Normal-Prejudice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

-$76

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$138

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-10 02:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

53% 0% $-11

Politics

45% 0% $-1

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+92	$77	1¢	$1	$-76	06-10 02:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$3.0K	1,530	1,530	+0	open	—	04-21 12:08
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$1.5K	1,502	0	+1,502	open	—	04-28 07:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$355	185	185	+0	open	—	05-27 05:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$346	180	180	+0	open	—	05-23 02:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$200	235	0	+235	open	—	06-02 02:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$148	200	0	+200	open	—	05-27 05:18
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	2	$96	55	55	+0	open	—	02-06 02:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$77	92	0	+92	open	—	06-10 02:08
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$59	36	36	+0	open	—	02-06 02:56
will silver si hit high 185 by end of february 694 754	2	$46	23	23	+0	open	—	02-27 05:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$45	47	0	+47	open	—	06-02 02:53
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	03-05 01:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	04-02 06:59
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	1	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	04-25 01:36
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$37	38	0	+38	open	—	04-28 07:12
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	2	$32	17	17	+0	Yes	$-1	04-21 12:08
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$26	0	26	-26	open	—	06-10 02:07
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$26	27	0	+27	open	—	01-19 13:06
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	03-11 06:51
maduro out by february 28 2026	1	$25	41	0	+41	open	—	01-03 07:57
iran strike on israel by february 28	1	$25	26	0	+26	open	—	02-27 05:43
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	1	$24	32	0	+32	open	—	03-25 08:07
trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	04-21 12:08
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	1	$22	25	0	+25	open	—	03-11 06:52
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	1	$22	25	0	+25	open	—	04-21 12:09
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	1	$21	23	0	+23	open	—	04-10 02:19
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	05-27 05:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-02 06:59
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-10 02:20
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	03-11 06:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 02:08:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	92	84¢	$77	0xea998e…
06-10 02:07:39	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x4f748e…
06-02 02:53:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	47	95¢	$45	0x3aea4c…
06-02 02:53:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0x124114…
05-27 05:19:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0xbe7193…
05-27 05:18:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x97feba…
05-27 05:18:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	185	100¢	$185	0xa3499a…
05-23 02:19:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	185	92¢	$170	0x03d596…
05-23 02:19:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0x39597a…
05-22 13:10:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	180	92¢	$166	0x17f617…
05-15 08:21:21	Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0xb9d413…
05-02 02:51:20	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	1,222	1¢	$11	0xc71e0b…
04-28 07:12:06	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0xad3531…
04-28 07:11:04	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	1,502	99¢	$1,485	0xe0a6bf…
04-25 01:36:00	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x7a50a7…
04-21 12:09:06	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x7261da…
04-21 12:08:32	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x4f98b7…
04-21 12:08:24	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0xb7fcc1…
04-21 12:08:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	1,530	99¢	$1,520	0x705b6e…
04-16 11:53:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1,530	99¢	$1,521	0xbae478…
04-16 07:46:52	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xf0b505…
04-10 02:20:23	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x0db32a…
04-10 02:19:59	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	23	93¢	$21	0x14ba51…
04-03 02:49:45	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x69030c…
04-02 06:59:53	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x56228e…
04-02 06:59:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x6d992f…
03-25 08:07:11	us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	No	BUY	32	76¢	$24	0x72f96a…
03-25 08:07:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	21	87¢	$19	0x46e6ac…
03-11 06:52:09	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xcfee61…
03-11 06:52:07	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0xbde25a…
03-11 06:51:33	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	17	61¢	$10	0xc2704d…
03-05 01:41:03	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x9fa3cb…
03-05 01:38:31	will solana reach 150 in march 2026	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x3ca796…
03-05 01:37:27	Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xaee47c…
02-27 05:43:34	iran strike on israel by february 28	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xb818ca…
02-27 05:43:02	highest temperature in wellington on february 27 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xa683e9…
02-27 05:42:26	will silver si hit high 185 by end of february 694 754	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x1a276a…
02-06 02:58:23	will silver si hit high 185 by end of february 694 754	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xff5507…
02-06 02:57:03	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x7a4475…
02-06 02:56:49	will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0x079268…
02-06 02:56:39	Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	36	71¢	$26	0xc5b1cf…
01-23 07:39:58	will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	55	89¢	$49	0xdd8124…
01-22 05:12:44	Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xff2384…
01-19 13:06:42	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x476f18…
01-06 02:17:57	Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	91¢	$33	0x7d2bb2…
01-03 07:57:19	maduro out by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xb9b408…
01-03 07:57:05	us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xc75ec0…