Scary-Cardboard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$346

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

3.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,262

lifetime

Volume

$272.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$216

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-28 20:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Crypto

18% — —

Other

14% 100% +$1

Tech

12% — —

Sports

8% 0% $-347

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$36.2K	19,400	19,400	+0	open	—	06-17 17:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	17	$28.1K	28,761	0	+28,761	open	—	05-25 12:05
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	73	$27.2K	27,898	0	+27,898	open	—	05-24 19:12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	16	$23.7K	30,000	10,000	+20,000	open	—	06-02 06:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$21.2K	20,374	1,000	+19,374	open	—	06-01 12:18
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	171	$19.0K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	03-11 13:12
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	11	$12.3K	12,871	1,074	+11,798	open	—	06-11 06:35
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	14	$11.3K	6,250	6,250	+0	open	—	06-17 16:26
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	5	$10.4K	10,600	0	+10,600	open	—	02-06 07:28
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	22	$8.1K	8,608	3,516	+5,091	open	—	06-11 06:35
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	26	$7.4K	9,548	8,431	+1,117	open	—	03-22 21:06
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	15	$6.1K	6,164	0	+6,164	open	—	01-26 05:25
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	12	$5.1K	5,419	0	+5,419	open	—	06-04 11:43
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	14	$4.4K	6,345	3,785	+2,560	open	—	06-11 06:36
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in less than 1 hour	4	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	01-23 02:33
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	9	$3.6K	2,620	2,620	+0	open	—	06-09 22:46
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	22	$3.6K	3,500	4,000	-500	open	—	05-28 14:01
will man on fire be the 2 us netflix movie this week january 6 2026	1	$2.9K	2,943	0	+2,943	open	—	01-06 19:54
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 17 be between 2400000 and 2500000	1	$2.3K	2,279	0	+2,279	open	—	01-20 12:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	66	$2.1K	4,333	4,163	+170	open	—	01-27 14:02
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	6	$2.1K	2,551	65	+2,486	open	—	06-09 09:12
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	5	$2.0K	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	05-28 08:43
will google have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	32	$1.9K	2,079	0	+2,079	open	—	01-22 14:57
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 20 million 836	4	$1.9K	990	990	+0	open	—	02-06 07:27
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	22	$1.7K	1,500	500	+1,000	open	—	01-23 14:53
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	6	$1.7K	1,773	0	+1,773	open	—	06-08 11:32
will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	4	$1.7K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-09 08:56
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	12	$1.4K	1,800	0	+1,800	open	—	03-09 19:41
will turnout in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70 and 75	11	$1.4K	1,336	1,192	+144	open	—	03-31 12:29
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	4	$1.0K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	06-18 20:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 20:08:59	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xbbffbe…
06-28 14:59:05	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x5d51c7…
06-24 02:50:38	Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	SELL	538	73¢	$393	0x8a4393…
06-18 20:06:34	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	2,500	0¢	$5	0x17c4ad…
06-18 19:38:56	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	113	41¢	$47	0xc37229…
06-18 19:38:52	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x86fbff…
06-18 19:38:14	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	2,287	41¢	$937	0xf7a473…
06-17 18:16:47	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xf1fc80…
06-17 18:11:59	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xe161c1…
06-17 18:10:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	177	98¢	$173	0xff00a7…
06-17 17:49:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	14,900	100¢	$14,870	0x497db9…
06-17 17:17:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$46	0x54a243…
06-17 16:26:26	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	188	93¢	$175	0xb9fffc…
06-17 16:26:25	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xfdae6e…
06-17 16:26:25	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	323	93¢	$300	0xa392d9…
06-17 16:26:25	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x86fec6…
06-17 16:26:25	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	58	93¢	$54	0x60ccb0…
06-17 16:26:23	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xf7088f…
06-17 16:26:23	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x368743…
06-17 16:26:23	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	3,896	93¢	$3,623	0x34421b…
06-17 16:26:23	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	37	93¢	$34	0x0396d3…
06-17 16:22:49	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	738	93¢	$686	0xecf8bb…
06-17 15:45:59	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	5,250	93¢	$4,888	0x3bcfa7…
06-17 12:57:14	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	26	19¢	$5	0xaefbdd…
06-17 11:42:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	4,000	100¢	$3,992	0x81f5b0…
06-17 11:21:29	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x0dbe93…
06-17 09:02:22	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	1,000	73¢	$730	0xd7b068…
06-17 08:58:17	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0x69d631…
06-17 08:56:47	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x6746c6…
