Obedient-Seabass — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 05-12 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

45% 67% +$14

Politics

43% 33% +$9

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$49	29	29	+0	open	—	03-30 00:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$35	82	25	+57	open	—	02-28 16:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	3	$35	58	0	+58	open	—	03-31 07:04
will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	2	$34	12	26	-13	open	—	03-02 07:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$33	19	19	+0	open	—	01-27 05:38
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	2	$32	29	29	+0	open	—	03-06 07:30
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$29	20	20	+0	Yes	+$9	05-07 08:52
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	2	$25	16	16	+0	open	—	03-02 07:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$25	16	16	+0	open	—	03-02 07:17
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	2	$25	38	0	+38	open	—	01-22 03:11
will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	2	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	03-02 07:17
will russia capture rodynske by february 28	3	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-28 16:11
us seizes an iran linked oil tanker by feb 28	3	$22	31	25	+6	open	—	02-23 13:56
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	03-30 00:09
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	4	$20	27	27	+0	open	—	02-27 16:26
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$20	31	0	+31	No	+$11	05-07 08:56
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	1	$20	27	0	+27	open	—	01-12 02:40
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	2	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	01-19 03:07
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$20	25	25	+0	open	—	03-10 11:18
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	03-30 00:09
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$18	16	16	+0	open	—	01-17 03:04
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$17	19	19	+0	open	—	03-16 02:11
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	2	$16	16	16	+0	open	—	02-28 16:17
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by june 30	2	$15	14	14	+0	open	—	02-10 05:17
will russia enter sofiivka by january 31	2	$15	25	0	+25	open	—	01-20 08:29
han duck soo in jail by january 31	2	$15	23	0	+23	open	—	01-19 14:24
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$15	19	19	+0	No	$-5	05-08 11:10
will israel strike lebanon on january 30 2026	3	$14	19	9	+10	open	—	01-27 05:23
will russia join the board of peace	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	03-05 15:40
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	2	$14	14	14	+0	open	—	04-09 02:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 13:29:43	UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0xda0abc…
05-08 11:10:35	Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0xc0900b…
05-08 08:32:36	Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xc2e511…
05-07 08:56:40	Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x9e8416…
05-07 08:52:00	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x3650d0…
04-14 02:35:31	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0xe0624b…
04-09 02:51:41	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0x306f4e…
04-05 17:36:41	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x545704…
04-05 17:36:15	will iran strike uae again in march	No	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x8479b9…
04-05 05:21:41	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4cfc59…
04-03 11:02:47	will iran strike uae again in march	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x78237a…
03-31 07:04:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xb257a6…
03-30 00:11:08	Don Lemon charges dropped?	Yes	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0x7875e3…
03-30 00:09:34	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0x4e4c91…
03-30 00:09:26	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	SELL	14	95¢	$14	0x39f30f…
03-30 00:09:12	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x6fedce…
03-16 02:12:19	us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x5e1336…
03-16 02:11:59	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	19	35¢	$7	0x59569c…
03-10 11:18:27	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	25	38¢	$10	0x2e8c92…
03-10 06:54:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xfee254…
03-10 06:53:19	will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0xae21c8…
03-06 17:01:31	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0c4d21…
03-06 17:00:47	will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xb11ca1…
03-06 16:47:47	will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	Yes	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0x0c7205…
03-06 07:30:01	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	No	SELL	29	92¢	$27	0xbffaa4…
03-06 02:22:57	will iran strike kuwait in march	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x1c4e26…
03-05 15:58:05	will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xf5d4b8…
03-05 15:57:51	will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x28cbcc…
03-05 15:51:27	will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x034fbb…
03-05 15:45:03	will iran strike kuwait in march	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xafc106…
03-05 15:42:53	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x13f4b1…
03-05 15:40:07	will india join the board of peace	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x3921f8…
03-05 15:40:03	will russia join the board of peace	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x35c97c…
03-04 08:04:55	will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 6	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x6e50a2…
03-03 15:23:07	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x2625de…
03-03 15:20:39	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x4a4a2b…
03-02 07:34:37	UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x80d620…
