Realized P&L
+$126
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
85.3%
Resolved
7
Trades
1,831
lifetime
Volume
$44.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$2.14K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 02:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
35% 50% +$85
Sports
34% 100% +$4
Other
28% 50% +$37
Tech
2%
Crypto
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No +746 $500 75¢ $560 +$60 06-03 04:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +200 $180 90¢ $181 +$1 06-08 10:34
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No -188 $-169 94¢ $-178 $-8 05-29 07:42
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Yes -190 $-80 82¢ $-155 $-75 05-29 21:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No -178 $-126 80¢ $-143 $-17 06-01 14:51
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes -181 $-142 75¢ $-136 +$6 06-02 11:29
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes -132 $-117 94¢ $-123 $-6 06-01 02:58
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Yes +100 $98 98¢ $98 +$0 06-09 17:27
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes +100 $80 84¢ $84 +$4 06-06 16:28
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? No +100 $73 65¢ $65 $-8 06-02 20:23
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes -181 $-70 32¢ $-57 +$12 06-10 01:54
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes -60 $-54 90¢ $-55 $-0 06-09 01:36
US x China Military clash before 2027? Yes -750 $-54 $-53 +$2 06-08 07:31
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes +50 $36 100¢ $50 +$14 06-07 20:42
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes +60 $44 82¢ $49 +$4 06-06 02:46
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes +38 $30 84¢ $32 +$3 05-28 15:56
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +110 $30 27¢ $30 +$0 05-29 13:49
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes +100 $24 25¢ $25 +$1 06-09 08:17
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No -30 $-23 83¢ $-25 $-2 05-29 06:10
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? No -30 $-22 74¢ $-22 $-0 06-06 08:35
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Yes -41 $-20 36¢ $-15 +$6 06-09 00:06
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Yes -6 $-5 66¢ $-4 +$1 05-31 10:46