Third-Ladle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$195

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-04 23:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 100% +$1

Politics

12% — —

Other

11% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?	1	$494	494	+494	Yes	+$0	05-11 14:34
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$490	502	+502	open	—	05-15 21:46
bitcoin above 80k on april 17	1	$484	485	+485	open	—	04-17 00:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?	1	$478	478	+478	No	+$0	05-07 14:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?	2	$478	478	+478	open	—	05-02 00:28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?	2	$477	477	+477	open	—	05-03 22:30
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 30?	1	$285	285	+285	open	—	04-30 17:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27?	1	$265	265	+265	open	—	04-26 22:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26?	1	$264	265	+265	open	—	04-25 22:20
bitcoin above 84k on april 24	1	$264	264	+264	open	—	04-23 19:06
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$200	200	+200	open	—	05-12 21:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$200	200	+200	open	—	05-12 21:13
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$158	161	+161	open	—	04-19 23:18
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	1	$130	131	+131	open	—	04-18 15:18
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	2	$96	100	+100	open	—	04-19 18:00
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$55	55	+55	open	—	04-18 15:16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$21	21	+21	open	—	04-18 15:16
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$16	16	+16	open	—	04-18 15:21
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	1	$10	10	+10	open	—	06-04 23:09
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	04-18 15:17
bitcoin above 76k on april 18	1	$2	3	+3	open	—	04-18 15:21
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	05-07 14:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 23:09:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc02e33…
05-15 21:46:04	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	502	98¢	$490	0xde9af3…
05-12 21:13:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xdf0485…
05-12 21:12:56	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x860e8a…
05-11 14:34:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	494	100¢	$494	0x322034…
05-07 14:47:45	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa8b20d…
05-07 14:46:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?	No	BUY	478	100¢	$478	0x331ac7…
05-03 22:30:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	284	100¢	$284	0x51a6b6…
05-03 22:30:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	193	100¢	$193	0xf2a211…
05-02 00:28:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	285	100¢	$285	0x35d3c1…
05-02 00:28:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	193	100¢	$193	0xb99b2c…
04-30 17:10:32	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 30?	No	BUY	285	100¢	$285	0xf5491e…
04-26 22:57:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	265	100¢	$265	0x6ac513…
04-25 22:20:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	265	100¢	$264	0x3d989b…
04-23 19:06:12	bitcoin above 84k on april 24	No	BUY	264	100¢	$264	0xec518d…
04-19 23:18:56	USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	161	99¢	$158	0x03b8c7…
04-19 18:00:22	USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	59	96¢	$57	0x4a1305…
04-19 09:10:28	USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0x8c5a78…
04-18 15:21:46	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x0e281d…
04-18 15:21:02	bitcoin above 76k on april 18	Yes	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0x0b3d6f…
04-18 15:18:04	Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$130	0xf81ea3…
04-18 15:17:12	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb29151…
04-18 15:16:52	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xe4fcce…
04-18 15:16:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x47952e…
04-17 00:17:00	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	485	100¢	$484	0x366ada…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	17	$93.9K	1,654	06-05 17:58
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	12	$25.0K	218	06-04 19:32
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	11	$902	86	05-15 07:49
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	10	$1.40M	2,916	06-06 02:23
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	9	$238.5K	230	05-15 14:21
Intelligent-Length 0xdb5a…3965	9	$35.2K	331	05-11 07:11
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	9	$21.5K	197	05-18 07:44
(anonymous) 0x4247…91c4	9	$7.25K	154	06-02 20:35