06-15 15:41:15	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	548	91¢	$498	0xa10adc…
06-15 15:41:15	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	221	91¢	$202	0x0c71cf…
06-15 10:18:03	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	SELL	16	19¢	$3	0x7a5268…
06-15 08:29:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	19,400	87¢	$16,878	0xb2d12e…
06-11 06:36:28	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	560	99¢	$553	0xcbb0c3…
06-11 06:35:55	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,974	0x60e947…
06-11 06:35:28	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	715	98¢	$701	0x6a4e75…
06-11 06:35:01	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x78b1a7…
06-11 06:34:46	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	5,526	98¢	$5,415	0x059b66…
06-11 06:34:21	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	5,557	98¢	$5,427	0xd4dcb2…
06-11 06:33:34	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	2,992	97¢	$2,900	0xf99f6c…
06-11 01:41:03	Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x089def…
06-10 13:52:01	la mayoral election recount of 1st round 20260607215128440	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0xb0a42a…
06-10 09:36:51	will any team participate in 3 penalty shootouts in the knockout phase 20260609220918856	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x995e23…
06-10 09:29:57	Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	BUY	517	71¢	$367	0x74b581…
06-10 09:23:39	Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0xe88d3f…
06-09 22:46:21	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	SELL	2,220	56¢	$1,243	0xd8514c…
06-09 22:03:22	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0x12adaf…
06-09 22:02:04	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	SELL	145	56¢	$81	0xb08c10…
06-09 20:45:13	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	SELL	180	56¢	$101	0xac637c…
06-09 19:28:13	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	2,917	13¢	$379	0x151bab…
06-09 19:27:10	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	SELL	754	22¢	$166	0x0916ec…
06-09 19:25:37	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	SELL	1,736	34¢	$590	0x158df1…
06-09 19:04:01	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	SELL	25	56¢	$14	0x59b67f…
06-09 17:49:15	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	859	17¢	$146	0x3a6489…
06-09 17:20:22	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xc25c44…
06-09 17:20:18	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x33219c…
06-09 17:16:01	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	SELL	1,772	50¢	$886	0x5d0bf8…
06-09 17:01:52	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	SELL	320	46¢	$147	0xdfd345…
06-09 15:48:51	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	2,000	59¢	$1,180	0x459b2b…
06-09 15:25:54	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xdc5fbb…
06-09 14:38:51	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0x0af386…
06-09 13:58:45	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0x936aa9…
06-09 13:53:36	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	27	64¢	$17	0x498211…
06-09 13:52:04	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0xe7628a…
06-09 13:51:01	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	77	64¢	$49	0x726af9…
06-09 13:49:06	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x606dba…
06-09 13:19:33	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	BUY	2,000	82¢	$1,640	0x29c6e4…
06-09 12:58:51	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	22	64¢	$14	0x404bfd…
06-09 12:55:10	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x2ad54d…
06-09 12:54:57	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x8dd5c4…
06-09 11:58:09	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xd0e0f3…
06-09 11:57:09	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xd2b1b1…
06-09 11:55:03	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x1af0ac…
06-09 11:54:54	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	1,000	76¢	$760	0x676361…
06-09 10:52:46	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x179809…
06-09 10:52:45	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0x146b16…
06-09 10:20:03	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x447bfc…
06-09 10:10:34	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xf7c7eb…
06-09 09:52:24	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	480	47¢	$226	0x69af1f…
06-09 09:39:43	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xaa1dcb…
06-09 09:36:55	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x6edf45…
06-09 09:35:49	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	252	34¢	$86	0x9cc6ee…
06-09 09:35:36	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	300	34¢	$102	0xd6b7a2…
06-09 09:12:49	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	145	82¢	$119	0x2eea0b…
06-09 09:00:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	SELL	65	85¢	$55	0xabfcc5…
06-09 08:58:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	400	81¢	$324	0x1b0479…
06-09 08:56:39	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	932	85¢	$792	0x62efb5…
06-09 08:54:22	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0xd7a7fb…
06-09 08:48:25	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x0be03f…
06-09 08:44:46	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	48	85¢	$41	0x92b0fb…
06-09 08:31:34	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x8b6623…
06-09 08:30:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0xee2845…
06-09 06:21:16	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	65	34¢	$22	0xcdbf3e…
06-09 06:12:13	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	720	35¢	$252	0x085aa3…
06-09 06:10:00	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	No	BUY	320	76¢	$243	0xb757e4…
06-09 06:09:51	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xe5e763…
06-09 06:09:48	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0xeaeed7…
06-09 06:09:42	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	312	43¢	$133	0x5ac7b7…
06-09 06:09:30	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	208	34¢	$71	0xf0f28d…
06-08 20:04:52	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0xcf622f…