Disastrous-Alert — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

62.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$315

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-20 22:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Tech

48% — —

Other

41% 50% +$1

Crypto

9% — —

Politics

2% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	-57	$-2	4¢	$-2	$-0	06-20 18:12
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	-21	$-0	1¢	$-0	$-0	06-20 18:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	-38	$-0	0¢	$-0	$-0	06-20 18:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	1	$150	19,605	0	+19,605	open	—	03-05 19:04
cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	6	$59	48	48	+0	open	—	06-20 20:50
cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21	1	$21	36	0	+36	open	—	06-20 22:48
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-16 22:27
will the sbc initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	1	$10	100	0	+100	open	—	03-07 01:22
bitcoin above 68k on march 7	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	03-07 01:19
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 10	1	$6	23	0	+23	open	—	03-08 23:59
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 6	1	$5	26	0	+26	open	—	03-05 21:28
will trump say fed or federal reserve during no tax on tips roundtable	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-16 22:32
andrew tate of tweets march 3 march 10 2026 0 99	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-05 21:27
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	+$3	03-05 21:18
aws service disrupted by march 31 623	2	$4	6	6	+0	open	—	03-07 01:06
btc updown 5m 1773850200	4	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	03-18 16:15
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$2	0	57	-57	open	—	06-20 18:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$2	106	0	+106	open	—	03-28 17:50
btc updown 5m 1773699900	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-16 22:31
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$2	7	0	+7	No	$-2	03-05 21:44
will mrbeasts next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1	1	$2	15	0	+15	open	—	03-05 21:46
btc updown 5m 1773849900	2	$2	13	0	+13	open	—	03-18 16:08
will scream 7 second weekend box office be between 19m and 22m	1	$2	11	0	+11	open	—	03-05 21:49
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$1	67	0	+67	No	$-1	04-16 22:28
will the bride opening weekend box office be between 10m and 12m	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	03-05 21:45
will trumps approval rating be at least 43pt0 on march 6 2026	1	$1	53	0	+53	open	—	03-05 21:47
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	1	$0	0	21	-21	open	—	06-20 18:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$0	0	38	-38	open	—	06-20 18:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 22:48:08	cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21	Team Falcons	BUY	36	59¢	$21	0x7344e7…
06-20 20:50:49	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Team Falcons	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xca87d5…
06-20 19:43:47	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Team Falcons	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x59f445…
06-20 19:43:10	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Spirit	SELL	18	58¢	$11	0xee77ea…
06-20 18:18:47	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Spirit	BUY	18	39¢	$7	0xe1a1c4…
06-20 18:18:17	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Team Falcons	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0xe9f4d2…
06-20 18:12:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	4¢	$2	0xe409c0…
06-20 18:12:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0xe39a27…
06-20 18:12:20	Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xf1b9f7…
06-20 18:01:35	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Team Falcons	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x7cd4bf…
04-16 22:32:24	will trump say fed or federal reserve during no tax on tips roundtable	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xedf657…
04-16 22:28:18	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xf30533…
04-16 22:27:44	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xe35b66…
03-28 17:50:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	106	2¢	$2	0x13740d…
03-18 16:15:01	btc updown 5m 1773850200	Down	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x6927a7…
03-18 16:13:21	btc updown 5m 1773850200	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe35bc1…
03-18 16:13:11	btc updown 5m 1773850200	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x646271…
03-18 16:12:31	btc updown 5m 1773850200	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe6781d…
03-18 16:08:53	btc updown 5m 1773849900	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfdbe27…
03-18 16:07:35	btc updown 5m 1773849900	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x64ceaa…
03-16 22:31:35	btc updown 5m 1773699900	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x18431d…
03-16 22:28:51	btc updown 5m 1773699900	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x65907f…
03-08 23:59:53	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 10	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xc08cce…
03-07 01:22:07	will the sbc initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xfd3a7e…
03-07 01:19:07	bitcoin above 68k on march 7	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x944663…
03-07 01:06:07	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x04c67e…
03-05 21:49:51	will scream 7 second weekend box office be between 19m and 22m	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x835465…
03-05 21:47:29	will trumps approval rating be at least 43pt0 on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x669843…
03-05 21:46:05	will mrbeasts next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x403c25…
03-05 21:45:31	will the bride opening weekend box office be between 10m and 12m	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x2f4ebe…
03-05 21:44:57	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x83122f…
03-05 21:41:55	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xd54f72…
03-05 21:28:33	will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x5d9971…
03-05 21:27:05	andrew tate of tweets march 3 march 10 2026 0 99	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1c8a53…
03-05 21:18:57	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xcd0f5c…
03-05 21:18:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x780ec2…
03-05 19:04:39	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	No	BUY	19,605	1¢	$150	0xda163a…