Costly-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,139

lifetime

Volume

$6.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-11 06:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$1

Politics

29% 100% +$0

Sports

14% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump attend ufc 327	3	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	04-12 01:12
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	3	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	05-01 06:12
cbb will tmrt 2026 01 01	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	01-02 00:12
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 28	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	03-01 22:42
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-28 14:12
cwbb vand ark 2026 01 01	2	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	01-01 22:02
will there be at least 1150 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 917	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-27 15:02
will violet bridgerton get engaged in bridgerton season 4	3	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	02-26 22:22
will hillary say trump 5 times during her epstein testimony	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-02 23:32
will hillarys remarks not air	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-03 08:22
will keir starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-21 23:22
will keir starmer say venezuela during the next prime ministers questions 848	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-11 13:12
ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21 totals 0pt5	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-22 04:32
mwoh lat usa 2026 02 12	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-12 22:12
mwoh swe lat 2026 02 17	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-17 21:22
will bernie sanders say paycheck to paycheck during the fighting oligarchy rally	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-13 20:32
cbb gnzg sea 2026 01 17	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-18 05:12
trump announces new drug boat strike by january 17 2026 855	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-18 09:22
will starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-25 15:22
will keir starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions 471	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-11 12:42
cbb nmx airf 2026 01 10	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-10 21:52
acn egy nga 2026 01 17 total 4pt5	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-17 18:32
will the announcers say takedown or take down 3 times during strickland vs hernandez	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-22 06:22
will antnio jos seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	01-18 20:32
zuffa dzamb elbia 2026 02 15	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-16 04:02
will cold storage score at least 75 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-16 15:12
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 21	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-22 14:42
will trump say goy or goyim during meeting with netanyahu	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-11 08:02
acn cmr mar 2026 01 09 total 4pt5	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	01-09 21:12
will good luck have fun dont die score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	02-16 15:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 23:22:31	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9d3f0d…
06-11 06:26:03	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x730144…
06-11 03:42:33	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 20pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x89e0bd…
06-11 02:22:31	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2e8d80…
06-10 23:43:31	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 20pt5	Knicks	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe0ec08…
06-10 02:24:15	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0xef5e02…
06-09 17:44:33	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd0e1c3…
06-09 17:32:33	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x0e34e1…
06-09 17:12:31	will a claude mythos model be released by june 22 2026 656	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa047bc…
06-09 15:58:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xfc3a9a…
06-09 15:32:31	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x74be93…
06-09 14:33:58	will a claude mythos model be released by june 22 2026 656	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0747cb…
06-09 03:42:33	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 18pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x211f48…
06-09 03:42:31	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 19pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1a24c2…
06-09 02:52:31	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 22pt5	Spurs	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0815a2…
06-08 21:22:31	will apple announce a foldable iphone during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x475bd9…
06-08 20:44:03	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 22pt5	Spurs	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5ed1d3…
06-08 20:35:37	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x70c37d…
06-08 20:33:27	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x90de3c…
06-08 17:33:21	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 19pt5	Knicks	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x0c429f…
06-08 16:13:09	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 19pt5	Knicks	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x67a5a7…
06-08 15:23:04	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 18pt5	Knicks	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x732958…
06-08 04:22:30	will trump say kuwait this week	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x250df8…
06-07 23:22:31	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x795bbf…
06-07 22:12:55	will apple announce a foldable iphone during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xde237a…
06-07 22:07:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa418e0…
06-07 21:33:13	will apple announce a foldable iphone during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	4	95¢	$3	0x74be77…
06-07 14:44:28	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc8a6a7…
06-07 09:33:04	will trump say kuwait this week	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x27d2c8…
06-06 03:12:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 194pt5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9d5a34…
06-06 03:12:31	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 196pt5	Over	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x32e6b5…
06-06 03:12:31	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 23pt5	Knicks	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x21646d…
