Scary-Cardboard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$346

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

3.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,361

lifetime

Volume

$306.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$225

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 22:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Crypto

16% — —

Other

15% 100% +$1

Tech

11% — —

Sports

9% 0% $-347

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$36.2K	19,400	19,400	+0	open	—	06-17 17:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	17	$28.1K	28,761	0	+28,761	open	—	05-25 12:05
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	73	$27.2K	27,898	0	+27,898	open	—	05-24 19:12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	16	$23.7K	30,000	10,000	+20,000	open	—	06-02 06:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$21.2K	20,374	1,000	+19,374	open	—	06-01 12:18
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	171	$19.0K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	03-11 13:12
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	11	$12.3K	12,871	1,074	+11,798	open	—	06-11 06:35
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	14	$11.3K	6,250	6,250	+0	open	—	06-17 16:26
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	15	$10.5K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	08-05 02:30
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	5	$10.4K	10,600	0	+10,600	open	—	02-06 07:28
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	22	$8.1K	8,608	3,516	+5,091	open	—	06-11 06:35
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	20	$7.8K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	08-11 18:58
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	26	$7.4K	9,548	8,431	+1,117	open	—	03-22 21:06
will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	4	$6.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	08-01 17:02
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	15	$6.1K	6,164	0	+6,164	open	—	01-26 05:25
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	12	$5.1K	5,419	0	+5,419	open	—	06-04 11:43
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	38	$4.8K	3,685	3,685	+0	open	—	07-06 21:25
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	14	$4.4K	6,345	3,785	+2,560	open	—	06-11 06:36
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in less than 1 hour	4	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	01-23 02:33
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	9	$3.6K	2,620	2,620	+0	open	—	06-09 22:46
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	22	$3.6K	3,500	4,000	-500	open	—	05-28 14:01
will man on fire be the 2 us netflix movie this week january 6 2026	1	$2.9K	2,943	0	+2,943	open	—	01-06 19:54
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 17 be between 2400000 and 2500000	1	$2.3K	2,279	0	+2,279	open	—	01-20 12:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	66	$2.1K	4,333	4,163	+170	open	—	01-27 14:02
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	6	$2.1K	2,551	65	+2,486	open	—	06-09 09:12
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	5	$2.0K	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	05-28 08:43
will google have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	32	$1.9K	2,079	0	+2,079	open	—	01-22 14:57
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 20 million 836	4	$1.9K	990	990	+0	open	—	02-06 07:27
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	22	$1.7K	1,500	500	+1,000	open	—	01-23 14:53
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	6	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-28 06:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 22:27:34	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x26991d…
08-11 22:27:31	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	101	16¢	$16	0xab66c7…
08-11 22:27:28	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	1,801	16¢	$288	0xd8707b…
08-11 18:58:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	852	78¢	$665	0xa51ae0…
08-11 18:57:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xa087d5…
08-11 18:57:18	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x4120ff…
08-11 18:56:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x286c42…
08-11 18:56:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	75	78¢	$58	0xd98ff3…
08-11 18:56:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	158	78¢	$123	0x811bb6…
08-11 18:51:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x0d91ba…
08-11 15:48:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x31ca1c…
08-11 15:48:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	16	78¢	$13	0x1ee6a4…
08-11 15:28:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x6bbaef…
08-11 15:27:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xada370…
08-11 15:27:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7dd6ea…
08-11 15:27:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x553452…
08-11 15:27:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x1bc96a…
08-11 15:27:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	78¢	$15	0x0d5116…
08-11 15:21:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	25	78¢	$19	0xca298e…
08-11 15:19:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xa70fc1…
08-11 15:11:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	170	78¢	$133	0x23037a…
08-11 15:08:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	960	78¢	$749	0x9715e7…
08-11 15:08:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	7,662	78¢	$5,977	0xa1e518…
08-11 06:25:42	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x341d65…
08-11 06:25:37	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	28	16¢	$4	0x1b6c1a…
08-11 06:25:33	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	429	16¢	$69	0xcecb23…
08-11 06:25:25	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0xa54a22…
08-11 06:25:24	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	1,968	16¢	$315	0x61506c…
08-05 02:30:35	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	SELL	696	100¢	$694	0x3ca975…
