Quarterly-Temptation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$44

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 05-13 14:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 100% +$73

Other

24% 0% $-29

Politics

6% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$211	113	113	+0	Down	+$12	05-06 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	6	$146	121	121	+0	Up	+$56	05-13 14:59
btc updown 5m 1777032000	2	$99	119	0	+119	open	—	04-24 12:03
btc updown 5m 1777021500	2	$98	165	0	+165	open	—	04-24 09:06
btc updown 5m 1776946500	2	$75	103	0	+103	open	—	04-23 12:17
btc updown 5m 1776944400	1	$59	92	0	+92	open	—	04-23 11:41
btc updown 5m 1776950400	3	$51	71	32	+39	open	—	04-23 13:24
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	2	$49	31	31	+0	open	—	05-13 14:57
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$46	26	26	+0	Yes	+$6	05-05 18:55
btc updown 5m 1776943500	1	$44	75	0	+75	open	—	04-23 11:28
cs2 imperi sashia 2026 04 23	2	$39	25	24	+0	open	—	04-23 13:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$34	51	0	+51	open	—	04-27 15:16
dota2 pari sar1 2026 04 23	2	$33	18	18	+0	open	—	04-23 11:15
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	2	$31	26	26	+0	open	—	05-01 16:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$31	38	38	+0	open	—	05-13 14:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$31	34	34	+0	open	—	05-13 14:57
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	1	$29	67	0	+67	Under	$-29	05-06 11:00
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$27	31	31	+0	open	—	05-13 14:57
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record?	2	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	05-05 18:56
btc updown 5m 1776942900	1	$18	57	0	+57	open	—	04-23 11:18
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	1	$17	27	0	+27	open	—	04-23 06:19
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	1	$17	33	0	+33	open	—	04-24 06:21
cs2 psna lph 2026 04 23	1	$15	25	0	+25	open	—	04-23 07:20
btc updown 5m 1776946200	1	$15	23	0	+23	open	—	04-23 12:10
epl bou lee 2026 04 22 bou	1	$15	30	0	+30	open	—	04-22 12:20
btc updown 5m 1777011300	1	$15	36	0	+36	open	—	04-24 06:16
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$15	29	0	+29	open	—	04-23 11:32
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	1	$15	29	0	+29	open	—	04-29 14:33
epl bur mac 2026 04 22 mac	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	04-22 12:36
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	1	$15	19	0	+19	open	—	04-23 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 14:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	121	83¢	$101	0x3a0e2f…
05-13 14:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7b8c4c…
05-13 14:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x553c1a…
05-13 14:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x206016…
05-13 14:58:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	67	37¢	$25	0xac9222…
05-13 14:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x171ec3…
05-13 14:57:54	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	88¢	$27	0xe0a2ed…
05-13 14:57:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	24¢	$9	0xba1d49…
05-13 14:57:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	22¢	$8	0xeb8393…
05-13 14:57:14	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xbfed6c…
05-06 11:00:58	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	67	43¢	$29	0xa2f2a5…
05-06 10:58:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0x19b329…
05-06 10:57:36	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	71¢	$22	0xdeba8d…
05-06 10:57:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	67¢	$23	0x70048d…
05-06 10:57:04	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	72¢	$22	0x0a8cfb…
05-06 10:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	113	99¢	$111	0x6dfa89…
05-06 10:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0xe9c514…
05-05 18:56:34	English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record?	Yes	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x934244…
05-05 18:55:54	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x6f2376…
05-04 16:05:16	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x129c5d…
05-01 16:48:08	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	SELL	26	63¢	$16	0x4c3d92…
04-29 14:33:32	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xa95533…
04-29 14:32:14	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0xa4fdd9…
04-27 15:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	51	67¢	$34	0x21bf3a…
04-24 12:03:16	btc updown 5m 1777032000	Up	BUY	102	89¢	$91	0x896eb3…
04-24 12:01:02	btc updown 5m 1777032000	Up	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x1033bb…
04-24 09:14:08	btc updown 5m 1777021800	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2cef8c…
04-24 09:13:50	btc updown 5m 1777021800	Down	SELL	18	6¢	$1	0x9b82df…
04-24 09:12:06	btc updown 5m 1777021800	Down	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0x38609e…
04-24 09:06:08	btc updown 5m 1777021500	Down	BUY	109	76¢	$83	0xfe2a5a…
04-24 09:05:36	btc updown 5m 1777021500	Up	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x4ebc27…
04-24 09:02:30	btc updown 5m 1777021200	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xe62772…
04-24 06:21:30	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	51¢	$17	0x13d0ff…
04-24 06:16:36	btc updown 5m 1777011300	Down	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0xba31ba…
04-23 13:24:02	btc updown 5m 1776950400	Down	SELL	32	33¢	$11	0xcbc11e…
04-23 13:22:58	btc updown 5m 1776950400	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x6ca2fe…
04-23 13:22:30	btc updown 5m 1776950400	Down	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xda2333…
04-23 13:17:52	cs2 imperi sashia 2026 04 23	Imperial Academy	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3dcb2a…
04-23 12:17:26	btc updown 5m 1776946500	Down	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x768b02…
04-23 12:16:32	btc updown 5m 1776946500	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x3266ae…
04-23 12:10:56	btc updown 5m 1776946200	Up	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0x754069…
04-23 11:41:50	btc updown 5m 1776944400	Up	BUY	92	64¢	$59	0x6c163f…
04-23 11:34:50	cs2 lilmix yn 2026 04 23	Lilmix	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0x54695c…
04-23 11:32:20	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0x8a767f…
04-23 11:28:12	btc updown 5m 1776943500	Down	BUY	75	59¢	$44	0x12ff01…
04-23 11:18:00	btc updown 5m 1776942900	Down	BUY	57	31¢	$18	0x5b1ef4…
04-23 11:15:48	dota2 pari sar1 2026 04 23	PARIVISION	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa302e7…
04-23 07:25:04	English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xfcccff…
04-23 07:22:26	cs2 lilmix yn 2026 04 23	Lilmix	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x162d91…
04-23 07:21:42	cs2 imperi sashia 2026 04 23	Imperial Academy	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x29f4f7…
04-23 07:20:54	cs2 psna lph 2026 04 23	LPH Gaming	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xbf947b…
04-23 06:32:10	dota2 pari sar1 2026 04 23	PARIVISION	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x5131dc…
04-23 06:28:56	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x613e7e…
04-23 06:28:14	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x52eb3a…
04-23 06:19:04	Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	27	64¢	$17	0x63bd88…
04-22 15:01:36	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x10066d…
04-22 12:36:00	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 mac	Yes	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x763e68…
04-22 12:20:14	epl bou lee 2026 04 22 bou	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x93ff73…