03-02 07:29:21	us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7eb931…
03-02 07:23:11	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x5fcd50…
03-02 07:22:09	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x890881…
03-02 07:19:17	hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x8f0ea1…
03-02 07:18:55	Named storm forms before hurricane season?	No	SELL	9	59¢	$5	0xb34cd7…
03-02 07:18:25	will italy join the board of peace	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x8464e3…
03-02 07:17:53	will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0xccd4ce…
03-02 07:17:41	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0xabae45…
03-02 07:17:37	trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x227cfa…
03-02 07:17:13	will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	No	SELL	26	94¢	$24	0xcac1f9…
03-01 03:04:49	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x32e6b1…
02-28 16:18:39	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x72cac5…
02-28 16:17:51	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	No	SELL	16	40¢	$6	0x7565d0…
02-28 16:17:23	will marco rubio visit israel by march 2	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x2918b1…
02-28 16:12:19	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x13ff03…
02-28 16:12:01	will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	Yes	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x63578a…
02-28 16:11:43	will russia capture rodynske by february 28	No	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0x24c98b…
02-27 16:43:07	will marco rubio visit israel by march 2	Yes	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x749305…
02-27 16:35:35	will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x42603c…
02-27 16:33:01	will russia enter rizdvianka by february 28	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x9e3001…
02-27 16:32:37	will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x9e8e09…
02-27 16:31:45	us strike on somalia by february 28 399	No	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x317770…
02-27 16:26:49	Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x2957df…
02-27 16:26:45	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0xbf4eb5…
02-27 16:26:41	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	No	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0xb0f98c…
02-27 16:26:37	will russia enter bilytske by february 28	No	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x5a17fa…
02-25 07:20:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xb5698b…
02-23 13:56:14	us seizes an iran linked oil tanker by feb 28	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x3bd2a1…
02-23 13:55:12	nyse trading floor opening delayed monday	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xf68502…
02-23 13:50:12	us seizes an iran linked oil tanker by feb 28	Yes	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0x7b7afc…
02-23 04:58:22	us seizes an iran linked oil tanker by feb 28	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xfd68b9…
02-23 04:57:28	israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9ff1f2…
02-10 05:24:07	will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x0dac19…
02-10 05:21:07	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xf4fcc1…
02-10 05:17:17	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x461dee…
02-10 05:17:07	will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by june 30	Yes	SELL	14	38¢	$5	0x889061…
02-07 08:42:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xbc130c…
02-07 08:42:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x96d681…
02-07 08:42:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x0f335e…
02-07 08:40:49	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x11ab77…
02-03 15:22:28	Don Lemon charges dropped?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x0a4915…
02-02 02:58:16	bitcoin up or down february 1 11pm et	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2b0995…
02-02 02:58:04	gc up or down on february 2 2026	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xa62bcf…
02-02 02:51:54	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x4578f3…
02-02 02:51:16	Named storm forms before hurricane season?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x6b1fe3…
02-02 02:47:44	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xbf10cd…
02-02 02:46:58	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0xe6a954…
02-02 02:42:22	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	136	2¢	$3	0x81c414…
02-02 02:40:16	will golden ejae and mark sonnenblick win song of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x861e02…
02-02 02:39:54	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x61a1c7…
02-02 02:39:20	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xe419a1…
02-02 02:38:34	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xeb0bbe…
02-02 02:35:18	will keir starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions 229	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x3c079f…
02-02 02:32:54	will russia enter rizdvianka by february 28	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x7896fa…
02-02 02:32:36	will russia capture rodynske by february 28	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xdc42b5…
02-02 02:32:20	will russia enter bilytske by february 28	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x526196…
02-02 02:32:10	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x335773…
02-02 02:32:08	will russia capture rodynske by february 28	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x91031f…
02-02 02:30:58	will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2c7dea…
02-02 02:30:42	will russia enter zaliznychne by february 28	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x65a9ba…
02-02 02:30:34	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x4a516f…
02-02 02:30:30	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x22fb74…
01-28 09:56:25	ndx up or down on january 28 2026	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x51d3ff…