Lean-Paddock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$406

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.3%

Resolved

212

Trades

1,046

lifetime

Volume

$8.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 05-18 00:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 58% $-377

Other

5% — —

Politics

4% 20% $-29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 273 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	4	$258	161	161	+0	Up	+$48	05-11 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	8	$236	184	184	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 11:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	9	$200	218	218	+0	Up	$-40	05-11 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	16	$181	160	160	+0	Up	+$11	05-12 22:26
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	5	$180	216	216	+0	open	—	05-13 15:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	15	$171	135	135	+0	Up	+$11	05-11 22:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	14	$164	150	150	+0	Up	$-16	05-11 14:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	5	$163	151	151	+0	Up	+$13	05-13 02:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	9	$158	150	141	+9	Down	+$8	05-11 14:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?	4	$146	193	193	+0	No	$-36	05-12 02:07
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	18	$135	90,440	215	+90,225	open	—	05-13 15:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	3	$128	906	906	+0	No	+$16	05-03 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	6	$126	130	102	+28	Down	$-14	05-11 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	6	$123	80	80	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	6	$122	92	92	+0	Up	+$16	05-13 02:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	13	$121	93	93	+0	Down	+$17	05-12 22:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	7	$119	95	95	+0	Up	+$9	05-12 17:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	4	$118	148	9	+139	Down	$-102	05-11 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	5	$98	81	81	+0	Up	+$11	05-12 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	1	$97	159	0	+159	open	—	05-04 10:44
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$96	148	148	+0	open	—	05-13 02:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	10	$87	101	101	+0	Down	$-13	05-11 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	5	$84	1,017	16	+1,001	open	—	05-03 23:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	9	$81	68	68	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	10	$80	61	61	+0	Up	+$10	05-12 22:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	6	$76	97	50	+47	Down	$-53	05-04 21:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	12	$73	265	265	+0	No	$-17	05-08 13:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	11	$71	63	63	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	12	$68	116	49	+67	Down	$-34	05-11 16:59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	3	$68	212	212	+0	open	—	05-03 22:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 00:53:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x4133e4…
05-18 00:53:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x1e184e…
05-18 00:53:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xd34de5…
05-18 00:52:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x24a3b7…
05-18 00:49:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x74434c…
05-18 00:46:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4efc43…
05-18 00:46:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xb7cb58…
05-18 00:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0x39f51b…
05-18 00:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x091860…
05-18 00:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x55a38b…
05-18 00:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7c982a…
05-18 00:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbd3dfc…
05-14 21:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x6a3ced…
05-14 21:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xe35aab…
05-14 21:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xc024b0…
05-14 21:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xaefa32…
05-13 21:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x2f7dcf…
05-13 21:39:44	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x767cd8…
05-13 21:39:42	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf2c71a…
05-13 21:39:42	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x73fb27…
05-13 21:39:38	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2361d1…
05-13 21:39:26	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	16	24¢	$4	0x8436c2…
05-13 21:38:58	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xa19d5a…
05-13 21:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0xba2bed…
05-13 21:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd87fa2…
05-13 21:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x350067…
05-13 21:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x802d27…
05-13 21:35:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x4050d9…
05-13 21:35:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x7c5fd6…
05-13 21:34:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xd3468a…
05-13 21:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa763b3…
05-13 21:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0xa348cc…
05-13 21:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xfcc7eb…
05-13 21:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x759695…
05-13 21:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x189767…
05-13 21:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0bda75…
05-13 21:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x7b99c4…
05-13 21:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x5c19c7…
05-13 21:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x7caa8d…
05-13 21:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xbc5a27…
05-13 21:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xb0042a…
05-13 20:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x7dea17…
05-13 20:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x461fbf…
05-13 20:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x8a8285…
05-13 20:16:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x6bf0c7…
05-13 20:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x314ea4…
05-13 20:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x587520…
05-13 20:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x27f11b…
05-13 20:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x84999e…
05-13 20:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x21d923…
05-13 20:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x30da70…
05-13 20:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x5bb333…
05-13 20:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc671da…
05-13 20:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x083670…
05-13 20:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe33f5c…
05-13 20:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x44447a…
05-13 18:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0x6bbf8f…
05-13 18:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x97d351…
05-13 18:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0cd35d…
05-13 18:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x019e23…
05-13 18:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb9ac3f…
05-13 18:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcf5c80…
05-13 18:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc49260…
05-13 18:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x307ea6…
05-13 18:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xd72ab4…
05-13 18:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0x7a7775…
05-13 18:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xaf0f72…
05-13 18:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xe5f914…
05-13 18:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	27	34¢	$9	0x96adee…
05-13 18:17:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x66ee9f…
05-13 18:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x1f3d46…
05-13 18:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x11aebb…
05-13 18:16:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x7ab9b1…
05-13 18:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf8119f…
05-13 18:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe8fa23…
05-13 18:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x9ff732…
05-13 18:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0ff3a0…
05-13 18:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xf98136…
05-13 18:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7c1827…
05-13 18:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x67606b…
05-13 15:50:17	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	4,410	0¢	$4	0xc73325…
05-13 15:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x6d2e56…
05-13 15:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x0fd881…
05-13 15:44:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0xf191d7…
05-13 15:43:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0x2a99f5…
05-13 15:42:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x2afe5b…
05-13 15:42:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xdfdf34…
05-13 15:42:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xeb38f2…
05-13 15:41:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x75fe26…
05-13 15:41:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x4a9fa3…
05-13 15:41:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8d3a62…
05-13 15:41:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4459ad…
05-13 15:41:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xc145a1…
05-13 15:41:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x18288f…
05-13 15:40:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xff5a0d…
05-13 15:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	68¢	$8	0x751f88…
05-13 15:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0xb806d5…
05-13 15:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x0d37d5…
05-13 15:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x69349b…
05-13 15:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	19	42¢	$8	0x9c3eb8…