Murky-Eraser — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.75K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

$101

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-12 22:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

50% 100% +$14

Other

38% 100% +$9

Tech

8% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes		+112	$100	90¢	$101	+$1	06-02 16:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$414	443	443	+0	open	—	05-23 21:29
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$391	232	232	+0	open	—	06-12 22:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$244	317	0	+317	open	—	05-19 07:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$217	244	0	+244	open	—	05-09 11:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	2	$206	119	119	+1	open	—	04-08 04:21
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$206	115	115	+0	open	—	06-11 18:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$200	282	0	+282	open	—	03-16 12:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$184	146	146	+0	open	—	04-17 12:49
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)	1	$170	179	0	+179	Arsenal FC	+$9	05-05 13:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$128	174	0	+174	open	—	05-23 21:29
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	1	$114	124	0	+124	open	—	03-16 12:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	06-02 16:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	04-02 20:33
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	1	$100	119	0	+119	open	—	04-05 10:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	1	$100	123	0	+123	open	—	04-02 20:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	1	$100	135	0	+135	open	—	06-02 16:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	1	$100	107	0	+107	No	+$7	05-01 12:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	1	$100	108	0	+108	No	+$8	05-01 12:34
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$100	122	0	+122	open	—	04-06 16:16
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	1	$100	130	0	+130	open	—	03-16 12:33
iran leadership change by march 31	1	$100	120	0	+120	open	—	03-16 12:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	1	$100	117	0	+117	open	—	05-01 12:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	1	$100	113	0	+113	open	—	06-02 16:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$100	127	0	+127	open	—	04-02 20:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	06-02 16:15
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	1	$100	120	0	+120	open	—	03-16 12:32
Iran leadership change by May 31?	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	05-01 12:35
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	06-02 16:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	05-01 12:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$99	128	0	+128	open	—	04-08 04:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 22:09:06	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	232	100¢	$232	0xa974a9…
06-12 13:07:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	232	69¢	$159	0x91e587…
06-11 18:40:57	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	115	92¢	$106	0xfa9aaa…
06-07 21:03:58	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	260	2¢	$6	0x93df7c…
06-02 16:19:30	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x777a13…
06-02 16:15:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x03aad3…
06-02 16:15:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x340e9d…
06-02 16:15:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x9b93be…
06-02 16:13:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x68bf83…
06-02 16:12:16	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x54cff0…
05-23 21:29:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	37	77¢	$28	0xe838ef…
05-23 21:29:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	106	25¢	$27	0x81ad35…
05-21 15:19:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	80¢	$85	0x639d7c…
05-21 10:31:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	26¢	$87	0x64a714…
05-19 07:03:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	317	77¢	$244	0x820680…
05-09 11:22:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	118	91¢	$107	0xa20d9f…
05-08 17:57:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	90	92¢	$82	0x0344ea…
05-08 17:57:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x71a4a4…
05-08 17:56:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	126	87¢	$110	0xc73da2…
05-05 13:53:20	Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	179	95¢	$170	0xf25b35…
05-01 12:37:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0x48dbaa…
05-01 12:35:20	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x809c29…
05-01 12:34:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xd796b0…
05-01 12:34:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x9c29a9…
05-01 12:34:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x49eb74…
04-25 12:18:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	336	64¢	$215	0x904087…
04-21 16:17:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	96	76¢	$73	0xd8f7e6…
04-17 12:49:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	146	50¢	$73	0xad2e04…
04-16 17:32:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	146	76¢	$111	0x530ff3…
04-08 04:22:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	128	77¢	$99	0x315296…
04-08 04:21:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	119	84¢	$100	0x558e18…
04-06 16:17:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	119	89¢	$106	0x86fa29…
04-06 16:16:19	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x206e59…
04-05 10:12:39	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xa3852a…
04-04 14:16:31	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	143	17¢	$24	0x87738d…
04-02 20:34:41	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	103	91¢	$94	0x9b2355…
04-02 20:33:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x9b4920…
04-02 20:33:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x714f93…
04-02 20:31:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x3e8b09…
04-02 20:31:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x9728b1…
04-02 20:31:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x149e0c…
03-16 12:37:45	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	124	92¢	$114	0xa4cf72…
03-16 12:33:55	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xd2b8f9…
03-16 12:32:17	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xe09d4f…
03-16 12:31:19	iran leadership change by march 31	No	BUY	120	84¢	$100	0x7434b5…
03-16 12:28:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0x777466…