Fine-Mantua — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

112

lifetime

Volume

$3.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-03-05

last 07-07 16:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

85% — —

Politics

13% 100% +$3

Crypto

2% 100% +$3

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		-48	$-11	32¢	$-15	$-4	06-03 04:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	2	$138	233	233	+0	open	—	06-16 05:33
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	1	$100	189	0	+189	open	—	06-30 09:56
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 spread home 2pt5	1	$100	185	0	+185	open	—	06-21 07:35
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 5pt5	1	$100	147	0	+147	open	—	06-14 18:12
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$100	132	0	+132	open	—	03-13 05:34
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	2	$100	331	0	+331	open	—	06-14 19:01
fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	1	$80	131	0	+131	open	—	06-23 07:02
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$75	57	57	+0	open	—	03-19 03:07
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 2pt5	1	$70	125	0	+125	open	—	06-17 08:30
fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	1	$70	121	0	+121	open	—	06-17 01:19
fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 1pt5	1	$60	97	0	+97	open	—	06-24 07:18
fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 spread away 1pt5	1	$60	146	0	+146	open	—	06-23 07:11
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	2	$60	115	0	+115	open	—	06-15 05:42
fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 2pt5	1	$55	106	0	+106	open	—	06-19 08:56
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	1	$50	78	0	+78	open	—	06-30 09:52
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	1	$50	100	0	+100	open	—	07-01 10:45
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	1	$50	94	0	+94	open	—	06-18 05:25
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 first half total 1pt5	1	$50	104	0	+104	open	—	07-07 16:25
fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	1	$50	128	0	+128	open	—	06-25 08:37
fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 spread away 1pt5	1	$50	102	0	+102	open	—	06-24 07:25
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	1	$50	116	0	+116	open	—	06-23 07:01
fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	1	$50	143	0	+143	open	—	06-23 07:12
fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	1	$50	116	0	+116	open	—	06-25 08:41
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	1	$50	93	0	+93	open	—	07-07 15:58
fifwc tun nld 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	1	$50	93	0	+93	open	—	06-25 08:27
fifwc sen irq 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	1	$50	77	0	+77	open	—	06-26 19:03
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	1	$50	76	0	+76	open	—	06-23 06:59
fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	2	$50	89	89	+0	open	—	06-17 05:30
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$48	28	28	+0	open	—	04-13 02:08
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	1	$40	82	0	+82	open	—	06-29 05:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 16:25:11	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x1884f7…
07-07 15:58:55	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x73fb13…
07-06 10:27:40	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals lamine yamal gte1	Yes	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x7b11f9…
07-06 10:27:31	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	Yes	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0x2c5df7…
07-03 02:53:23	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	67	44¢	$30	0x814d2c…
07-01 10:46:29	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 2pt5	England	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0xdf1a10…
07-01 10:45:43	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	England	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x0d4566…
07-01 03:53:05	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	65	1¢	$1	0x47e7f3…
07-01 02:47:43	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x93d114…
07-01 02:18:59	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x99b0b9…
06-30 09:56:43	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x6170f8…
06-30 09:52:26	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xabcfe0…
06-29 05:49:10	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xec1fc7…
06-29 05:48:16	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0x743444…
06-29 05:47:26	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x006edd…
06-29 05:46:37	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Germany	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0xbfbfe3…
06-29 05:45:47	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x3b31a9…
06-29 05:45:35	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xc9c909…
06-29 05:45:16	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x2fb3d6…
06-26 19:03:46	fifwc sen irq 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x6465ce…
06-25 08:41:59	fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x4abc74…
06-25 08:39:52	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	Japan	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x089bba…
06-25 08:37:41	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	Germany	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x97177a…
06-25 08:27:14	fifwc tun nld 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	Netherlands	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x0c0328…
06-24 07:28:53	fifwc che can 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0xa8dc32…
06-24 07:27:26	fifwc cze mex 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xb0c44f…
06-24 07:25:22	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 spread away 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x5fefdc…
06-24 07:18:49	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 1pt5	Morocco	BUY	97	62¢	$60	0xdca5bf…
06-23 07:12:02	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	Colombia	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x9ad346…
06-23 07:11:25	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 spread away 1pt5	Croatia	BUY	146	41¢	$60	0x878431…
06-23 07:02:32	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	England	BUY	131	61¢	$80	0xe78fda…
