Lumpy-Outlook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.1%

Resolved

154

Trades

350

lifetime

Volume

$698

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 05-14 04:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 48% $-6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 297 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	7	$70	72	72	+0	Up	+$20	05-11 16:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	2	$14	11	11	+0	Down	+$5	05-11 17:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	3	$14	19	16	+3	Up	+$5	05-12 08:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	05-11 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$13	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$11	15	15	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	3	$11	547	0	+547	Down	$-11	05-11 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	5	$10	10	10	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	4	$10	11	11	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 13:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	7	$9	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	4	$9	10	10	+0	Up	$-0	05-12 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	3	$8	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	05-12 13:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	3	$7	10	5	+5	Down	$-1	05-12 22:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	3	$6	15	5	+10	Down	$-1	05-12 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	4	$6	17	0	+17	Down	$-6	05-12 12:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	3	$5	12	12	+0	Up	$-0	05-12 12:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	2	$5	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 17:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 14:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Down	$-5	05-11 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	$-5	05-11 18:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 23:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 16:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 14:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 14:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 19:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 04:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1fe836…
05-13 01:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x1a60e1…
05-13 01:35:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb71de7…
05-13 01:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x36d5e6…
05-13 01:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x321ca5…
05-13 01:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x401dbe…
05-13 01:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x27408d…
05-13 01:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xcb570f…
05-13 01:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x42c2ad…
05-13 01:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xa45c31…
05-13 01:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xab8050…
05-13 01:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x464125…
05-13 01:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0xfa8f96…
05-13 01:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x2fc147…
05-13 01:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x0abfdf…
05-13 01:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xbb7c93…
05-13 01:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x3639d5…
05-13 01:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xade2fa…
05-13 00:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x55193e…
05-13 00:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	17¢	$0	0x1b8368…
05-13 00:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8acab8…
05-13 00:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xf5ea56…
05-13 00:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x157161…
05-13 00:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x462009…
05-13 00:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xe6e5ed…
05-13 00:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xb2b749…
05-13 00:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x541273…
05-13 00:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x8c2cce…
05-13 00:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb1382e…
05-13 00:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xf31c2d…
05-13 00:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x67c15d…
05-13 00:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x9fc7d2…
05-13 00:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb776a4…
05-12 23:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x1cbe2e…
05-12 23:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x355593…
05-12 23:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x95842c…
05-12 23:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x6d0dc1…
05-12 23:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x5eb997…
05-12 23:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0x510be6…
05-12 23:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x3498b2…
05-12 23:41:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xca5c1f…
05-12 23:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x9d6425…
05-12 23:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x68f161…
05-12 23:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xbc0dbb…
05-12 23:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x03ae2a…
05-12 22:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xad9c74…
05-12 22:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8b49b9…
05-12 22:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0xae8b0e…
05-12 22:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xe4e4f4…
05-12 22:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x4c9633…
05-12 22:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xf2cb75…
05-12 22:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x68cf73…
05-12 22:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x15ec1d…
05-12 22:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x0201fa…
05-12 22:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb9dcf4…
05-12 22:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xbfd00b…
05-12 22:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6a945d…
05-12 22:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x69b138…
05-12 22:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xfa23da…
05-12 22:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x2775a7…
05-12 22:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xba33f1…
05-12 22:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4b8551…
05-12 22:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x6f1301…
05-12 22:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x34fe29…
05-12 22:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x55d36b…
05-12 22:11:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x9b15eb…
05-12 22:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x4f4587…
05-12 22:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x31fb75…
05-12 22:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8bd0a6…
05-12 22:01:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xd3f9d7…
05-12 22:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3f3419…
05-12 21:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x90a58b…
05-12 21:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x85005d…
05-12 21:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xe581ae…
05-12 21:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6fef50…
05-12 21:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x61a8d2…
05-12 21:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd22626…
05-12 21:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xa0ec18…
05-12 21:40:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x50ffbb…
05-12 21:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xc01137…
05-12 21:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc0386b…
05-12 21:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x1520b5…
05-12 21:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x1f62bc…
05-12 21:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xdad167…
05-12 21:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3cb902…
05-12 21:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xfddc2b…
05-12 21:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8f107c…
05-12 21:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xd8ef89…
05-12 21:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3aa0fe…
05-12 21:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x092280…
05-12 21:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x0427ac…
05-12 21:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x8af31e…
05-12 21:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0f4710…
05-12 20:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xc1b395…
05-12 20:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6b6580…
05-12 20:46:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x135661…
05-12 20:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5de86d…
05-12 20:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0xa05dd3…
05-12 20:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x4c7819…
05-12 20:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6be2be…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	154	$130.8K	5,190	05-14 04:09
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	154	$40.4K	2,110	05-14 04:05
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	154	$40.1K	1,406	05-14 04:07
Wordy-Biosphere 0xa689…559b	154	$38.9K	1,672	05-14 04:06
Hard-Counter 0x32e4…beed	154	$37.5K	1,780	05-14 04:06
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	154	$36.5K	4,730	05-14 04:07
(anonymous) 0xbf33…6bf7	154	$36.1K	5,445	05-14 04:08
Aromatic-Freedom 0xc547…7b30	154	$36.1K	1,736	05-14 04:05