Our-Metallurgist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

36.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$81

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 06-24 21:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 50% $-7

Other

36% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?	Yes		+13	$8	40¢	$5	$-2	06-16 03:05
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-10	$-4	38¢	$-4	+$0	06-24 21:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$10	21	0	+21	Down	$-10	05-12 02:44
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?	2	$8	13	0	+13	open	—	06-16 03:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$7	19	19	+0	Down	$-3	05-11 02:14
will spy reach 770 in june 2026	1	$6	20	0	+20	open	—	06-15 00:32
will spy dip to 740 in june 2026	1	$6	10	0	+10	open	—	06-04 00:25
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	2	$5	10	10	+0	open	—	04-23 15:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-01 23:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	+$3	05-11 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-12 02:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-30 01:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-30 02:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$4	0	10	-10	open	—	06-24 21:55
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$3	10	9	+1	open	—	04-23 15:33
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	06-15 00:47
will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	06-17 10:45
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	05-25 14:36
btc updown 5m 1776826200	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-22 02:52
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	6	$1	100	100	+0	open	—	04-22 04:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 21:55:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xa525a0…
06-17 10:45:25	will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x86bea6…
06-16 03:05:58	Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x9f7aef…
06-16 02:57:07	Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x2f5378…
06-15 00:47:30	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x3f013b…
06-15 00:32:48	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x230cdd…
06-04 00:25:30	will spy dip to 740 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x51566c…
05-25 14:36:38	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x411c8d…
05-12 02:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x271f4d…
05-12 02:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x89a025…
05-12 02:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xa90132…
05-11 12:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3eb70b…
05-11 02:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0x8dc6c4…
05-11 02:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xe05b3c…
05-01 23:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0bba21…
04-30 02:32:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf06556…
04-30 01:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x22ca7b…
04-23 15:33:54	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xa966eb…
04-23 15:33:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xcd65fc…
04-22 15:07:08	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x0fd3cc…
04-22 15:02:26	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x283ff3…
04-22 04:02:50	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	99	0¢	$0	0xa10070…
04-22 03:41:30	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xfcb1fa…
04-22 03:35:50	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xac4526…
04-22 02:52:54	btc updown 5m 1776826200	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5d4e79…
04-22 02:16:44	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x30b997…
04-22 01:47:58	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x123ccc…
04-22 00:51:30	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x9328c7…