Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$106

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

3.7%

Resolved

Trades

120

lifetime

Volume

$2.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$420

11 positions

First seen

2026-09-16

last 10-19 03:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

79% 20% -$90

Tech

17% — —

Politics

5% 0% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	+200	$130	92¢	$184	+$54	10-19 03:47
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	+108	$61	88¢	$96	+$35	10-14 10:16
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+50	$39	90¢	$44	+$5	09-30 15:50
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	+50	$43	72¢	$36	-$7	10-15 12:17
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	No	+200	$60	8¢	$16	-$44	10-15 12:49
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+50	$8	28¢	$14	+$6	10-15 12:16
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	+108	$53	12¢	$12	-$41	10-12 21:39
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+10	$8	80¢	$8	$0	10-19 03:48
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+50	$13	11¢	$5	-$8	09-28 21:21
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+3	$2	70¢	$2	+$0	09-16 11:27
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+10	$2	20¢	$2	+$0	10-18 17:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	9	$734	1,485	115	+1,370	No	-$21	10-19 03:47
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	5	$490	600	200	+400	open	—	10-19 03:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	7	$420	800	0	+800	Yes	-$20	10-16 04:41
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	20	$384	714	0	+714	No	-$27	10-14 07:16
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	7	$164	320	0	+320	Yes	-$4	10-14 16:16
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	7	$116	440	0	+440	Yes	-$16	09-20 18:06
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	8	$115	216	0	+216	open	—	10-14 10:16
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	9	$105	214	16	+198	Yes	-$2	10-19 03:48
Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	5	$59	120	0	+120	No	+$1	10-14 02:50
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	4	$55	100	0	+100	Yes	-$5	10-18 15:11
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	3	$54	100	0	+100	No	-$4	10-14 16:11
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	4	$53	99	0	+99	open	—	09-30 15:50
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	2	$50	100	0	+100	open	—	10-15 12:17
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	3	$26	30	10	+20	open	—	10-19 03:48
Will Alexi Giannoulias win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-19 03:47
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	5	$24	40	0	+40	No	-$4	10-18 21:18
Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	4	$20	40	0	+40	Yes	$0	10-18 19:28
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1?	5	$19	40	0	+40	No	+$1	09-16 15:37
Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?	2	$16	30	0	+30	open	—	10-18 17:21
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	2	$6	10	0	+10	open	—	10-15 09:32
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026?	2	$5	22	0	+22	No	-$3	10-12 21:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	09-16 11:27
Will Simon peak at Category 4?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	10-12 21:21
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 29, 2026?	1	$1	50	0	+50	No	-$1	10-12 20:28
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	2	$0	5	0	+5	Yes	$0	10-16 03:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 03:48:05	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x3a245a…
10-19 03:48:02	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0xb7ea24…
10-19 03:47:59	Will Alexi Giannoulias win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xb808cb…
10-19 03:47:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	115	12¢	$14	0x40b5e5…
10-19 03:47:51	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x39e550…
10-18 21:18:56	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd8ba31…
10-18 19:28:33	Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xb3348b…
10-18 19:02:15	Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x52a36c…
10-18 18:51:47	Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4e852c…
10-18 17:21:32	Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x9a2efd…
10-18 17:06:51	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x7a6bca…
10-18 16:33:44	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	84¢	$28	0x053dab…
10-18 16:02:18	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x576b8f…
10-18 15:11:44	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	15	57¢	$8	0xc39925…
10-16 06:15:21	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0xe9be04…
10-16 04:41:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	86	84¢	$72	0xcf1e56…
10-16 04:35:28	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x52a145…
10-16 04:05:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xedd996…
10-16 03:58:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x374f3b…
10-16 03:58:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	95	82¢	$78	0x45d6e4…
10-16 03:54:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	85	80¢	$68	0xbaa2b6…
10-16 03:45:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x58d1f8…
10-16 03:45:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x075887…
10-16 03:28:36	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x714aed…
10-16 03:28:33	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x1a8569…
10-15 21:48:17	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xf75324…
10-15 19:20:08	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x1c3805…
10-15 17:47:08	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0xc87cc1…
10-15 17:47:07	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x470fa4…
10-15 16:31:07	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xc258c5…
10-15 16:16:38	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x118610…
10-15 15:58:04	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0xf7ba66…
10-15 13:07:58	Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0xd20809…
10-15 12:49:17	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	98	28¢	$27	0x4dff5d…
10-15 12:47:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x20d623…
10-15 12:29:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x094648…
10-15 12:17:32	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xc553bc…
10-15 12:17:07	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xdfcbfa…
10-15 12:16:08	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x758a4a…
10-15 09:46:22	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xc6c2b4…
10-15 09:32:05	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xbce47d…
10-15 09:09:28	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	16¢	$7	0x48df9d…
10-15 07:43:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x71b088…
10-15 07:38:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xd2eef0…
10-15 06:28:44	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	102	32¢	$33	0x8e1107…
10-15 05:40:13	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xf4a5b4…
10-14 17:30:28	Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x7969f4…
10-14 17:23:57	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x3e1d5d…
10-14 16:16:57	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	42	8¢	$3	0x69c6eb…
10-14 16:11:42	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	78¢	$34	0x69e942…
10-14 13:19:02	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x736d97…
10-14 10:16:53	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0x93d8c9…
10-14 10:00:38	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xa587df…
10-14 08:12:58	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x383068…
10-14 08:02:23	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x1dca27…
10-14 07:55:44	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x5e7447…
10-14 07:21:07	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x3954dc…
10-14 07:16:56	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	87¢	$14	0xe05c77…
10-14 07:07:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0xea2234…
10-14 07:07:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc8c823…
10-14 07:00:04	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x097176…
10-14 06:48:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$25	0x287611…
10-14 05:50:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xb53862…
10-14 05:41:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xeb9548…
10-14 05:29:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x339738…
10-14 05:24:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0x263350…
10-14 05:12:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x88834e…
10-14 04:50:19	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x5a4940…
10-14 04:47:23	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xea5229…
10-14 04:30:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x777f09…
10-14 04:03:23	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x08be15…
10-14 03:21:31	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xde9f79…
10-14 03:10:31	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x6d98f3…
10-14 03:03:16	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xa4e8bb…
10-14 02:50:26	Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xa93383…
10-14 01:46:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xaca67c…
10-13 15:54:25	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x8c5d47…
10-13 14:34:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x4b7f09…
10-13 14:10:46	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0xfd14b8…
10-13 14:06:58	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xae4b83…
10-13 14:06:58	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x593aad…
10-13 14:00:52	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x290e1a…
10-13 12:58:59	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	80	40¢	$32	0x3b40af…
10-13 12:53:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x779dbd…
10-13 03:55:50	Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x7ec7d4…
10-12 21:45:44	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	41	51¢	$21	0xf425ae…
10-12 21:45:44	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x1d66ce…
10-12 21:39:41	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x9a0713…
10-12 21:21:00	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xf3089a…
10-12 21:20:54	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x36c647…
10-12 20:28:05	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x98a4b7…
10-12 18:21:18	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8879c9…
10-12 15:06:59	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x74233a…
10-12 11:59:59	Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x6b4d7e…
10-12 08:25:42	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xffb464…
10-12 04:05:50	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x9787cf…
10-08 11:45:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x97a602…
10-08 09:09:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x276c99…
10-07 17:45:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xb4ce9d…
10-07 09:27:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x159f62…