Afraid-Foray — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$101

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

Trades

169

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 17:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$132

Other

31% — —

Crypto

13% 43% $-32

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No		-14	$-12	84¢	$-11	+$1	06-04 19:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$317	200	250	-50	Yes	+$132	05-09 05:06
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	5	$95	145	145	+0	open	—	05-22 02:00
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	05-13 02:55
starmer out by july 31 2026	3	$65	105	0	+105	open	—	06-08 17:33
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	1	$57	80	0	+80	open	—	05-18 02:20
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	3	$49	80	46	+34	open	—	05-16 14:00
will super bowl lx be the most viewed super bowl ever	2	$36	57	0	+57	open	—	02-01 21:31
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	5	$33	19	19	+0	open	—	05-13 04:55
will donald trump say cilia or flores during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday	5	$28	27	27	+0	open	—	01-03 16:40
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$26	25	25	+0	open	—	05-11 23:33
maduro out by march 31 2026 187 483	1	$26	45	0	+45	open	—	01-03 08:56
maduro mugshot released by monday	3	$25	40	20	+20	open	—	01-05 02:19
eth updown 15m 1780871400	2	$24	30	30	+0	open	—	06-07 22:39
iran strike on israel by january 31	4	$23	14	29	-15	open	—	01-15 00:40
will donald trump say cia or fbi during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday	2	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	01-03 15:44
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	1	$22	50	0	+50	open	—	01-03 08:31
russia strike on kyiv municipality by january 10 2026	4	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	01-03 19:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	8	$18	25	10	+15	Down	$-7	05-09 22:29
eth updown 15m 1780870500	3	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	06-07 22:18
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	2	$15	150	150	+0	open	—	01-16 14:37
will donald trump say fentanyl during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday	1	$14	20	0	+20	open	—	01-03 14:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	6	$13	20	10	+10	Down	$-3	05-09 23:07
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	2	$12	0	14	-14	open	—	06-04 19:19
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026?	5	$12	48	0	+48	open	—	04-02 19:15
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?	2	$11	17	17	+0	open	—	05-09 05:12
will powell say median during january press conference 776	2	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	01-28 18:44
will powell say inflation 40 times during january press conference	1	$8	0	42	-42	open	—	01-13 01:05
will tim walz say fraud during his press conference on january 5	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	01-05 16:18
will trump say nuclear 5 times during meetings with slovak prime minister	2	$7	12	12	+0	open	—	01-17 22:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	3	$7	27	12	+15	Down	$-3	05-09 22:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 17:33:39	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	70	60¢	$42	0xdaf7f8…
06-07 22:39:55	eth updown 15m 1780871400	Down	SELL	30	28¢	$9	0x19ec27…
06-07 22:29:51	eth updown 15m 1780871400	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xd3095e…
06-07 22:18:27	eth updown 15m 1780870500	Down	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x09d24b…
06-07 22:18:04	eth updown 15m 1780870500	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1f0823…
06-07 22:18:01	eth updown 15m 1780870500	Down	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0xc6a06a…
06-07 21:55:45	eth updown 15m 1780868700	Down	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x22fcba…
06-07 21:48:58	eth updown 15m 1780868700	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x032ae3…
06-07 21:47:12	eth updown 15m 1780868700	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x017bb9…
06-07 21:42:10	eth updown 15m 1780867800	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2edaf3…
06-07 21:42:09	eth updown 15m 1780867800	Up	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x7ee4e9…
06-07 21:40:30	eth updown 15m 1780867800	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xc7fdf9…
06-04 20:01:15	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xa3ac83…
06-04 19:31:58	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xd4e992…
06-04 19:19:27	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x1400c6…
05-31 08:59:22	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x5b61cc…
05-27 20:20:10	will taylor swift perform at the 2027 big game halftime show 939	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x148cd9…
05-22 02:00:02	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	Yes	SELL	80	37¢	$30	0xec8a6e…
05-22 01:57:15	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	Yes	SELL	38	38¢	$14	0xc51702…
05-22 01:54:50	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	Yes	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0x8eca90…
05-19 16:14:42	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	Yes	BUY	45	28¢	$13	0x5365bb…
05-19 12:15:24	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x30ef79…
05-18 13:13:01	Will Trump say "China" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xd3445f…
05-18 02:20:31	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	71¢	$57	0x5ab160…
05-17 17:47:34	Will Trump say "Boeing" this week?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xf4af44…
05-16 14:00:03	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	SELL	40	36¢	$14	0x58d7a7…
05-16 13:39:21	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	SELL	6	43¢	$2	0xcac942…
05-16 13:23:09	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	80	40¢	$32	0xa91732…
05-14 22:56:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x06e366…
05-14 22:55:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x42a2b9…
05-14 22:41:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x19b221…
05-14 22:37:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	15¢	$1	0xd7243e…
05-14 22:36:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x3d4b4b…
05-14 22:36:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x185e73…
05-14 22:32:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x41612a…
05-14 22:32:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x4d8317…
05-14 22:12:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xa457e6…
05-14 22:08:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xfbb3fb…
05-14 22:08:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x7a942c…
05-14 22:07:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xf41ee1…
05-14 22:06:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf201f8…
05-14 04:28:09	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xade77d…
05-14 04:08:54	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x0e949f…
05-14 04:05:47	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb6f760…
05-14 02:39:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x3abd97…
05-14 02:30:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa8050b…
05-13 21:55:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0xb8d7de…
05-13 21:55:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0xa7ee46…
05-13 21:50:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xa3794e…
05-13 21:50:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	33¢	$0	0x80392d…
05-13 04:55:42	Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x59d41e…
05-13 04:55:19	Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf9c056…
05-13 02:55:02	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x1b66d4…
05-12 23:18:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x03cdc9…
05-12 23:17:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x437d43…
05-12 23:05:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x2e0c1c…
05-12 23:01:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xf1c136…
05-12 23:01:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x67b377…
05-12 22:49:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xf72d14…
05-12 22:48:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x3e5bf3…
05-12 22:21:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x54f6ad…
05-12 22:18:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xd2e0ca…
05-11 23:33:44	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0xd5c17f…
05-11 22:52:19	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$35	0x56cb00…
05-09 23:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x7efa1b…
05-09 23:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xf51d3b…
05-09 23:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x007c5c…
05-09 23:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x2b08e8…
05-09 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xc8d78b…
05-09 23:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x4f0c95…
05-09 23:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	Down	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x1332ee…
05-09 23:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x697c91…
05-09 23:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x0fc356…
05-09 23:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x136d8b…
05-09 22:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xb98d6c…
05-09 22:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0x93821c…
05-09 22:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x371c74…
05-09 22:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xa7b309…
05-09 22:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb69b7b…
05-09 22:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xcc5f9a…
05-09 22:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x86fc69…
05-09 22:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x39bbbc…
05-09 22:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x5d853b…
05-09 22:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa97a2e…
05-09 22:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0xadc945…
05-09 22:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbf2aed…
05-09 22:28:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5a48c3…
05-09 22:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x47e5a5…
05-09 22:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc84d6c…
05-09 22:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xa42e83…
05-09 22:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x797af5…
05-09 22:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0xa729e0…
05-09 22:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xf1bca8…
05-09 22:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xf7db23…
05-09 22:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x368b3d…
05-09 22:13:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x988bec…
05-09 22:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x106e96…
05-09 22:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x075699…
05-09 22:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x95b4b2…
05-09 22:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd65351…