Specific-Fallacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.0%

Resolved

Trades

200

lifetime

Volume

$529

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 08-15 13:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

48% 50% $-8

Crypto

45% 100% +$0

Sports

7% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	4	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	07-03 00:27
nhl ott car 2026 04 18	8	$25	30	29	+1	open	—	04-18 19:54
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 1pt5	4	$24	25	25	+0	open	—	06-28 20:55
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	07-03 23:20
btc updown 5m 1776289800	4	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	04-15 21:54
btc updown 5m 1776345300	2	$19	13	13	+0	open	—	04-16 13:18
btc updown 5m 1782682200	3	$18	16	9	+7	open	—	06-28 21:35
wnba por wsh 2026 06 28	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	06-28 22:31
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	2	$13	12	12	+0	Over	$-7	05-13 20:51
fifwc kr cze 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	06-12 03:25
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	1	$12	17	0	+17	open	—	07-03 23:22
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	4	$12	12	12	+0	open	—	06-23 13:25
btc updown 5m 1786799700	2	$12	15	15	+0	open	—	08-15 13:17
btc updown 5m 1776290700	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-15 22:06
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	06-30 22:13
btc updown 5m 1782214500	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	06-23 11:38
btc updown 5m 1776287700	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-15 21:19
btc updown 5m 1776288600	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-15 21:34
btc updown 5m 1776290400	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-15 22:03
btc updown 5m 1781901300	8	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	06-19 20:38
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	2	$9	12	12	+1	open	—	06-30 22:45
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 total 1pt5	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	07-01 17:38
btc updown 5m 1786799100	5	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	08-15 13:09
btc updown 5m 1782214200	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	06-23 11:31
btc updown 5m 1786800300	4	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	08-15 13:28
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	2	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	06-13 22:42
btc updown 5m 1776543300	4	$7	11	2	+9	open	—	04-18 20:18
btc updown 5m 1776345900	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-16 13:30
btc updown 5m 1776346200	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-16 13:33
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	07-03 00:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 13:45:58	btc updown 5m 1786801500	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x26f244…
08-15 13:37:16	btc updown 5m 1786800900	Down	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x54bce7…
08-15 13:36:52	btc updown 5m 1786800900	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xc58e75…
08-15 13:28:33	btc updown 5m 1786800300	Down	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x3798a9…
08-15 13:28:07	btc updown 5m 1786800300	Up	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x445241…
08-15 13:26:51	btc updown 5m 1786800300	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xa38d34…
08-15 13:26:42	btc updown 5m 1786800300	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x1e3862…
08-15 13:22:36	btc updown 5m 1786800000	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x5dd6c0…
08-15 13:17:22	btc updown 5m 1786799700	Down	SELL	15	59¢	$9	0xff2e1e…
08-15 13:16:48	btc updown 5m 1786799700	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x6a4aa8…
08-15 13:12:07	btc updown 5m 1786799400	Up	SELL	4	65¢	$2	0x4ac000…
08-15 13:11:40	btc updown 5m 1786799400	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xa29f44…
08-15 13:09:42	btc updown 5m 1786799100	Down	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x28528b…
08-15 13:08:30	btc updown 5m 1786799100	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb1f16e…
08-15 13:07:37	btc updown 5m 1786799100	Up	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xca5b9a…
08-15 13:07:09	btc updown 5m 1786799100	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x585e9b…
08-15 13:07:00	btc updown 5m 1786799100	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x58611f…
07-03 23:22:23	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0x4d3d43…
07-03 23:20:26	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xce9d33…
07-03 22:11:29	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x26ffe1…
07-03 00:53:32	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x2d0a1d…
07-03 00:35:58	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x6e953a…
07-03 00:27:44	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x69f872…
07-03 00:26:58	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x8e7212…
07-03 00:25:29	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0x3e2a3f…
07-03 00:15:46	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xc9940f…
07-02 20:48:07	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xe9571e…
07-02 20:47:43	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x458d0a…
07-02 20:45:32	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe412dd…
07-02 20:43:49	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb0e8b7…
07-01 17:38:46	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x61481e…
07-01 10:57:25	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x5fd1e6…
06-30 22:45:23	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	12	38¢	$4	0xd5b92f…
06-30 22:45:01	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x2eeb74…
06-30 22:13:08	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xe6d0f4…
06-30 21:56:44	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x948bdd…
