Subdued-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

82.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$146

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-08 13:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 86% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up		+8	$8	83¢	$7	$-1	05-08 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down		+8	$8	48¢	$4	$-4	05-08 13:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	05-08 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$13	0	13	-13	Down	$-1	05-07 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	1	$13	13	0	+13	Up	+$0	05-07 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	1	$11	11	0	+11	Up	+$0	05-07 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	Up	+$0	05-06 15:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	Down	+$0	05-06 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-08 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-08 11:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-08 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	Down	+$0	05-06 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$8	0	15	-15	Up	+$8	05-08 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-08 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-08 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-08 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-08 13:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 13:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x68d483…
05-08 13:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x610b2e…
05-08 12:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x5d0da9…
05-08 12:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xd8e801…
05-08 12:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x734576…
05-08 12:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc3779e…
05-08 12:09:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x098176…
05-08 11:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x74d89c…
05-08 11:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xf9984a…
05-08 00:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	15	55¢	$8	0x32d3ab…
05-07 22:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x92c33c…
05-07 22:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0x8ec5e5…
05-07 11:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x25473d…
05-06 16:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xfec28a…
05-06 15:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xd568b3…
05-06 15:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x723692…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	15	$2.71K	103	05-08 13:24
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	14	$1.69K	139	05-08 13:24
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	12	$1.27K	29	05-08 13:24
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	12	$955	81	05-08 13:24
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	12	$671	55	05-08 13:24
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	11	$4.63K	95	05-08 13:24
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	11	$767	49	05-08 13:24
Double-Compassion 0x5f02…c123	10	$1.61K	10	05-08 13:24