Lost-Mutton — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$91

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

50.7%

Resolved

Trades

356

lifetime

Volume

$19.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 06-12 03:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

50% — —

Politics

28% — —

Crypto

19% — —

Sports

2% 33% $-91

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No		-2	$-1	53¢	$-1	+$0	06-12 03:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	74	$4.4K	7,359	7,359	+0	open	—	03-09 02:13
will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	16	$857	469	517	-48	open	—	03-03 10:10
btc updown 15m 1770732900	9	$849	941	649	+293	open	—	02-10 14:27
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	14	$794	536	536	+0	open	—	03-05 08:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$761	731	731	+0	open	—	01-28 14:43
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$726	529	529	+0	open	—	03-22 14:54
spx up or down on january 28 2026	9	$633	907	0	+907	open	—	01-28 15:27
will trump meet with emmanuel macron in january 2026	2	$570	316	316	+0	open	—	01-23 08:12
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	10	$533	390	390	+0	open	—	03-04 18:12
us forces seize another oil tanker by january 25 2026	4	$479	289	289	+0	open	—	01-25 16:33
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	4	$474	405	405	-0	open	—	03-04 18:13
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?	16	$398	343	343	+0	open	—	02-27 09:24
will trump meet with friedrich merz in january 2026	5	$291	263	263	+0	open	—	01-21 15:15
btc updown 15m 1770731100	4	$290	199	196	+3	open	—	02-10 14:01
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$281	780	0	+780	open	—	03-31 10:29
btc updown 5m 1771237800	6	$275	192	189	+3	open	—	02-16 10:33
btc updown 5m 1770916500	1	$266	387	0	+387	open	—	02-12 17:17
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	2	$255	159	159	+0	open	—	01-22 08:15
will germany join the board of peace	2	$249	149	149	+0	open	—	01-21 15:14
btc updown 5m 1770904800	10	$239	508	0	+508	open	—	02-12 14:00
will bayer leverkusen advance to the round of 16	2	$238	145	145	+0	open	—	02-19 08:37
spx opens up or down on january 28 2026	2	$227	120	120	+0	open	—	01-28 14:44
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$217	463	463	+0	open	—	01-28 14:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$209	118	118	+0	open	—	02-10 11:00
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$208	256	256	+0	No	+$8	01-27 16:04
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	2	$206	128	128	+0	open	—	01-27 11:57
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$206	286	286	+0	open	—	02-26 17:50
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$204	122	122	+0	open	—	01-22 12:07
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	1	$200	506	0	+506	open	—	03-22 14:55
btc updown 15m 1770729300	3	$159	83	83	+0	open	—	02-10 13:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 03:38:27	Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x7acb97…
05-06 16:23:10	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x4dceb2…
05-06 16:22:51	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x4511af…
05-06 16:22:44	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xcf0d9c…
05-06 16:22:30	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xb233f0…
05-05 11:18:38	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xbe30ff…
05-04 16:05:46	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	60	49¢	$29	0xb6831e…
03-31 10:29:35	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	780	36¢	$281	0x70c5c2…
03-22 14:55:15	will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	506	40¢	$200	0xe71818…
03-22 14:54:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	529	81¢	$428	0x402981…
03-22 14:53:47	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	87	60¢	$52	0x41a9cb…
03-22 07:48:07	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	87	63¢	$55	0x4c57a8…
03-09 02:13:33	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	1,565	4¢	$55	0x0c2b04…
03-08 21:11:43	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0xed8e64…
03-08 21:10:07	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	646	86¢	$559	0x49e5de…
03-08 21:04:27	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xc5da5d…
03-08 21:00:53	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	36	75¢	$27	0x57ceb3…
03-08 21:00:03	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	864	75¢	$648	0xc68f96…
03-08 19:31:25	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	258	95¢	$244	0xe7fa5a…
03-06 07:51:33	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	215	41¢	$88	0x90cb22…
03-06 07:50:37	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	834	41¢	$343	0x27ad01…
03-05 16:40:59	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	37	20¢	$8	0xcc7223…
03-05 16:40:25	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x931a50…
03-05 09:35:33	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	172	21¢	$36	0xdb1b7c…
03-05 09:35:21	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x7a0eb0…
03-05 08:30:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x060c2e…
03-05 08:30:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	320	56¢	$179	0x3ccd1c…
03-05 08:30:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	130	57¢	$74	0xd591ab…
03-05 08:29:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0xbf65ee…
03-05 08:29:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	46	56¢	$26	0xdea1b6…
03-05 08:23:53	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe862b9…
03-05 08:19:43	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$104	0x70a7db…
03-05 08:18:49	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$3	0x50d4c3…