06-28 22:31:25	wnba por wsh 2026 06 28	Washington Mystics	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0xd7b17f…
06-28 22:17:04	wnba por wsh 2026 06 28	Washington Mystics	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x32ed1e…
06-28 21:35:10	btc updown 5m 1782682200	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4d3e34…
06-28 21:32:47	btc updown 5m 1782682200	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x39f6ac…
06-28 21:32:28	btc updown 5m 1782682200	Up	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x5e3ddb…
06-28 21:27:43	btc updown 5m 1782681900	Down	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xc57c64…
06-28 21:27:22	btc updown 5m 1782681900	Up	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xb2ad10…
06-28 21:26:35	btc updown 5m 1782681900	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2d335c…
06-28 21:26:01	btc updown 5m 1782681900	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x48896f…
06-28 20:55:29	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0xd0b40a…
06-28 20:50:02	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb7d0f0…
06-28 16:41:13	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x3f3742…
06-28 16:40:34	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x0bf061…
06-23 13:25:16	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xbfe2dd…
06-23 13:25:16	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x2be724…
06-23 13:08:44	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x9cd9ce…
06-23 13:08:38	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xdecfc3…
06-23 11:38:11	btc updown 5m 1782214500	Up	SELL	6	85¢	$6	0xcbe277…
06-23 11:37:07	btc updown 5m 1782214500	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd9a0c2…
06-23 11:31:47	btc updown 5m 1782214200	Up	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x90f5d8…
06-23 11:30:50	btc updown 5m 1782214200	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x97716d…
06-21 00:04:01	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 goals enner valencia gte1	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xef9b49…
06-20 18:20:32	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd4b393…
06-20 17:20:14	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1f9697…
06-20 17:20:04	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9b5104…
06-20 02:05:43	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2a2216…
06-20 00:36:07	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x061897…
06-20 00:14:58	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7a5315…
06-20 00:14:49	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc3f3f4…
06-19 22:05:59	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x594c4a…
06-19 21:28:08	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8882f2…
06-19 20:58:38	btc updown 5m 1781902500	Down	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xe5cd7e…
06-19 20:57:29	btc updown 5m 1781902500	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0xcbdb91…
06-19 20:55:49	btc updown 5m 1781902500	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x02ee84…
06-19 20:55:29	btc updown 5m 1781902500	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x865f4c…
06-19 20:52:49	btc updown 5m 1781902200	Down	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xa7884a…
06-19 20:52:46	btc updown 5m 1781902200	Up	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x6773b5…
06-19 20:50:29	btc updown 5m 1781902200	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x26d99d…
06-19 20:50:19	btc updown 5m 1781902200	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xbd3396…
06-19 20:46:17	btc updown 5m 1781901900	Down	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0xff1aeb…
06-19 20:46:07	btc updown 5m 1781901900	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x17c127…
06-19 20:45:28	btc updown 5m 1781901900	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8f1fa1…
06-19 20:45:16	btc updown 5m 1781901900	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7c91b8…
06-19 20:41:13	btc updown 5m 1781901600	Down	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xac2a77…
06-19 20:41:10	btc updown 5m 1781901600	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$2	0x14903b…
06-19 20:40:25	btc updown 5m 1781901600	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xbc02d3…
06-19 20:40:19	btc updown 5m 1781901600	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8a2228…
06-19 20:38:41	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Down	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x7151ec…
06-19 20:38:32	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Up	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x6e70dc…
06-19 20:38:10	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0b26ca…
06-19 20:38:05	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x936f8a…
06-19 20:36:10	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Down	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x58589f…
06-19 20:36:05	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x1506ec…
06-19 20:35:26	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb83813…
06-19 20:35:17	btc updown 5m 1781901300	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x930f0e…
06-19 20:30:50	btc updown 5m 1781901000	Down	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x872d63…
06-19 20:30:40	btc updown 5m 1781901000	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0x223132…
06-19 20:30:28	btc updown 5m 1781901000	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb948d0…
06-19 20:30:19	btc updown 5m 1781901000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x55c842…
06-19 20:26:13	btc updown 5m 1781900700	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x19e419…
06-19 20:25:40	btc updown 5m 1781900700	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x9bb182…
06-19 18:18:44	btc updown 5m 1781892900	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa9f52f…
06-13 23:48:25	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xa92f6a…
06-13 22:42:39	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x5b4bd7…