Mortified-Scarecrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.1%

Resolved

Trades

189

lifetime

Volume

$288

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 05-15 19:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 9% $-22

Politics

29% 0% $-2

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$29	80	80	+0	open	—	05-15 18:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	8	$17	130	0	+130	open	—	05-10 14:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	6	$16	110	110	+0	open	—	05-10 11:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	5	$11	200	150	+50	No	$-2	05-10 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	1	$11	0	11	-11	Down	$-0	05-10 12:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$11	0	11	-11	Up	$-0	05-10 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$10	0	11	-11	Down	$-0	05-10 12:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$10	0	11	-11	Up	$-0	05-10 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	4	$10	67	0	+67	open	—	05-15 19:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-10 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-10 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	4	$9	30	0	+30	open	—	05-15 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	1	$9	0	10	-10	Up	$-2	05-10 12:44
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	2	$8	8	8	+0	open	—	05-03 20:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$7	0	7	-7	Up	$-0	05-10 13:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	4	$6	18	3	+15	Down	+$0	05-09 19:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	7	$6	55	0	+55	Up	$-6	05-05 12:39
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	6	$6	115	115	+0	open	—	05-14 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	4	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	05-14 18:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	7	$5	110	0	+110	open	—	05-15 19:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Up	$-0	05-10 12:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	4	$4	35	0	+35	open	—	05-04 11:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	3	$3	200	0	+200	open	—	05-03 19:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$3	235	0	+235	open	—	05-09 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	1	$3	281	0	+281	open	—	05-15 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$3	10	0	+10	Down	$-3	05-09 18:42
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	3	$3	20	0	+20	open	—	05-03 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	10	$3	40	10	+30	open	—	05-03 20:18
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	7	$3	51	0	+51	open	—	05-03 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	3	$3	15	0	+15	Down	$-3	05-05 12:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 19:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	281	1¢	$3	0xcf9116…
05-15 19:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0xfc3569…
05-15 19:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xd07a6b…
05-15 19:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xa2284d…
05-15 19:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x77244a…
05-15 19:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0x27b107…
05-15 19:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc94760…
05-15 19:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcbf03f…
05-15 19:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xceadcb…
05-15 19:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x561496…
05-15 19:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xdf3407…
05-15 19:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xfb82f4…
05-15 18:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x0e40e6…
05-15 18:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x57e516…
05-15 18:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc17cf8…
05-15 18:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6031bd…
05-15 18:56:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	11¢	$8	0x5a9a31…
05-14 18:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9e53b7…
05-14 18:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xd66925…
05-14 18:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xca21ae…
05-14 18:48:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x2498fa…
05-14 18:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x556f6a…
05-14 18:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xacf431…
05-14 18:43:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xe1f813…
05-14 18:43:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$1	0x10c311…
05-10 19:15:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3b4335…
05-10 15:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x29a7d8…
05-10 15:17:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xf3bfed…
05-10 15:14:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x4f43b8…
05-10 15:13:15	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x782be7…
05-10 15:12:54	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xc65397…
05-10 15:12:45	Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xaa3d97…
05-10 15:12:24	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xb9e2db…
05-10 15:09:48	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x4d523b…
05-10 14:13:06	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x5cede7…
05-10 14:06:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xf16a81…
05-10 13:13:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf864e1…
05-10 13:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x7ba03b…
05-10 13:01:07	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x20c732…
05-10 13:00:10	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa416fe…
05-10 12:58:09	Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xe6ed31…
05-10 12:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x6c7604…
05-10 12:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	10	84¢	$9	0xd56fba…
05-10 12:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0xba2041…
05-10 12:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x530822…
05-10 12:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x0b96e7…
05-10 12:25:50	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0xdaef76…
05-10 12:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x42abc2…
05-10 12:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0x33ce93…
05-10 12:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0x7acc6f…
05-10 12:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x0a1651…
05-10 12:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0x02b610…
05-10 12:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x6bcdae…
05-10 12:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xb8367c…
05-10 11:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x285f71…
05-10 11:56:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	7¢	$8	0x300e7e…
05-10 11:55:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xbd6df0…
05-09 19:11:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0x3427eb…
05-09 19:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x0243e9…
05-09 19:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x67573d…
05-09 19:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x85dd86…
05-09 19:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x28a182…
05-09 19:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x20759f…
05-09 19:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xaad000…
05-09 18:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x3735f0…
05-09 18:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x15cb04…
05-09 18:38:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x9097c1…
05-09 18:38:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	85	1¢	$1	0xf655c9…
05-09 18:35:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x7166ae…
05-09 18:33:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0xb9ce0a…
05-09 18:28:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xc947df…
05-09 18:25:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xd3aa1e…
05-09 18:24:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	8¢	$4	0xd69d46…
05-09 18:23:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	25¢	$9	0x338b3a…
05-09 18:22:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x4c3ebe…
05-09 18:22:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xe6adbc…
05-09 18:21:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x9dcc43…
05-09 18:21:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xaea46d…
05-09 17:06:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xfcb656…
05-09 17:04:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x240083…
05-09 17:02:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xdda5f2…
05-09 16:50:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x87581c…
05-09 16:49:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0x6f1bb7…
05-09 16:49:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x97e857…
05-09 16:49:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc464a7…
05-09 16:49:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xb90cb1…
05-09 16:49:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb214c3…
05-09 16:48:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xac64e6…
05-09 16:48:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xde54ec…
05-09 16:47:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x006c02…
05-05 12:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xad1962…
05-05 12:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xde1f57…
05-05 12:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xe74755…
05-05 12:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x5ae1dc…
05-05 12:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x774d2e…
05-05 12:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf97714…
05-05 12:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x96e8de…
05-05 12:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x220ef2…
05-05 12:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1eb81b…
05-05 12:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xcf4044…