Fair-Casualty — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$25

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

76.6%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

12 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$100

$100 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$28

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-14 02:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Sports

59% 50% +$25

Politics

41% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-64	$-34	34¢	$-22	+$11	05-07 21:16
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	+10	$5	32¢	$3	$-2	05-13 21:43
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	+11	$3	20¢	$2	$-1	05-13 21:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$34	0	64	-64	open	—	05-07 21:16
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$15	23	0	+23	Spurs	+$8	05-08 19:40
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	1	$10	20	0	+20	Over	+$10	05-07 12:36
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	1	$10	18	0	+18	Over	+$8	05-10 12:19
Knicks vs. 76ers	1	$10	22	0	+22	Knicks	+$12	05-08 19:41
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-13 21:43
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$5	15	0	+15	Timberwolves	$-5	05-11 00:54
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	1	$5	0	10	-10	Over	$-5	05-08 19:43
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5	1	$3	0	6	-6	Over	$-3	05-14 02:47
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$3	11	0	+11	open	—	05-13 21:43
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	1	$1	5	0	+5	Cavaliers	$-1	05-14 02:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 02:56:11	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xbcbb03…
05-14 02:47:00	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5	Over	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0xaa97d8…
05-13 21:43:59	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xba6930…
05-13 21:43:29	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xec77b6…
05-11 00:54:13	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x27775e…
05-10 12:19:35	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x822ee9…
05-08 19:43:11	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x3c6957…
05-08 19:41:47	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xcb9b01…
05-08 19:40:19	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xdd337b…
05-07 21:16:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	48¢	$15	0x425f6c…
05-07 14:46:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	56¢	$18	0xfdd44a…
05-07 12:36:12	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x681c2d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	8	$42.2K	138	05-14 02:53
Agitated-Bricklaying 0x84cf…2f63	7	$203.7K	1,964	05-14 02:10
Unkempt-Image 0xd106…c79c	7	$28.9K	75	05-13 21:18
Happy-Go-Lucky-Min 0x84ad…bfb7	7	$20.2K	190	05-14 02:55
Distant-Traditionalism 0x9495…9a27	6	$60.3K	30	05-14 02:40
Powerless-Savannah 0x5268…135d	6	$14.0K	24	05-14 02:15
Bumpy-Accessory 0x32cc…68b3	6	$10.4K	23	05-14 02:45
Conscious-Outfielder 0xdb83…1e50	6	$3.18K	48	05-11 02:09