Warped-Shirt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

674

lifetime

Volume

$29.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 06-07 21:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

74% — —

Crypto

18% 100% +$2

Other

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	12	$3.2K	2,848	2,815	+33	open	—	05-29 18:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	17	$2.2K	2,151	690	+1,461	open	—	04-07 04:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	10	$2.0K	1,821	1,821	+0	open	—	04-10 04:44
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	27	$1.6K	1,724	250	+1,474	open	—	05-29 18:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	24	$1.4K	1,383	1,383	+0	open	—	04-17 15:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$1.3K	860	860	+0	open	—	05-29 17:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$1.3K	1,353	338	+1,015	open	—	06-07 21:16
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$1.2K	1,107	1,081	+26	open	—	04-18 13:15
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	3	$951	1,376	0	+1,376	open	—	06-07 21:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	9	$805	784	784	+0	open	—	04-17 15:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$731	705	705	+0	open	—	04-08 05:05
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	29	$667	752	752	+0	open	—	03-21 10:31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	15	$631	813	1,013	-200	open	—	04-17 15:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	8	$586	353	353	+0	open	—	03-23 16:44
btc updown 5m 1775539500	2	$520	575	0	+575	open	—	04-07 05:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$495	596	0	+596	open	—	04-18 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	6	$487	480	114	+366	open	—	05-16 00:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$412	237	237	+0	open	—	02-28 23:46
will trump say middle east during the 2026 state of the union address 349	3	$375	310	140	+170	open	—	02-25 03:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$346	224	224	+0	open	—	05-13 00:52
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$322	170	170	+0	open	—	02-28 23:53
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	2	$318	189	189	+0	open	—	03-01 00:22
iran strike on israel by february 28	14	$313	4,451	4,451	+0	open	—	02-28 21:49
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$308	604	604	+0	open	—	02-21 00:09
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	5	$298	302	302	+0	open	—	02-27 03:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	3	$280	209	209	+0	open	—	05-30 21:09
btc updown 5m 1771647600	2	$262	188	185	+3	open	—	02-21 04:23
will trump say nuclear during the 2026 state of the union address	2	$244	126	126	+0	open	—	02-25 03:28
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	13	$219	506	506	+0	open	—	03-21 19:55
btc updown 5m 1776518400	3	$216	241	15	+227	open	—	04-18 13:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 21:16:45	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	372	75¢	$280	0x8edf40…
06-07 21:16:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	338	82¢	$277	0x7b3535…
06-07 21:07:39	btc updown 5m 1780866300	Down	SELL	23	23¢	$5	0x419b09…
06-07 21:06:00	btc updown 5m 1780866300	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x4e2ac6…
06-07 21:05:12	btc updown 5m 1780866300	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x410bb5…
06-05 02:32:27	btc updown 5m 1780626600	Down	SELL	11	19¢	$2	0x81ba0f…
06-05 02:30:36	btc updown 5m 1780626600	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x58d12a…
06-04 15:57:54	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Up	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x62517c…
06-04 15:57:42	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x84cabb…
06-04 15:57:31	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Down	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0xa3d89d…
06-04 15:57:18	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x0133c2…
06-04 15:57:03	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Up	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0xc17c60…
06-04 15:56:03	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Down	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x53efb6…
06-04 15:55:57	btc updown 5m 1780588500	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xadf623…
06-04 15:52:58	btc updown 5m 1780588200	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x458c35…
06-04 13:33:04	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	1,002	67¢	$670	0xddce18…
06-02 15:44:32	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x07bf5a…
06-02 15:41:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,351	74¢	$1,000	0x893a41…
06-01 19:07:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x89b710…
06-01 18:51:48	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xb92426…
06-01 18:46:38	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb0e9bf…
05-30 21:09:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	SELL	207	67¢	$139	0xd65500…
05-30 21:02:54	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x671f0a…
05-29 18:17:41	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	885	89¢	$785	0x682a8b…
05-29 18:16:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,567	50¢	$776	0x325cfe…
05-29 18:14:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	SELL	38	22¢	$8	0x90c5aa…
05-29 17:26:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	73¢	$92	0x5fd13b…
05-29 17:26:21	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	123	75¢	$93	0xe9526c…
