Overlooked-Cause — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

47.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$150

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 05-09 17:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

72% 50% +$8

Other

22% 0% $-1

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$50	26	26	+0	No	$-0	05-09 17:12
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	3	$46	112	112	+0	Yes	+$8	05-01 10:35
James Comey arrested by May 15?	2	$13	38	38	+0	open	—	04-29 07:59
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-08 21:00
will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	03-18 16:53
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-02 10:39
bun bay moe 2026 03 06 bay	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	03-06 15:46
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$4	4	4	+0	open	—	05-05 16:47
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$2	6	6	+0	open	—	05-05 16:49
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants	2	$1	7	7	+0	Mumbai Indians	$-1	05-04 17:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	1	$1	14	0	+14	open	—	04-29 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 17:12:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0xc6334f…
05-09 17:10:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xe005c1…
05-05 16:49:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x281a86…
05-05 16:47:58	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0xc69e77…
05-05 16:36:06	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xe2648d…
05-04 17:58:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x16186d…
05-04 17:35:52	Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants	Lucknow Super Giants	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x986e62…
05-04 16:55:54	Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants	Lucknow Super Giants	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5d8de7…
05-02 10:39:10	UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Colby Thicknesse	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcff395…
05-01 16:53:16	UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Colby Thicknesse	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdf7e1e…
05-01 10:35:10	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	SELL	56	21¢	$12	0xfc41bf…
04-29 07:59:10	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	SELL	38	22¢	$8	0xdb3f4a…
04-29 06:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3b7703…
04-29 06:31:38	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x955935…
04-29 06:13:50	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	SELL	56	28¢	$16	0xa5af1b…
04-23 17:29:00	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	112	17¢	$19	0xe753fe…
03-18 16:53:21	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	No	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x24f084…
03-11 14:42:51	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xb8594a…
03-08 21:00:19	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x59fbaa…
03-06 15:46:21	bun bay moe 2026 03 06 bay	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xb863f8…
03-06 15:45:13	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfb9ce3…