Bruised-Espadrille — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$588

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 05-21 23:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

61% 100% +$1

Other

36% 100% +$0

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	3	$60	36	36	+0	open	—	04-07 23:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$51	34	34	+0	open	—	04-05 01:56
will artemis ii launch by february 28	1	$47	47	0	+47	open	—	02-22 01:34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$43	24	24	+0	open	—	02-28 19:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	2	$41	33	33	+0	open	—	03-02 21:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	05-18 23:11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$30	16	16	+0	open	—	05-21 19:37
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	05-11 02:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-11 02:35
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$20	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	05-11 02:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-06 17:35
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-28 16:12
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-06 09:48
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-11 02:34
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$20	48	0	+48	open	—	01-18 18:01
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	01-03 09:03
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-06 22:17
Kash Patel out by April 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 17:48
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-21 23:29
Will the Patek Index hit $108,000 (HIGH) by April 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 17:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	No	+$1	05-06 22:15
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-22 15:32
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 17:59
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	04-22 15:25
Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 21:44
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-10 15:12
will artemis ii launch by march 31	2	$3	29	29	+0	open	—	03-02 21:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 23:29:05	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x801f6c…
05-21 19:37:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0x93ced8…
05-18 23:11:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x9bf4ed…
05-16 21:44:32	Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf64024…
05-16 01:11:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xc76176…
05-16 01:10:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xc1d694…
05-11 02:35:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe5417b…
05-11 02:34:58	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0xa50d2c…
05-11 02:34:33	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0b851c…
05-11 02:34:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xc39bd0…
05-10 15:12:07	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5717e9…
05-10 15:05:33	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x46776a…
05-10 14:59:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8efb74…
05-06 22:17:53	Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x925743…
05-06 22:15:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x00b450…
05-06 17:35:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xeb4d87…
05-06 09:48:22	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x2480b1…
05-05 22:26:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x96234e…
05-01 16:18:30	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xa44e5c…
04-28 18:02:50	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8be13f…
04-28 17:59:24	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3734a1…
04-28 17:56:14	Will the Patek Index hit $108,000 (HIGH) by April 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe02247…
04-28 17:48:04	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd592db…
04-28 16:12:20	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x29d5d6…
04-22 15:34:52	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe14403…
04-22 15:34:30	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x655a8d…
04-22 15:32:52	Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xeadfb3…
04-22 15:25:50	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x5d7586…
04-07 23:04:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0x03d912…
04-07 22:56:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xfcc78d…
04-05 01:56:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	34	92¢	$31	0x1ebdfa…
03-25 20:32:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x9c9f3c…
03-02 21:36:51	will artemis ii launch by march 31	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xb8a528…
03-02 21:35:23	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	63¢	$21	0xe02c5a…
03-02 10:58:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xb54ed7…
02-28 20:55:55	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x0d940e…
02-28 19:48:05	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0xe27b8b…
02-28 14:03:57	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x233d24…
02-22 01:35:32	will artemis ii launch by march 31	Yes	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0x825968…
02-22 01:34:44	will artemis ii launch by february 28	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xcb87e6…
01-18 18:01:50	israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xa89393…
01-03 09:03:57	us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	Yes	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xaaa409…