06-06 02:42:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 24pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaf015a…
06-06 02:32:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 25pt5	Knicks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf77901…
06-05 22:23:27	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 194pt5	Over	BUY	3	95¢	$2	0x727c3d…
06-05 22:02:31	will trump say death tax during wisconsin events 20260602174202011	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5b7fda…
06-05 18:53:16	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 23pt5	Knicks	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xca6b1e…
06-05 18:23:13	will trump say death tax during wisconsin events 20260602174202011	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x713be9…
06-05 17:43:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 24pt5	Knicks	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x070425…
06-05 17:43:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 25pt5	Knicks	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x00038b…
06-05 05:13:22	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 196pt5	Over	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xf21ce6…
06-04 08:12:31	Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2ac8d5…
06-04 03:02:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 17pt5	Knicks	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9e5acf…
06-04 03:02:31	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 18pt5	Knicks	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc4e785…
06-03 23:53:21	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 17pt5	Knicks	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x87e414…
06-03 23:13:27	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 200pt5	Over	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x455eaa…
06-03 22:53:03	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 198pt5	Over	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x740657…
06-03 20:42:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 3 569 213	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfbf5da…
06-03 20:13:40	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 199pt5	Over	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x5f7814…
06-03 17:53:18	Spread: Spurs (-18.5)	Knicks	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x5f55e1…
06-03 14:12:30	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf7337c…
06-03 04:33:46	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbe326e…
06-03 00:02:35	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x235744…
06-02 09:23:07	Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x3b3e51…
06-02 01:52:31	Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings	Dallas Wings	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa15460…
06-02 00:37:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9497ac…
06-01 23:02:31	Will Trump say "No No No" this week?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9e5ee1…
06-01 22:32:32	Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4f63ce…
06-01 22:02:31	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0xd0af8e…
06-01 20:22:30	Will Trump say "Uber" this week?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x01fd5c…
06-01 06:22:32	Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0bd31b…
06-01 05:52:31	Will "United Nations" be in the headlines this week?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2eb8fc…
06-01 02:22:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x227b6e…
06-01 00:42:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x554ce9…
06-01 00:35:04	Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings	Dallas Wings	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x973b69…
06-01 00:12:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xfab16c…
05-31 05:02:31	Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)	Philadelphia Phillies	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xbf9a74…
05-31 00:43:13	Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x229722…
05-30 17:29:41	Will Trump say "No No No" this week?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb1aa63…
05-30 16:03:46	Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x445951…
05-30 15:53:51	Will Trump say "Uber" this week?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xfa46a0…
05-30 15:34:04	Will "United Nations" be in the headlines this week?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0xa7890e…
05-30 14:52:32	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway	Switzerland	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x3a9ad8…
05-30 10:54:30	Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x320de8…
05-30 10:24:38	Will Trump say "Traitor" this week?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0x0afb8e…
05-30 10:07:28	Will Trump say "Traitor" this week?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0xbb9b64…
05-30 08:33:50	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd920c6…
05-30 06:05:40	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xbfee9b…
05-30 05:34:57	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x2c5472…
05-30 04:09:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3360b5…
05-30 04:05:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0e6548…
05-30 03:27:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x56995e…
05-30 03:24:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4dd9cd…
05-30 03:20:35	Will Trump say "CIA" this week?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb7138d…
05-30 03:20:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xab7f5f…
05-30 03:07:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x462574…
05-30 03:07:01	Will Trump say "CIA" this week?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x429645…
05-30 01:28:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa6a742…
05-29 14:33:34	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway	Switzerland	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xef54a8…
05-29 14:25:18	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xec8e30…
05-29 09:53:18	Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0476a5…
05-29 03:02:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9e047e…
05-29 01:32:30	Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)	Toronto Blue Jays	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7a1dad…
05-29 01:02:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xeae518…
05-28 18:12:30	Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb941f5…
05-28 14:14:14	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0x19c969…
05-28 07:02:55	Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3a5780…
05-28 06:53:02	Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	4	89¢	$3	0x203cb8…
05-28 02:33:04	Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)	Atlanta Braves	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x89b458…
05-28 02:12:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x08cf35…