Costly-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,227

lifetime

Volume

$7.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 03:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$1

Politics

31% 100% +$0

Sports

13% — —

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump attend ufc 327	3	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	04-12 01:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	4	$32	17	17	+0	open	—	07-30 22:12
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	3	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	05-01 06:12
cbb will tmrt 2026 01 01	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	01-02 00:12
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 28	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	03-01 22:42
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-28 14:12
cwbb vand ark 2026 01 01	2	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	01-01 22:02
will there be at least 1150 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 917	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-27 15:02
will violet bridgerton get engaged in bridgerton season 4	3	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	02-26 22:22
will hillary say trump 5 times during her epstein testimony	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-02 23:32
will hillarys remarks not air	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-03 08:22
will keir starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-21 23:22
ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21 totals 0pt5	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-22 04:32
will keir starmer say venezuela during the next prime ministers questions 848	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-11 13:12
mwoh lat usa 2026 02 12	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-12 22:12
mwoh swe lat 2026 02 17	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-17 21:22
will bernie sanders say paycheck to paycheck during the fighting oligarchy rally	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-13 20:32
cbb gnzg sea 2026 01 17	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-18 05:12
trump announces new drug boat strike by january 17 2026 855	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-18 09:22
will starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-25 15:22
will keir starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions 471	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-11 12:42
cbb nmx airf 2026 01 10	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-10 21:52
acn egy nga 2026 01 17 total 4pt5	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-17 18:32
will the announcers say takedown or take down 3 times during strickland vs hernandez	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-22 06:22
will antnio jos seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	01-18 20:32
zuffa dzamb elbia 2026 02 15	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-16 04:02
will cold storage score at least 75 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-16 15:12
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 21	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-22 14:42
will trump say goy or goyim during meeting with netanyahu	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-11 08:02
acn cmr mar 2026 01 09 total 4pt5	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	01-09 21:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 22:02:30	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 12	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xefca06…
08-12 03:32:57	will iran target a arab country on august 12 2026 20260801004719129	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x6cc081…
08-12 00:32:51	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 12	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x7c2636…
08-08 01:03:27	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xece03f…
08-08 00:34:06	will paulo dybala attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630266	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x1328af…
08-07 22:32:31	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x179c4f…
08-07 01:32:30	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 3 2026 20260722225036927	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa123eb…
08-07 00:33:50	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x5b1940…
08-03 00:33:36	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 3 2026 20260722225036927	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x1e43e1…
08-01 20:52:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xdd234d…
08-01 01:33:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0x8fae79…
07-30 22:12:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xde6657…
07-30 01:05:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x164e68…
07-30 01:01:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x1c6aac…
07-30 00:56:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xa3a292…
07-23 07:32:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x8f922e…
07-22 01:15:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xfd5cf6…
07-21 10:32:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb46428…
07-20 03:53:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xd015f5…
07-19 19:12:31	2026 the open championship top10 max homa	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9dd6f9…
07-19 17:52:31	2026 the open championship top10 alexander noren	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa7e1cc…
07-18 23:32:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x354e2a…
07-18 09:32:54	2026 the open championship top10 max homa	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x0a8e48…
07-18 01:13:57	2026 the open championship top10 alexander noren	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x699956…
07-18 00:33:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf22b31…
07-17 04:02:31	will trump accuse germany of election interference by july 16 20260714013930799	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc40493…
07-16 03:42:32	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xda0344…
07-16 02:43:08	will trump accuse germany of election interference by july 16 20260714013930799	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x14a0ed…
07-16 01:12:31	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf270a5…
07-14 00:37:55	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xaaa30b…
07-14 00:37:55	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x2e0b17…
07-12 13:02:31	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x26592a…
07-10 14:12:29	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc5efe0…
07-10 09:22:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x75d048…
07-10 07:02:53	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x33978f…
07-09 07:13:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc0eb4d…
07-09 02:13:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xde1c6a…
07-08 04:22:31	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xae4ac2…
07-06 09:13:37	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7e8608…
07-03 16:32:29	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x56e762…
07-02 08:22:31	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x496898…
07-02 02:42:31	iran successfully targets shipping on july 1 20260625225210242	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x4fe144…
07-01 14:22:31	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1aacfd…
07-01 01:03:02	iran successfully targets shipping on july 1 20260625225210242	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x819889…
06-30 01:53:19	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x66a6c2…
06-29 23:22:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6f4200…
06-29 22:22:31	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe1b20a…
06-29 17:48:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x16ada5…
06-29 05:49:37	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfd202a…
06-28 17:34:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8ffa47…
06-28 09:23:10	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1cb529…
06-27 00:33:25	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x41444f…
06-20 02:22:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfba45d…
06-18 23:52:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbbc967…
06-18 22:13:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x70bfa6…
06-18 16:32:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026 585	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x5ea031…
06-18 04:42:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd73a44…
06-18 02:32:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x14856b…
06-17 23:33:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4df131…
06-17 20:43:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026 585	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x132b14…
06-17 07:04:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x629218…
06-17 02:43:37	will the announcers say trump during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513556	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x25f550…
06-17 02:42:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x75de97…
06-16 17:43:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xcd1871…
06-16 08:33:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xafb542…
06-16 07:52:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xe6c9a2…
06-16 05:03:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xf766ae…
06-16 04:33:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x34ba37…
06-15 13:12:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x7b3050…
06-15 02:02:31	ufc kyl3 bon 2026 06 14 daukaus win by ko tko	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xa7f718…
06-15 00:53:39	ufc kyl3 bon 2026 06 14 daukaus win by ko tko	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x6b018b…
06-14 14:27:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x2cff24…
06-14 13:25:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd768b0…
06-14 11:27:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xcada9f…
06-14 03:32:31	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 22pt5	Knicks	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5f8889…
06-14 03:32:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread away 14pt5	Spurs	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x1deda2…
06-14 03:12:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 25pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x529dd0…
06-14 03:02:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread away 16pt5	Spurs	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x48f092…
06-13 23:03:09	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 22pt5	Knicks	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x96c75f…
06-13 22:33:10	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread away 14pt5	Spurs	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xef4212…
06-13 18:23:40	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xfe4874…
06-13 09:13:15	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 25pt5	Knicks	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xedf2cb…
06-13 07:22:30	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 12 2026 20260611220617200	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xdaaea8…
06-13 04:42:30	Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xcdbaaa…
06-13 03:33:25	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread away 16pt5	Spurs	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x7d0213…
06-13 03:22:30	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa69725…
06-12 22:33:09	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 12 2026 20260611220617200	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x80467b…
06-12 14:14:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x16a2d5…
06-11 23:22:31	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9d3f0d…
06-11 06:26:03	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x730144…
06-11 03:42:33	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 20pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x89e0bd…
06-11 02:22:31	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2e8d80…
06-10 23:43:31	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 20pt5	Knicks	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe0ec08…
06-10 02:24:15	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0xef5e02…
06-09 17:44:33	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd0e1c3…
06-09 17:32:33	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x0e34e1…
06-09 17:12:31	will a claude mythos model be released by june 22 2026 656	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa047bc…
06-09 15:58:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xfc3a9a…
06-09 15:32:31	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x74be93…
06-09 14:33:58	will a claude mythos model be released by june 22 2026 656	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0747cb…