Gleaming-Volcano — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

45.8%

Resolved

Trades

516

lifetime

Volume

$1.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$40

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 06-15 19:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 32% $-39

Other

9% — —

Sports

5% — —

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes		+227	$50	18¢	$40	$-10	06-12 22:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	1	$100	370	0	+370	open	—	06-12 21:57
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	1	$100	278	0	+278	open	—	06-11 23:47
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	1	$50	227	0	+227	open	—	06-12 22:01
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$50	357	0	+357	open	—	06-15 19:01
btc updown 5m 1774587000	4	$23	30	20	+10	open	—	03-27 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	4	$21	19	19	+0	Up	+$5	05-13 03:34
btc updown 5m 1774329000	3	$19	30	0	+30	open	—	03-24 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	3	$18	19	14	+6	Up	+$4	05-12 19:08
btc updown 5m 1774638600	5	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	03-27 19:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$18	18	12	+6	Up	$-2	05-12 20:02
btc updown 5m 1774631400	4	$17	20	20	+0	open	—	03-27 17:13
btc updown 5m 1774637700	5	$16	20	20	+0	open	—	03-27 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	3	$16	16	11	+5	Up	+$5	05-13 03:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	04-07 20:25
btc updown 5m 1774587600	4	$15	20	10	+10	open	—	03-27 05:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$14	11	11	+0	Down	+$6	05-13 03:20
btc updown 5m 1774642500	2	$14	20	20	+0	open	—	03-27 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$14	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-12 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$14	24	24	+0	Up	$-6	05-12 18:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	3	$13	14	6	+8	Down	$-5	05-13 03:13
btc updown 5m 1774390200	2	$13	20	0	+20	open	—	03-24 22:14
btc updown 5m 1774634700	5	$13	30	20	+10	open	—	03-27 18:08
btc updown 5m 1774589400	3	$13	20	10	+10	open	—	03-27 05:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	2	$13	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	05-12 18:36
btc updown 5m 1774636500	3	$13	20	10	+10	open	—	03-27 18:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$13	32	26	+6	Down	$-1	05-12 20:13
btc updown 5m 1774331700	2	$13	20	0	+20	open	—	03-24 05:59
btc updown 5m 1774643700	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	03-27 20:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$12	14	14	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 19:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	3	$11	20	15	+5	Up	+$0	05-13 03:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 19:01:51	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	357	14¢	$50	0x735d34…
06-14 04:07:55	btc updown 5m 1781409900	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xa5c7e9…
06-14 04:05:43	btc updown 5m 1781409900	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xa20837…
06-12 22:01:00	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x1b26a4…
06-12 21:57:34	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	No	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0x6f3240…
06-11 23:47:54	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0xd4a625…
05-15 18:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xacdb16…
05-13 16:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x341aea…
05-13 04:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xd56ef5…
05-13 03:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd47a71…
05-13 03:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x841e4a…
05-13 03:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xf7ddac…
05-13 03:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xa1926e…
05-13 03:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x96e70b…
05-13 03:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xb7f69d…
05-13 03:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0xc5e37a…
05-13 03:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xb23ec9…
05-13 03:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xdee0f5…
05-13 03:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xcb5eb2…
05-13 03:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	11	70¢	$8	0x86e4a3…
05-13 03:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x13d4db…
05-13 03:34:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0x029c1d…
05-13 03:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x297a49…
05-13 03:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x96fa28…
05-13 03:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xba1580…
05-13 03:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0xabbe7f…
05-13 03:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x7829eb…
05-13 03:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x2a32fb…
05-13 03:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x47a4fd…
05-13 03:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0xef4a08…
05-13 03:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x5992f5…
05-13 03:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x285d92…
05-13 03:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0xad31fd…
05-13 03:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa5517e…
05-12 20:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x8e5133…
05-12 20:12:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	26	11¢	$3	0x91f08f…
05-12 20:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xcc7bc6…
05-12 20:06:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	17	14¢	$2	0xf39f1d…
05-12 20:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe64f49…
05-12 20:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb41350…
05-12 20:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0xe3137c…
05-12 20:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x897272…
05-12 19:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x76c63f…
05-12 19:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x215c5e…
05-12 19:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0x173a0c…
05-12 19:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xd2aa68…
05-12 19:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	14	51¢	$7	0xb8c812…
05-12 19:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xde25ef…
05-12 19:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0xe2fbf3…
05-12 19:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x0d039e…
05-12 19:37:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x6f9d74…
05-12 19:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x37c67e…
05-12 19:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x98bd64…
05-12 19:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x975fdc…
05-12 19:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	26	21¢	$6	0x11522d…
05-12 19:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xd0eacb…
05-12 19:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9cadab…
05-12 19:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	14	61¢	$8	0x9835e6…
05-12 19:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x577b26…
05-12 18:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	14	66¢	$9	0xcab31a…
05-12 18:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb4f0e1…
05-12 18:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	24	15¢	$4	0xf5ef5a…
05-12 18:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x493c19…
05-12 18:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xcab16c…
05-12 18:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	13	63¢	$8	0xa67129…
05-12 18:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x709dd8…
05-12 18:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x264157…
05-12 18:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x0aed4a…
05-12 18:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	14	21¢	$3	0x48eb6c…
05-12 18:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x1e61c4…
05-12 18:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x19b07d…
05-12 18:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x5d660f…
05-12 18:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xf60d2a…
05-12 18:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xc7c537…
05-12 00:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xa91f3f…
05-11 20:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xa861a9…
05-11 20:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x813ae8…
05-11 20:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x4a0f6c…
04-13 21:41:41	btc updown 5m 1776116400	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x9e9659…
04-13 21:41:41	btc updown 5m 1776116400	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x1f7d8e…
04-07 20:36:05	will trump praise allah again by april 15	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xb25bbb…
04-07 20:34:39	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xcda741…
04-07 20:25:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xbb6304…
04-06 17:11:15	btc updown 5m 1775495400	Up	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xd81efa…
04-06 17:08:15	btc updown 5m 1775495100	Up	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0xabea79…
04-06 17:08:15	btc updown 5m 1775495100	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x6c3539…
04-06 17:05:51	btc updown 5m 1775495100	Up	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x424f3a…
04-06 17:05:51	btc updown 5m 1775495100	Up	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x1772d4…
04-05 23:20:41	btc updown 5m 1775431200	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa38d67…
04-05 23:20:41	btc updown 5m 1775431200	Up	BUY	1	40¢	$1	0x5114ed…
04-05 23:20:41	btc updown 5m 1775431200	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0x4de930…
04-05 23:11:27	btc updown 5m 1775430600	Down	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xc60677…
04-05 22:42:57	btc updown 5m 1775428800	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x3fd1b6…
04-05 22:32:03	btc updown 5m 1775428200	Down	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x3fe49c…
04-05 22:28:57	btc updown 5m 1775427900	Up	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0x5b16b3…
04-05 22:25:49	btc updown 5m 1775427900	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xcd703c…
04-05 22:07:51	btc updown 5m 1775426700	Up	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x66a095…
04-05 22:05:55	btc updown 5m 1775426700	Up	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x834587…
04-05 22:05:55	btc updown 5m 1775426700	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4f14b6…
04-05 19:55:49	btc updown 5m 1775418900	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x893475…