Sweltering-Desk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

28.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$228

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$41

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-11 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% — —

Other

36% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

3% 50% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+41	$30	74¢	$31	+$1	06-02 04:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No		+18	$15	56¢	$10	$-5	06-09 05:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$30	41	0	+41	open	—	06-02 04:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	05-27 16:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$27	32	0	+32	open	—	05-22 20:21
S&P 500 all time high by May 31, 2026?	1	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	04-15 04:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	06-09 05:43
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	4	$15	17	17	+0	open	—	05-19 04:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-26 04:31
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	05-16 23:29
starmer out by july 31 2026	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	06-11 18:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-28 04:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	05-01 22:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	04-28 04:39
NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Flyers Total Games O/U 5.5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Under 5.5	$-5	05-01 18:31
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-19 18:40
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-12 21:51
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-12 19:22
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	05-09 22:14
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	04-19 04:58
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	05-30 19:30
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	04-13 03:45
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	05-01 18:45
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	1	$2	14	0	+14	open	—	05-01 18:29
Knicks vs. 76ers	1	$2	2	0	+2	Knicks	+$0	05-10 20:02
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-19 18:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 18:00:13	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x7d2fba…
06-09 05:43:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xbdefa1…
06-02 04:53:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x98d21b…
05-30 19:30:47	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x9ac7a9…
05-27 16:06:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xb7c46a…
05-22 20:21:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x75cdbb…
05-19 04:59:37	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	No	SELL	9	16¢	$1	0x01bfbf…
05-18 17:56:41	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	No	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x714f87…
05-18 17:55:24	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x24a492…
05-16 23:29:44	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xc32287…
05-16 23:18:02	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xda150d…
05-10 20:02:58	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x5ca33e…
05-09 22:14:24	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xb5163c…
05-01 22:15:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x757915…
05-01 18:45:50	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x26293d…
05-01 18:31:10	NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Flyers Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0fdbd6…
05-01 18:29:38	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xb6534c…
04-28 04:39:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0xed0e9c…
04-28 04:33:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x3fec11…
04-26 04:31:52	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb34cfa…
04-19 18:49:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x0b611c…
04-19 18:40:08	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x44d7c8…
04-19 04:58:02	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xd45e73…
04-19 04:41:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x6deb05…
04-18 15:59:26	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x474629…
04-15 04:21:24	S&P 500 all time high by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x6f8875…
04-13 03:45:49	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0xeceabb…
04-12 21:51:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x081360…
04-12 21:21:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdb7a75…
04-12 19:22:41	will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9a4619…