Realized P&L
-$642
Unrealized P&L
-$43
Hit rate
13.8%
Resolved
15
Trades
6,138
lifetime
Volume
$382.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$62
Open exposure
$352
14 positions
First seen
2026-01-10
last 06-12 08:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 9 days
Categories
Politics
41% 62% $-474
Crypto
39%
Other
18% 67% +$2
Sports
2% 0% $-170
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +350 $131 20¢ $70 $-61 06-07 16:02
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No +62 $40 88¢ $54 +$14 06-02 10:37
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -67 $-40 52¢ $-34 +$6 06-12 08:33
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No -32 $-32 99¢ $-32 $-0 06-10 13:26
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No -33 $-31 97¢ $-32 $-1 06-11 16:20
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No +41 $28 63¢ $25 $-2 06-15 14:13
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No -22 $-21 97¢ $-21 $-0 06-10 13:26
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +22 $19 90¢ $20 +$1 06-05 00:19
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No -17 $-16 96¢ $-16 $-0 06-11 16:19
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No -18 $-12 84¢ $-15 $-3 06-04 00:22
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No -10 $-10 99¢ $-10 $-0 06-10 13:26
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No -10 $-10 98¢ $-10 $-0 05-28 17:46
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +10 $6 79¢ $8 +$2 06-05 00:19
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -38 $-6 10¢ $-4 +$2 06-11 16:19