Criminal-Aim — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$541

Unrealized P&L

-$515

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

Trades

534

lifetime

Volume

$19.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-24 15:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

64% 60% +$566

Other

25% 0% $-25

Sports

9% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		+3,432	$523	0¢	$9	$-515	06-23 05:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	15	$1.9K	3,753	0	+3,753	open	—	04-22 10:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$1.2K	3,667	800	+2,867	open	—	06-15 10:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$980	3,355	1,000	+2,355	open	—	05-28 21:36
sidemen charity match 2026 winner	73	$705	1,708	0	+1,708	open	—	04-18 15:34
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	27	$657	1,772	200	+1,572	open	—	05-13 13:26
will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	14	$639	943	0	+943	open	—	03-03 18:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$621	3,888	400	+3,488	open	—	05-26 13:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$523	3,432	0	+3,432	open	—	06-23 05:51
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	25	$501	1,108	0	+1,108	No	+$606	04-23 07:47
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$400	533	0	+533	open	—	06-24 15:12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$354	600	0	+600	open	—	06-19 04:42
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$350	589	0	+589	open	—	06-24 15:16
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$347	563	316	+247	open	—	04-02 21:42
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	24	$336	3,081	0	+3,081	open	—	01-28 11:39
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	19	$319	815	90	+725	No	$-57	04-22 11:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$319	725	300	+425	open	—	04-17 12:59
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$300	390	0	+390	open	—	01-04 06:08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	3	$292	1,050	0	+1,050	open	—	05-27 23:26
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$285	648	0	+648	open	—	01-27 23:52
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	36	$259	2,595	0	+2,595	open	—	05-17 09:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$250	347	0	+347	open	—	03-09 23:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1	$250	278	0	+278	open	—	04-17 13:13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	5	$231	2,264	0	+2,264	open	—	05-27 14:14
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	11	$202	501	1	+500	Yes	$-27	04-22 10:13
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	1	$200	909	0	+909	open	—	06-24 09:56
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$200	270	0	+270	open	—	03-30 20:15
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$200	267	0	+267	open	—	06-21 05:40
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$200	210	0	+210	open	—	01-16 08:38
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$198	412	0	+412	open	—	04-17 13:21
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	3	$195	1,450	0	+1,450	open	—	03-03 23:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 15:47:16	Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	131	6¢	$7	0x0aa1a0…
06-24 15:16:58	Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	71	5¢	$4	0xe101d0…
06-24 15:16:01	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	263	76¢	$200	0x67e360…
06-24 15:15:07	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	324	37¢	$120	0x050d3f…
06-24 15:13:38	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	484	31¢	$150	0x4fea18…
06-24 15:12:26	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x4cf818…
06-24 09:56:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	909	22¢	$200	0xd4d76c…
06-23 05:51:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x5c85c1…
06-21 05:41:43	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	553	9¢	$50	0x12590d…
06-21 05:40:29	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0x089a7c…
06-21 05:38:31	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	356	42¢	$150	0x6acdcf…
06-21 05:37:55	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x979682…
06-19 15:56:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x290d43…
06-19 04:42:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	59¢	$354	0xb55e88…
06-18 10:04:22	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Down	BUY	176	17¢	$30	0x081548…
06-16 03:48:21	Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	165	20¢	$33	0xaf102d…
06-16 02:23:52	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0xbe6500…
06-16 01:01:25	Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	87	20¢	$17	0x41244b…
06-16 00:57:58	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	178	5¢	$9	0x2b3ed3…
06-16 00:55:55	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x245df4…
06-16 00:52:43	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	326	46¢	$150	0x0b8cc8…
06-15 13:34:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	264	28¢	$74	0x0aa5b4…
06-15 13:34:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x9b0860…
06-15 13:34:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x0f00d4…
06-15 13:34:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0xa39a82…
06-15 13:34:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x3d04ee…
06-15 13:32:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0xd177a9…
06-15 13:32:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0xb6a63a…
06-15 13:32:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	94	28¢	$26	0x97dcc8…
06-15 13:31:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x93507b…