05-29 17:22:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	826	74¢	$611	0xe0d26d…
05-29 17:21:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	710	85¢	$603	0x49c103…
05-29 17:20:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	268	74¢	$200	0x4b2f42…
05-29 17:19:43	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	245	85¢	$207	0x32e7bc…
05-29 16:40:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	347	75¢	$260	0xbe6b03…
05-29 16:37:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,181	22¢	$260	0x65d2dd…
05-28 23:33:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	BUY	209	67¢	$140	0x6a52ee…
05-28 23:20:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	88¢	$132	0x374b4d…
05-28 23:19:04	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	119	75¢	$90	0x9950e2…
05-28 23:18:19	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xcfa019…
05-28 23:15:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	38	23¢	$9	0x9b53f2…
05-28 22:58:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	44	83¢	$37	0xb43e8c…
05-28 22:58:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	83¢	$19	0x2349aa…
05-28 00:03:53	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	106	24¢	$26	0xdfb69f…
05-24 00:17:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x00a94f…
05-21 03:11:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xeaf3ec…
05-21 03:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0b0021…
05-21 02:58:56	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x646bd8…
05-21 01:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x7aa6db…
05-21 01:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb7b930…
05-21 01:38:29	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	103	78¢	$80	0xf307ea…
05-21 01:37:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x60f644…
05-21 01:36:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xf3402e…
05-17 22:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0xe4fb1c…
05-17 22:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x80b4cd…
05-17 22:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xbd2088…
05-16 01:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	148	13¢	$19	0x85ee9b…
05-16 01:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x16841c…
05-16 01:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xc58b9e…
05-16 01:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	24	22¢	$5	0x1f537d…
05-16 01:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x30ca9c…
05-16 01:04:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	112	42¢	$47	0x85ff12…
05-16 01:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb55658…
05-16 01:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa67e9e…
05-16 01:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x0635f3…
05-16 01:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x982b17…
05-16 01:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0x699809…
05-16 01:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x454ae4…
05-16 00:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	136	66¢	$90	0xebfd9e…
05-16 00:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x043616…
05-16 00:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xdf8113…
05-16 00:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x624e19…
05-16 00:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x18a677…
05-16 00:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	114	72¢	$82	0xc026f5…
05-16 00:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	114	79¢	$90	0x66ce1c…
05-14 03:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0xf5a5d8…
05-14 03:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa65475…
05-14 03:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe1a3ad…
05-14 03:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9e32ae…
05-13 00:52:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	224	92¢	$206	0x79a493…
05-08 16:36:48	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	23	63¢	$15	0x32c8d7…
05-08 15:10:29	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x782c2e…
05-08 14:47:05	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x803b7d…
05-08 14:23:35	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0xbee2db…
05-08 13:41:15	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0xd608d0…
05-07 22:31:54	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xe1a4a0…
05-07 22:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x63074c…
05-07 22:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4fa5df…
05-07 22:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	61	71¢	$43	0xc2c995…
05-07 22:27:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xa0480f…
05-07 22:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x8d7de4…
05-07 22:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x4db930…
05-07 22:25:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0x732199…
05-07 22:21:26	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x12bef2…
05-07 22:20:41	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xbcd3c9…
05-07 22:20:09	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x0407f4…
05-07 22:15:08	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xa4d79a…
05-07 22:15:01	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	24	66¢	$16	0x6156b7…
05-07 22:13:39	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb4b714…
05-07 22:13:34	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xc9c16d…
05-07 22:13:25	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x1703ea…
05-07 22:10:33	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xcc9a9a…