Excitable-Opossum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

86.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$500

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-11

last 06-13 18:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 100% +$3

Other

25% — —

Crypto

12% 80% $-6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+2	$2	76¢	$1	$-1	06-12 10:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$57	54	54	+0	open	—	05-23 19:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	4	$39	31	28	+3	open	—	05-23 19:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$36	42	42	+0	open	—	05-23 13:05
iran closes its airspace by june 15	7	$35	26	26	+0	open	—	06-08 04:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$34	19	19	+0	open	—	05-14 11:14
starmer out by july 31 2026	5	$29	24	24	+0	open	—	06-12 16:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$24	15	13	+2	open	—	06-12 10:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$23	14	14	+0	No	+$3	05-06 17:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$21	24	24	+0	open	—	05-18 13:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-18 05:06
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	06-03 20:33
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	06-08 15:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$15	28	0	+28	open	—	04-17 13:57
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	06-11 13:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	06-12 16:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	1	$10	12	0	+12	Down	+$2	05-07 19:23
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-15 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Up	+$1	05-07 18:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Up	$-10	05-07 21:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	05-07 19:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	05-07 19:03
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$8	18	18	+0	open	—	05-23 17:13
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	06-13 18:30
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	3	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	06-13 18:31
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$6	12	12	+0	open	—	05-23 13:09
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-14 12:11
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	06-12 16:14
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$3	12	12	+0	open	—	06-12 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	2	$2	5	5	+0	open	—	05-31 20:04
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$2	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-08 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 18:31:25	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xd84457…
06-13 18:31:00	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xc0241a…
06-13 18:30:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0xce2b41…
06-12 16:18:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x905551…
06-12 16:17:13	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xfdd447…
06-12 16:14:49	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x220406…
06-12 16:13:22	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0xe230ed…
06-12 10:15:33	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x6c4e67…
06-12 10:11:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xeab62c…
06-11 20:58:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0x6b12b1…
06-11 13:54:01	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x30c4ec…
06-11 13:51:03	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	18	57¢	$10	0xf76ea3…
06-08 16:33:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x14079a…
06-08 16:09:30	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xc86992…
06-08 15:36:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$7	0x78f793…
06-08 15:33:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x628b6d…
06-08 15:32:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x77d48c…
06-08 04:07:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x25930b…
06-07 09:20:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x901254…
06-06 15:07:15	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd7f77f…
06-05 15:33:51	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x9af086…
06-05 14:29:34	will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 5	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xd05530…
06-05 14:18:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x678d51…
06-05 14:17:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xdc8f14…
06-03 20:33:36	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x6a3402…
06-03 19:06:36	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x1d8c6d…
06-03 19:04:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0xe79655…
06-03 19:04:01	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x891814…
06-03 19:03:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x1808bf…
06-02 23:22:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x858a46…
06-02 23:14:17	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	18	84¢	$15	0x5754a6…
06-02 22:46:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x224558…
06-02 17:38:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xbca22d…
06-01 16:51:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x6e9760…
06-01 16:50:40	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x31ade0…
06-01 10:27:20	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x858c42…
05-31 20:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x314e55…
05-31 20:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa4fa47…
05-31 18:40:26	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x384f99…
05-31 18:39:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x0b45e9…
05-31 18:39:28	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x07f7c2…
05-31 18:36:12	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x0da61c…
05-31 18:33:01	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x9c1ee1…
05-24 14:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x3ede09…
05-24 14:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x363f9a…
05-24 14:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0x4ba0c5…
05-24 14:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xadcff5…
05-23 19:48:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x2a45bb…
05-23 19:26:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x2d04e9…
05-23 17:13:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0x14eecf…
05-23 17:11:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0x3e413f…
05-23 13:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x1a3173…
05-23 13:10:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0x99926c…
05-23 13:09:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0xe889d4…
05-23 13:05:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	14	68¢	$10	0x497644…
05-23 07:59:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xac9e4c…
05-23 07:58:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x12bb25…
05-20 17:03:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	14	23¢	$3	0x15d0d1…
05-20 15:37:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	35¢	$9	0x6acf7a…
05-20 15:34:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x64a7a8…
05-18 19:34:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	14	26¢	$4	0xbe7f63…
05-18 13:52:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	24	46¢	$11	0x83571c…
05-18 13:45:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xddade1…
05-18 13:09:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x03bf54…
05-18 05:06:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	11	86¢	$10	0x9e146e…
05-17 09:57:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x508de1…
05-15 18:39:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x239db2…
05-14 19:21:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x2c33d9…
05-14 12:11:21	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb7ae99…
05-14 11:14:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x5b26f7…
05-11 21:49:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x0a1b53…
05-10 19:23:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x5618a9…
05-10 19:21:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x157424…
05-07 21:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x8c8beb…
05-07 21:07:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x83d4f9…
05-07 20:28:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	14	69¢	$9	0xd16d74…
05-07 19:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xabfd7d…
05-07 19:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd7e9f0…
05-07 19:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x977d86…
05-07 18:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x392781…
05-06 20:39:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x9d40a4…
05-06 17:49:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$13	0xf106ed…
05-06 11:15:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x28390a…
05-04 21:53:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x47485b…
04-17 13:57:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x418f21…
04-11 08:01:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9eda62…