03-05 08:18:33	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$3	0xa4ca20…
03-05 08:18:09	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$104	0xd3db2c…
03-05 08:17:55	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x44b3a4…
03-05 08:17:25	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xe2a3cb…
03-05 08:14:09	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	183	79¢	$145	0x48823e…
03-04 18:18:31	bun hsv b04 2026 01 13 hsv	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xa15749…
03-04 18:16:21	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	74	73¢	$54	0xa08162…
03-04 18:13:11	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	No	SELL	405	61¢	$247	0xbf580c…
03-04 18:12:17	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	182	72¢	$130	0xd8a5dc…
03-04 18:11:41	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	19	72¢	$14	0x2e2f5e…
03-04 18:11:31	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	38	72¢	$27	0x9f8ea4…
03-04 18:11:15	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	29	72¢	$21	0x8054cb…
03-04 18:11:13	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	71	72¢	$51	0xf35405…
03-04 18:10:37	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	12	72¢	$8	0xb9c260…
03-04 18:10:23	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0x98402c…
03-04 18:10:03	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0x87eb2f…
03-04 18:09:55	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xe43510…
03-04 15:21:37	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	SELL	30	75¢	$23	0x35afe0…
03-04 15:20:29	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	267	75¢	$200	0x446cd6…
03-04 12:28:15	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	87	73¢	$63	0xf6a0db…
03-04 09:21:21	bun hsv b04 2026 01 13 hsv	Yes	BUY	372	27¢	$100	0x720a58…
03-04 08:57:47	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	No	BUY	195	56¢	$109	0x86cd18…
03-04 08:57:29	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x43aaae…
03-04 08:57:11	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x972528…
03-04 08:53:45	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x80bfb7…
03-04 08:52:23	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x39eec5…
03-04 08:52:09	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	90	71¢	$64	0x49a1a4…
03-04 08:51:45	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	59	71¢	$42	0x52dd43…
03-04 08:50:15	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x377f18…
03-03 14:52:27	will trump say tariff 6 times during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xf73abe…
03-03 14:51:15	will trump say nuclear during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x07d08e…
03-03 14:50:35	will trump say friend of mine during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	17	74¢	$13	0x4fe433…
03-03 14:50:33	will trump say friend of mine during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	83	73¢	$60	0x5ac62d…
03-03 14:50:01	will trump say percent 7 times during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0x8b2b90…
03-03 10:10:31	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0x1b19d0…
03-03 10:08:55	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	SELL	502	90¢	$452	0x406e82…
03-03 10:08:21	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x02915c…
03-03 08:28:35	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x4cfd64…
03-03 08:28:25	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x38f32d…
03-03 08:28:21	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7b3682…
03-03 08:28:09	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x2415e4…
03-03 08:27:59	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xdf77ee…
03-02 19:40:01	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6b53ea…
03-02 19:38:07	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0xe4ffd7…
03-02 19:28:37	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x62aeb2…
03-02 18:05:21	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	61	84¢	$51	0xe9d10c…
03-02 14:28:55	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	29	84¢	$24	0xd04fe9…
03-02 12:34:03	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7faca9…
03-02 12:21:49	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	56	86¢	$48	0xc66e3d…
03-02 11:31:11	will trump say iran during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	54	85¢	$46	0xc9f71c…
03-02 10:49:05	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	390	65¢	$253	0xfa7a9b…
02-27 17:34:49	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	2,665	26¢	$706	0xf7bb12…
02-27 17:09:35	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	31	24¢	$8	0xc5c448…
02-27 17:09:13	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0xf78d74…
02-27 17:08:33	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x7881e0…
02-27 12:29:23	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0x8e8535…
02-27 12:29:05	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x37af25…
02-27 12:28:33	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	180	72¢	$129	0x802238…
02-27 12:28:17	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x1fbd75…
02-27 10:26:05	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0xcc4d7c…
02-27 10:26:03	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x36243a…
02-27 10:14:33	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x194d22…
02-27 10:13:15	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	73	25¢	$18	0x5b4355…
02-27 10:12:37	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x0e3221…
02-27 10:12:25	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x191cc6…
02-27 10:12:17	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xdca657…
02-27 10:11:15	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	54	23¢	$13	0x9489f5…