06-23 07:01:55	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0xd10e45…
06-23 07:01:08	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	Portugal	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x840534…
06-23 06:59:58	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	Portugal	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x135afc…
06-21 17:00:25	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xa1803c…
06-21 07:35:35	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x52b977…
06-20 10:33:43	fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x7e492d…
06-20 10:27:26	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	Ecuador	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x7c9b76…
06-20 10:18:28	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0x28a557…
06-20 10:15:10	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x122210…
06-19 08:56:56	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 2pt5	Brazil	BUY	106	52¢	$55	0x073c84…
06-18 05:25:31	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	Canada	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x7cb44c…
06-18 05:18:31	fifwc cze rsa 2026 06 18 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x298e4f…
06-17 08:30:02	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	125	56¢	$70	0xaf9be8…
06-17 08:21:10	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 spread away 1pt5	Colombia	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x453e00…
06-17 05:30:38	fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Austria	SELL	89	11¢	$10	0xbf74f0…
06-17 04:01:43	fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Austria	BUY	89	45¢	$40	0x19b115…
06-17 01:19:08	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	121	58¢	$70	0x71a190…
06-16 05:33:00	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	233	29¢	$68	0x8e4ae1…
06-16 05:23:03	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x4e42cf…
06-16 05:16:10	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	233	30¢	$70	0x11bc05…
06-15 05:42:13	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x8c3c07…
06-15 05:40:37	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0xc03ffb…
06-14 19:01:54	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Netherlands	BUY	292	24¢	$70	0xe7793e…
06-14 19:01:43	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Japan	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x4df638…
06-14 18:12:15	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 5pt5	Curaçao	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x05c53c…
06-14 17:22:09	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	Curaçao	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x754c66…
06-14 01:45:34	fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Scotland	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0x175bf1…
06-12 04:06:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	62	47¢	$29	0x28efce…
06-03 04:27:46	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	48	24¢	$11	0x6b61ab…
06-01 17:16:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x6e6444…
05-27 17:11:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xa8a9e4…
05-08 07:58:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x355084…
05-08 07:58:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xaaef7d…
05-06 03:10:08	Will Solana reach $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x63f2a3…
05-05 08:53:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xf0afd5…
04-24 06:08:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	106	5¢	$5	0x7ace24…
04-23 08:14:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc47fa4…
04-23 08:13:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x929a4e…
04-23 08:06:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0xc84fb9…
04-23 08:03:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xab18ee…
04-17 07:41:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x99f98d…
04-17 06:26:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x22b53d…
04-16 06:45:06	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x22c06c…
04-16 04:04:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x1ae887…
04-15 03:04:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	24	46¢	$11	0x28e279…
04-13 03:15:21	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xb21ac2…
04-13 02:13:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x0e9d23…
04-13 02:12:49	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x3ab389…
04-13 02:08:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xcdd817…
04-10 08:11:59	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x1b3618…
04-10 07:38:51	ethereum above 2200 on april 10	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x8dbe78…
04-08 03:12:53	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	Yes	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x7cb2a2…
04-01 02:55:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	346	3¢	$10	0x5b8356…
03-24 07:24:27	ethereum above 2200 on march 24	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x0c2a30…
03-24 05:45:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xa15480…
03-24 05:20:59	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	No	SELL	56	16¢	$9	0x25bfdd…
03-23 08:21:37	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xf43982…
03-23 08:17:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x8e4cea…
03-23 03:09:39	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x2d912d…
03-20 09:40:17	Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	4¢	$5	0x5736cc…
03-20 09:36:27	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	167	3¢	$5	0xdfdcb6…
03-20 06:50:23	will khamenei tweet again on march 20 2026 825 171	No	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x539c95…
03-20 06:46:25	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x719a35…
03-19 08:17:49	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x5ece49…
03-19 06:35:53	will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0ac5da…
03-19 03:42:29	will usdai launch a token by march 31	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xa1f998…
03-19 03:22:25	googl above 300 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xe6c59b…
03-19 03:11:07	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x8bec34…
03-19 03:07:07	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0x71c02a…