Realized P&L
-$1.30K
Unrealized P&L
+$578
Hit rate
47.8%
Resolved
10
Trades
17,389
lifetime
Volume
$1.09M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$63
Open exposure
$12.8K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-23 06:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
73% 43% $-1,296
Other
18% 0% $-6
Crypto
6% 100% +$0
Sports
2%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 423 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +7,842 $6,050 70¢ $5.5K $-522 07-22 10:40
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +2,183 $1,031 58¢ $1.3K +$246 07-22 13:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +721 $199 99¢ $714 +$515 07-01 19:09
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +615 $227 86¢ $529 +$302 07-12 13:46
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No -539 $-474 88¢ $-477 $-3 07-06 12:25
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +622 $419 76¢ $476 +$57 06-04 22:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +572 $301 78¢ $449 +$148 06-24 03:48
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +500 $238 88¢ $437 +$199 06-30 16:33
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -476 $-506 81¢ $-386 +$120 07-21 14:46
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,070 $583 12¢ $384 $-199 07-20 07:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -729 $-902 50¢ $-361 +$541 07-23 04:38
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No -271 $-237 92¢ $-249 $-12 07-01 21:46
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -254 $-277 90¢ $-230 +$47 07-03 20:05
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +2,495 $184 $187 +$3 07-19 06:43
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No -186 $-170 82¢ $-153 +$17 07-21 07:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +15,745 $1,475 $150 $-1,325 07-19 10:21
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +139 $94 94¢ $132 +$38 07-05 03:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +200 $90 64¢ $129 +$39 06-04 19:03
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +127 $94 89¢ $113 +$19 06-01 03:55
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -124 $-106 89¢ $-111 $-5 06-22 12:53
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -249 $-205 36¢ $-91 +$114 07-22 05:53
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $98 42¢ $83 $-15 07-20 20:08
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes +1,388 $66 $78 +$12 07-08 09:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $-201 30¢ $29 +$230 07-10 09:36
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +61 $5 26¢ $16 +$11 07-12 09:30
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No +13 $11 92¢ $12 +$1 06-25 15:51
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes +5 $0 $0 +$0 07-20 07:57