Fine-Mantua — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$14

1 position

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-16 05:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% — —

Politics

36% 100% +$3

Crypto

5% 100% +$3

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		-48	$-11	29¢	$-14	$-2	06-03 04:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	2	$138	233	233	+0	open	—	06-16 05:33
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 5pt5	1	$100	147	0	+147	open	—	06-14 18:12
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$100	132	0	+132	open	—	03-13 05:34
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	2	$100	331	0	+331	open	—	06-14 19:01
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$75	57	57	+0	open	—	03-19 03:07
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	2	$60	115	0	+115	open	—	06-15 05:42
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$48	28	28	+0	open	—	04-13 02:08
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	1	$30	75	0	+75	open	—	06-16 05:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$29	0	62	-62	open	—	06-12 04:06
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	03-23 03:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-27 17:11
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$21	40	24	+16	open	—	04-15 03:04
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$20	62	0	+62	open	—	03-17 07:03
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	1	$20	44	0	+44	open	—	06-14 17:22
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	1	$20	39	0	+39	open	—	03-14 09:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	05-08 07:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$15	136	21	+115	open	—	04-23 08:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	03-23 08:17
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	2	$14	56	56	+0	open	—	03-24 05:20
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$11	0	48	-48	open	—	06-03 04:27
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	04-08 03:12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	06-01 17:16
fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	1	$11	26	0	+26	open	—	06-14 01:45
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	2	$10	167	167	+0	open	—	03-20 09:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$10	106	106	+0	open	—	04-24 06:08
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	04-16 06:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	04-23 08:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	03-24 05:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	1	$10	346	0	+346	open	—	04-01 02:55
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	03-12 07:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 05:33:00	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	233	29¢	$68	0x8e4ae1…
06-16 05:23:03	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x4e42cf…
06-16 05:16:10	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	233	30¢	$70	0x11bc05…
06-15 05:42:13	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x8c3c07…
06-15 05:40:37	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0xc03ffb…
06-14 19:01:54	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Netherlands	BUY	292	24¢	$70	0xe7793e…
06-14 19:01:43	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Japan	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x4df638…
06-14 18:12:15	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 5pt5	Curaçao	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x05c53c…
06-14 17:22:09	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	Curaçao	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x754c66…
06-14 01:45:34	fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Scotland	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0x175bf1…
06-12 04:06:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	62	47¢	$29	0x28efce…
06-03 04:27:46	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	48	24¢	$11	0x6b61ab…
06-01 17:16:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x6e6444…
05-27 17:11:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xa8a9e4…
05-08 07:58:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x355084…
05-08 07:58:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xaaef7d…
05-06 03:10:08	Will Solana reach $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x63f2a3…
05-05 08:53:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xf0afd5…
04-24 06:08:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	106	5¢	$5	0x7ace24…
04-23 08:14:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc47fa4…
04-23 08:13:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x929a4e…
04-23 08:06:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0xc84fb9…
04-23 08:03:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xab18ee…
04-17 07:41:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x99f98d…
04-17 06:26:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x22b53d…
04-16 06:45:06	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x22c06c…
04-16 04:04:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x1ae887…
04-15 03:04:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	24	46¢	$11	0x28e279…
04-13 03:15:21	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xb21ac2…
04-13 02:13:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x0e9d23…
04-13 02:12:49	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x3ab389…
04-13 02:08:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xcdd817…
04-10 08:11:59	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x1b3618…
04-10 07:38:51	ethereum above 2200 on april 10	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x8dbe78…
04-08 03:12:53	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	Yes	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x7cb2a2…
04-01 02:55:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	346	3¢	$10	0x5b8356…
03-24 07:24:27	ethereum above 2200 on march 24	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x0c2a30…
03-24 05:45:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xa15480…
03-24 05:20:59	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	No	SELL	56	16¢	$9	0x25bfdd…
03-23 08:21:37	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xf43982…
03-23 08:17:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x8e4cea…
03-23 03:09:39	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x2d912d…
03-20 09:40:17	Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	4¢	$5	0x5736cc…
03-20 09:36:27	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	167	3¢	$5	0xdfdcb6…
03-20 06:50:23	will khamenei tweet again on march 20 2026 825 171	No	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x539c95…
03-20 06:46:25	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x719a35…
03-19 08:17:49	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x5ece49…
03-19 06:35:53	will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0ac5da…
03-19 03:42:29	will usdai launch a token by march 31	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xa1f998…
03-19 03:22:25	googl above 300 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xe6c59b…
03-19 03:11:07	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x8bec34…
03-19 03:07:07	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0x71c02a…
03-17 07:20:53	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xcaa9b5…
03-17 07:04:11	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	28	95¢	$27	0x85b45c…
03-17 07:03:21	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xed97da…
03-14 09:26:51	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x286e9f…
03-13 05:34:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xcc98c8…
03-12 07:38:21	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x75adeb…
03-12 07:36:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x302679…
03-11 08:23:03	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xac1e02…
03-11 08:22:01	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x8574c8…
03-11 07:36:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xfa265e…
03-11 07:24:39	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	2¢	$5	0x6228a0…
03-05 09:01:09	bitcoin above 74k on march 5	Yes	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x51e1d5…