05-13 21:43:59	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xba6930…
05-13 21:43:29	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xec77b6…
05-13 21:43:15	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xc6d591…
05-13 21:42:54	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x6857ff…
05-13 21:42:33	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd57138…
05-13 13:37:22	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5	Over	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x7f782c…
05-13 13:37:06	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5	Over	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xd21651…
05-13 13:36:52	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5	Over	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x413385…
05-13 13:36:35	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x75e7d0…
05-12 03:37:31	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5	Over	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x46c286…
05-11 00:54:13	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x27775e…
05-11 00:32:33	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	SELL	16	24¢	$4	0x250bce…
05-10 20:07:43	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	Under	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x0e0c67…
05-10 12:19:35	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x822ee9…
05-10 12:19:23	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xeac48c…
05-10 12:18:59	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xb7a5ce…
05-10 12:18:53	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	Under	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x672e33…
05-08 19:43:27	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x1f9d77…
05-08 19:43:11	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x3c6957…
05-08 19:42:31	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x513e39…
05-08 19:41:47	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xcb9b01…
05-08 19:40:19	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xdd337b…
05-08 19:40:02	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x61132d…
05-08 02:40:59	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Over	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x2e7995…
05-08 02:36:33	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Over	BUY	12	62¢	$7	0x3da843…
05-08 02:36:23	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Over	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xbc50ae…
05-08 02:31:24	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Over	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x9d4950…
05-08 01:39:15	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5	Over	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x94d1b4…
05-08 01:11:34	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5	Over	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x27ff45…
05-08 00:51:16	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5	Over	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x92500f…
05-08 00:51:02	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xf48207…
05-07 19:19:28	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x1bd7c7…
05-07 19:18:58	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5	Over	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x948693…
05-07 17:26:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	22¢	$7	0xc29db4…
05-07 14:46:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	26¢	$8	0xa14211…
05-07 12:36:12	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x681c2d…
05-07 12:31:59	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x8c3cd3…
05-06 22:32:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x4b30fb…
05-06 19:44:07	Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xd44e84…
05-05 19:19:38	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xbb160c…
05-02 21:16:04	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xc29bd9…
05-02 13:02:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x9e5dd2…
05-02 13:02:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xfba1c0…
04-29 23:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd88d02…
04-29 23:34:52	Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xf193a5…
04-29 14:18:08	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x9c8c79…
04-27 15:16:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x5fa8af…
04-27 13:03:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x0e87e9…
04-27 11:59:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xc756e1…
04-26 23:15:28	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x9db457…
04-26 23:15:08	Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5	Under	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb79b8a…
04-26 23:14:54	Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	Under	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd52ce0…
04-26 22:30:50	Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5	Over	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x924c07…
04-26 22:27:22	Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0b59ef…
04-26 22:26:22	Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5	Over	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x43ac43…
04-26 22:26:02	Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc2ddbd…
04-26 22:24:32	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xf84035…
04-26 03:05:08	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5	Under	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x646ab5…
04-26 02:50:36	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0x93d12a…
04-26 00:30:12	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5	Under	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x82e9e2…
04-26 00:30:10	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd009c2…
04-25 18:02:24	Thunder vs. Suns	Thunder	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xef007f…
04-25 18:01:54	Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x8814a0…
04-25 03:05:36	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Spurs	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x57ebc1…
04-25 03:00:08	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x5bfb60…
04-25 02:38:14	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xce0ea3…
04-25 01:43:38	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xe24ec1…
04-25 01:25:50	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0x0ea9a6…
04-24 17:09:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x7250dd…
04-24 17:09:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	Up	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x35e143…
04-24 17:08:54	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x7ee01c…
04-24 12:36:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xc7482c…
04-24 12:35:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xefa04f…
04-24 12:35:28	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x410380…
04-23 18:43:04	spx up or down on april 23 2026	Up	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0xc2ae59…
04-23 16:48:04	spx up or down on april 23 2026	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x2d14fe…
04-21 18:59:54	nba hou lal 2026 04 21	Lakers	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xf69234…
04-20 11:26:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	146	57¢	$83	0xd6fb6e…
04-16 11:56:42	spx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x1d9d2c…
04-15 18:37:56	spx up or down on april 15 2026	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa0d74b…
04-15 12:28:04	spx up or down on april 15 2026	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x1b3897…
04-15 03:15:08	nba por phx 2026 04 14	Suns	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xc6477d…
04-14 23:18:20	nba mia cha 2026 04 14	Hornets	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xc9e0ac…
04-14 14:05:29	btc updown 5m 1776175500	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x17377c…
04-14 14:01:43	btc updown 5m 1776175200	Up	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x1ca106…
04-14 14:01:05	btc updown 5m 1776175200	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3cc47e…
04-14 14:00:41	btc updown 5m 1776175200	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf9e4ad…
04-13 18:00:27	btc updown 5m 1776103200	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x0e4d20…
04-13 17:57:27	btc updown 5m 1776102900	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x85bea1…
04-13 17:40:23	btc updown 5m 1776102000	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x2a8b15…
04-13 17:35:17	btc updown 5m 1776101700	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xf4c035…
04-13 17:33:05	btc updown 5m 1776101400	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x30d1bd…
04-12 23:48:21	nba orl bos 2026 04 12	Magic	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x9c92fb…
04-12 23:47:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	26¢	$15	0x44d592…
04-12 23:47:01	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x60eed2…