08-05 02:30:32	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	SELL	5,800	100¢	$5,788	0x27c2ce…
08-05 02:26:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	SELL	501	100¢	$500	0x9ed0c2…
08-05 02:24:56	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x6cb623…
08-04 16:56:29	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490	No	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x31674a…
08-02 21:42:45	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	1,180	50¢	$590	0xa96ee1…
08-02 21:42:29	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	820	50¢	$410	0x02c214…
08-02 17:06:27	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	817	50¢	$409	0xab843d…
08-02 14:04:17	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	1,690	49¢	$833	0xf96a52…
08-02 13:26:32	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	308	54¢	$166	0xb7499b…
08-02 13:26:17	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x1ea317…
08-02 13:25:21	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	54	54¢	$29	0x04c3de…
08-02 13:25:02	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	88	54¢	$48	0x0abb42…
08-02 13:09:26	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	580	57¢	$334	0x33d350…
08-02 11:22:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	413	52¢	$215	0xe0db55…
08-01 17:02:38	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	5,000	63¢	$3,150	0x841eb3…
08-01 16:35:54	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	2,000	68¢	$1,360	0xfb1e30…
08-01 16:15:45	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x4b5619…
08-01 16:06:38	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	1,000	78¢	$781	0xb9fc68…
07-29 18:04:36	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	SELL	290	72¢	$209	0x59faf9…
07-29 18:03:54	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xa0d5e5…
07-29 18:03:50	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xf02ca5…
07-29 15:56:57	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	290	67¢	$194	0xc27b01…
07-29 15:35:17	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xaf6e4e…
07-28 06:46:55	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	SELL	46	93¢	$43	0x41b646…
07-28 06:46:21	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	SELL	374	93¢	$348	0x5a28c4…
07-28 06:44:55	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	SELL	300	93¢	$279	0xbc00bb…
07-28 06:44:30	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	SELL	280	93¢	$260	0xffc6c0…
07-27 21:09:24	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	BUY	951	81¢	$768	0xc9bbac…
07-27 20:30:07	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	BUY	49	81¢	$40	0x5ffb97…
07-06 21:25:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	776	78¢	$606	0x45805b…
07-06 21:23:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xd8b9ef…
07-06 21:23:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	896	80¢	$717	0xc6edcb…
07-06 21:14:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	62	64¢	$39	0xfda55d…
07-06 21:14:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xf81af2…
07-06 21:14:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x99b3d3…
07-06 21:14:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	312	64¢	$200	0x96fc77…
07-06 21:14:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x57ab05…
07-06 21:14:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	223	64¢	$143	0x412b95…
07-06 21:14:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x3e26e1…
07-06 21:14:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x343606…
07-06 21:14:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0x1c0cc4…
07-06 21:14:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0x151a08…
07-06 21:14:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	150	64¢	$96	0x0fd5aa…
07-06 21:14:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x8f2a5e…
07-06 21:14:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x8c9832…
07-06 21:14:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xfd5e5b…
07-06 21:14:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	156	64¢	$100	0xf1a3af…
07-06 21:14:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xab07c6…
07-06 21:14:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x5b9b16…
07-06 21:14:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x057fc9…
07-06 21:12:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xbaaef2…
07-06 21:12:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	55¢	$550	0xacc6d3…
07-06 21:08:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	795	54¢	$429	0xc0592d…
07-06 21:08:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x8b4d73…
07-06 21:08:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	185	54¢	$100	0x5e7de1…
07-06 21:08:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	150	40¢	$60	0xf4f00c…
07-06 21:08:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	277	40¢	$111	0x5b6e32…
07-06 21:08:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x4eb331…
07-06 21:08:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x270df0…
07-06 21:08:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1b2de5…
07-06 21:08:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	257	40¢	$103	0x02302f…
07-06 21:08:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	107	40¢	$43	0xb053b7…
07-06 21:08:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x44f197…
07-06 21:05:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	427	82¢	$352	0xf25a04…
07-06 21:05:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	57	83¢	$47	0x6f111a…
07-06 21:05:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x10e375…
07-06 21:03:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	79¢	$790	0x813e56…
06-28 20:08:59	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xbbffbe…
06-28 14:59:05	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x5d51c7…
06-24 02:50:38	Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	SELL	538	73¢	$393	0x8a4393…
06-18 20:06:34	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	2,500	0¢	$5	0x17c4ad…