Subtle-Route — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$302

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$125

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 05-11 21:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

74% 100% +$18

Politics

26% 100% +$285

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	15	$3.3K	4,877	4,097	+780	open	—	05-11 21:18
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$499	400	400	+0	open	—	02-28 07:35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	2	$280	204	204	+0	open	—	04-08 11:59
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$224	772	772	+0	open	—	03-27 06:01
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$118	82	82	+0	Yes	+$18	04-24 15:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$100	385	0	+385	Yes	+$285	04-18 05:29
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	1	$100	359	0	+359	open	—	03-03 18:48
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	5	$86	100	0	+100	open	—	02-16 21:49
spx opens up or down on february 10 2026	1	$58	100	0	+100	open	—	02-09 21:18
will keir starmer say iran during the next prime ministers questions 459	1	$37	100	0	+100	open	—	02-09 22:10
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$30	200	0	+200	open	—	02-09 21:12
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$19	110	0	+110	open	—	02-09 21:12
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$6	100	0	+100	open	—	02-16 21:10
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?	1	$5	37	0	+37	open	—	02-27 20:29
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in March 2026 (ET)?	2	$3	26	0	+26	open	—	02-27 20:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 21:18:33	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	34¢	$83	0xf463b8…
05-11 21:18:17	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x4f053a…
05-11 21:18:00	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	536	33¢	$178	0x6075c0…
05-11 20:57:35	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,842	36¢	$667	0x22957d…
05-11 20:54:17	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x829e70…
05-11 20:31:32	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,742	38¢	$671	0xe00683…
05-11 18:38:45	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,057	19¢	$200	0xfe28e2…
05-11 18:11:49	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	23¢	$22	0x65ad59…
05-11 18:10:39	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	891	22¢	$200	0xd7f48a…
05-11 17:57:58	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	721	28¢	$200	0x20d668…
05-11 17:56:24	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	356	28¢	$100	0x3e5771…
05-11 17:54:49	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	362	28¢	$100	0xa3c0e0…
04-26 09:32:30	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	513	84¢	$431	0x8aa6f0…
04-24 15:37:06	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	82	83¢	$68	0x294a23…
04-20 18:09:04	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x401ee4…
04-18 05:29:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x2434e9…
04-18 05:26:08	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0xe65df7…
04-14 19:14:50	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x9a3814…
04-08 11:59:39	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	204	88¢	$180	0xbe086a…
03-27 21:57:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x998b07…
03-27 06:01:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	772	16¢	$124	0x9b8fe6…
03-25 01:52:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	772	13¢	$100	0x36047f…
03-03 18:48:47	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	359	28¢	$100	0x02c609…
02-28 07:35:25	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	400	100¢	$399	0x5a3b35…
02-27 20:29:17	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	37	12¢	$5	0x96d72c…
02-27 20:28:27	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in March 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x756f7d…
02-27 20:28:11	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in March 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x01e35b…
02-19 18:28:00	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x535c44…
02-16 21:49:27	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	44	86¢	$38	0xf43756…
02-16 21:25:25	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x1ad3f9…
02-16 21:22:43	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x186835…
02-16 21:16:07	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x9c7ff0…
02-16 21:11:51	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	33	86¢	$29	0x1d70d3…
02-16 21:10:31	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x6ffbce…
02-09 22:10:39	will keir starmer say iran during the next prime ministers questions 459	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xd2e553…
02-09 21:18:45	spx opens up or down on february 10 2026	Up	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x764750…
02-09 21:12:49	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xd6e733…
02-09 21:12:45	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	18¢	$13	0xad42c4…
02-09 21:11:45	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	18¢	$7	0x04f7c8…