Optimistic-Asphalt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$410

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

95.8%

Resolved

Trades

172

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$52

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-22 07:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

79% 100% +$404

Politics

9% — —

Other

8% 67% +$6

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		-60	$-55	88¢	$-52	+$2	06-02 17:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Lakers vs. Thunder	2	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	Thunder	+$390	05-05 10:43
76ers vs. Celtics	1	$1.1K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	05-02 05:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	113	$1.0K	4,110	100	+4,010	open	—	03-21 04:45
nba phx okc 2026 04 19	1	$1000	1,111	0	+1,111	open	—	04-19 08:33
nba phi bos 2026 04 21	1	$890	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-20 10:21
Thunder vs. Suns	1	$710	910	0	+910	open	—	04-25 05:34
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	1	$576	800	0	+800	open	—	05-03 04:29
nba gsw lac 2026 04 15	1	$560	836	0	+836	open	—	04-15 08:09
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	1	$483	700	0	+700	open	—	05-21 10:40
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	10	$336	215	215	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 07:43
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$240	182	182	+0	open	—	01-26 08:57
nba mil okc 2026 02 12	1	$235	276	0	+276	open	—	02-12 06:14
lol nip jdg 2026 04 17	1	$200	800	0	+800	open	—	04-17 10:15
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	8	$143	100	82	+18	Up	+$5	05-06 08:03
nba tor cle 2026 04 18	1	$143	620	0	+620	open	—	04-16 10:22
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	2	$138	100	100	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 05:26
nba den min 2026 04 23	1	$104	230	0	+230	open	—	04-23 07:24
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	1	$100	122	0	+122	open	—	02-13 05:49
ufc son sea1 2026 01 24	3	$90	250	0	+250	open	—	01-20 04:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$73	40	40	+0	open	—	04-27 08:54
nba sas det 2026 02 23	1	$70	132	0	+132	open	—	02-23 11:20
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$55	0	60	-60	open	—	06-02 17:58
nba sas okc 2026 01 13	1	$51	73	0	+73	open	—	01-13 09:17
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	1	$45	133	0	+133	open	—	02-09 04:18
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	1	$43	110	0	+110	open	—	05-01 06:03
76ers vs. Knicks	1	$36	50	0	+50	Knicks	+$14	05-04 08:43
Celtics vs. 76ers	1	$33	100	0	+100	open	—	04-30 05:38
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)	2	$19	56	56	+0	open	—	05-30 13:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	02-27 05:43
nba okc phx 2026 02 11	1	$11	16	0	+16	open	—	02-11 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-23 09:59:49	btc updown 15m 1782207900	Down	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xe745a4…
06-23 09:57:41	btc updown 15m 1782207900	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8e9437…
06-22 07:38:10	btc updown 15m 1782113400	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6c4e41…
06-22 07:33:59	btc updown 15m 1782113400	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x73ffd6…
06-21 05:55:01	btc updown 5m 1782021000	Up	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0x05558e…
06-21 05:54:43	btc updown 5m 1782021000	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xdebef4…
06-18 09:51:55	btc updown 5m 1781776200	Up	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0xa8ff32…
06-02 17:58:12	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	91¢	$55	0xec8890…
05-30 13:30:03	UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Deiveson Figueiredo	SELL	56	17¢	$9	0x939536…
05-29 11:49:11	UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Deiveson Figueiredo	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xa1aa25…
05-21 10:40:52	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	700	69¢	$483	0xfa20b7…
05-06 08:03:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0x43b503…
05-06 07:43:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	101	79¢	$80	0x67bcef…
05-06 06:49:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x9b5816…
05-06 06:34:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0x9814e5…
05-06 06:34:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x4efc24…
05-06 06:09:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x98686f…
05-06 06:01:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	29	79¢	$23	0xb4e5d6…
05-06 06:01:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x3d27ba…
05-06 06:01:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x1eca53…
05-06 06:01:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	16	79¢	$12	0x5be8eb…
05-06 06:00:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x818ecd…
05-06 05:53:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	111	78¢	$87	0xa630d5…
05-06 05:26:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x733263…
05-06 05:22:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xb4b9d5…
05-06 05:20:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x10fd38…
05-06 05:18:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xb45257…
05-06 05:18:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xa666aa…
05-06 05:18:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x5a2fb3…
05-06 05:15:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x381d90…
05-06 05:07:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xa7667d…
05-05 10:43:34	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	1,400	87¢	$1,218	0x022e46…
05-05 09:09:12	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	1,600	87¢	$1,392	0x6ac191…
05-04 08:43:54	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xbd10ad…
05-03 04:29:34	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	800	72¢	$576	0x1c3f71…
05-02 05:55:06	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	1,500	71¢	$1,065	0x71dfbd…
05-01 06:03:04	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Raptors	BUY	110	39¢	$43	0x6c5cbd…
04-30 05:38:36	Celtics vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xa342f3…
04-27 08:54:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xdd7d2b…
04-25 05:34:14	Thunder vs. Suns	Thunder	BUY	910	78¢	$710	0x148246…
04-23 07:24:54	nba den min 2026 04 23	Timberwolves	BUY	230	45¢	$104	0xeb8f97…
04-20 10:21:22	nba phi bos 2026 04 21	Celtics	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x69fb44…
04-19 08:33:02	nba phx okc 2026 04 19	Thunder	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x087414…
04-17 10:15:48	lol nip jdg 2026 04 17	Ninjas in Pyjamas	BUY	800	25¢	$200	0x26693b…
04-16 10:22:14	nba tor cle 2026 04 18	Raptors	BUY	620	23¢	$143	0xc8f4c3…
04-15 08:09:06	nba gsw lac 2026 04 15	Clippers	BUY	836	67¢	$560	0x7662da…
04-12 10:16:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x2ed52f…
03-21 04:45:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x019940…
03-21 04:18:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	112	24¢	$27	0xa4e6c4…
03-21 04:17:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	65	24¢	$16	0x63cb33…
03-21 04:17:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x4abeba…
03-21 04:17:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x2fede0…
03-21 04:17:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xa950f5…
03-21 04:16:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	51	24¢	$12	0x2e7cc2…
03-21 04:16:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	48	24¢	$12	0x534104…
03-21 04:16:25	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x9dd30d…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xe081ee…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0xc6a459…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xbcc050…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	71	24¢	$17	0xb982fe…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0xaf31c0…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0xaaa9a1…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x9b991e…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x97ac36…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0x65d6a3…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0x2a6662…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	22	24¢	$5	0x1caf8e…
03-21 04:16:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x1b437c…
03-21 04:16:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	14	24¢	$3	0x9bb59c…
03-21 04:15:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0xa534f2…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xeb5216…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xd80143…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x8b518f…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0x709c23…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x51f442…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	19	24¢	$5	0x4470f3…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0x2540d6…
03-21 04:15:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x1b94eb…
03-21 04:15:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0xd0ed23…
03-21 04:15:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0x97c2e1…
03-21 04:14:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	204	24¢	$49	0x5146b1…
03-21 04:14:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0xd377e1…
03-21 04:13:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0xab67de…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xfd8429…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xe2d243…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xc9cdfb…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xc095e1…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xba302a…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x8e176b…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0x7574bf…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x73fd30…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0x6b2a01…
03-21 04:13:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0x5fcf33…
03-21 04:12:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	82	24¢	$20	0x3ce077…
03-21 04:12:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xba21e5…
03-21 04:11:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xd7796e…
03-21 04:10:47	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0x8e7f3b…
03-21 04:10:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0xe0762c…
03-21 04:10:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0xd70c4d…
03-21 04:10:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xc2b406…