06-15 10:21:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	800	86¢	$690	0xcb9260…
06-15 02:03:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	444	27¢	$120	0x6b2274…
06-14 23:19:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	536	28¢	$150	0xd35826…
06-11 22:12:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,667	12¢	$200	0x8c8935…
06-11 01:39:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x8572bf…
06-03 22:40:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0xeef835…
06-03 22:39:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x4bab27…
06-03 22:39:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x522d5a…
06-03 22:35:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x4e455e…
06-03 22:34:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0x8a961c…
06-03 22:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	581	5¢	$27	0x41eeb8…
06-03 22:33:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xc70bd1…
06-03 22:33:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0xeabbe1…
06-03 22:29:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xa4a9a5…
06-03 22:28:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	147	5¢	$7	0xd1ce0a…
06-03 22:27:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xf2aae4…
06-01 22:46:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,143	7¢	$80	0xc5c742…
06-01 21:56:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	1,422	6¢	$81	0x69474b…
06-01 21:56:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	78	6¢	$4	0xda2229…
06-01 19:12:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	15¢	$12	0x5a8bcf…
06-01 19:12:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	15¢	$3	0x75d2d4…
06-01 19:12:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	15¢	$18	0xb0e5d2…
06-01 19:11:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	15¢	$18	0x898a34…
06-01 19:08:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	15¢	$24	0x2c13ba…
06-01 19:06:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xf80bcd…
06-01 19:06:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$75	0xb81441…
06-01 19:02:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	15¢	$16	0xd4dfa9…
06-01 19:02:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	15¢	$90	0xa15b33…
06-01 19:01:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0x4d99d1…
06-01 19:01:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	15¢	$35	0x643e54…
06-01 19:01:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x8a7926…
06-01 13:13:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0xba2763…
06-01 13:13:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	29¢	$12	0xac01ba…
06-01 13:13:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	29¢	$16	0xf5fcdb…
06-01 12:40:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	420	24¢	$100	0x6359f6…
05-28 21:36:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0xeb7c5c…
05-27 23:26:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	177	25¢	$44	0xfb3ec6…
05-27 23:26:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	123	25¢	$31	0xa12399…
05-27 22:27:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	750	29¢	$217	0x20caa5…
05-27 14:14:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	295	7¢	$21	0x9f1263…
05-27 14:13:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x3a8e4e…
05-27 13:04:32	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0x8d53c6…
05-27 12:58:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0x6f7ca5…
05-27 06:15:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	1,364	11¢	$150	0x711015…
05-26 13:58:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	962	26¢	$250	0x5014ee…
05-26 13:56:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xc83953…
05-26 11:52:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x10dec3…
05-26 00:11:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0x648dca…
05-26 00:11:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	1,000	2¢	$20	0xed1273…
05-25 23:37:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	10¢	$80	0x856616…
05-25 23:10:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	11¢	$88	0xa0665a…
05-25 22:24:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,998	1¢	$22	0x40fa42…
05-25 22:03:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	400	11¢	$45	0x7cbe06…
05-25 21:59:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0xd4be6f…
05-25 21:56:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	81	11¢	$9	0xcbfcd1…
05-25 21:55:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	10¢	$40	0x37de32…
05-25 21:55:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	32¢	$256	0x433412…
05-25 21:53:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	3,000	2¢	$54	0x656c3c…
05-24 03:23:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	384	39¢	$150	0x67b472…
05-24 01:52:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x79e230…
05-24 01:52:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xbba107…
05-24 01:51:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x4f71a7…
05-24 01:49:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	470	2¢	$9	0x83a0e7…
05-23 19:29:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	571	33¢	$188	0x152b93…
05-22 06:40:05	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x3e6ec7…
05-22 06:16:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0xc805d4…
05-22 06:13:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x0094f4…
05-22 06:09:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xe52857…
05-22 06:09:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xef1121…
05-22 06:09:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xfc7a7d…