Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
open
Total volume
$1,622
Trades
33
Unique wallets
19
Liquidity
$745
Latest YES mid
100¢
Latest NO mid
0¢
End date
2026-02-28
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-13 04:42
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-7.8¢
(top1%: 77% YES on $552
vs crowd: 85% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $426 | $131 | +$295 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $410 | — | +$410 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | $30 | $5 | +$24 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $105 | $35 | +$70 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $426 | $126 | +$300 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $374 | $6 | +$368 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $48 | — | +$48 |
| Median | 3 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $5 | $5 |
| unranked | 6 | $117 | $35 | +$82 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimal-Miss 0x4a2b…af20 | No | +600 | $126 | $126 | 3 | 06-12 17:47 |
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | +448 | $426 | $426 | 1 | 06-13 03:11 |
| Musty-Hutch 0x04b1…1354 | Yes | +127 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-11 18:18 |
| Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | Yes | +80 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 06-07 01:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +26 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-07 01:57 |
| Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | +21 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-12 20:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x6a48…7d3b | Yes | +17 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 06-13 04:42 |
| Impolite-Mode 0x09e2…29de | Yes | +15 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-12 20:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | No | +9 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 06-13 03:11 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-13 03:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xa738…a520 | Yes | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-12 20:12 |
| Trusty-Close 0x04db…f0fd | No | +2 | $-0 | $1 | 2 | 06-12 20:12 |
| Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-28 16:39 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 04:42:31 | Generous-Makeup 0x65d7…c2b9 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0xbdcd28… |
| 06-13 04:42:31 | (anonymous) 0x6a48…7d3b | Yes | BUY | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0xbdcd28… |
| 06-13 04:42:30 | Costly-Birch 0x8366…24fe | Yes | SELL | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0xcdbaaa… |
| 06-13 04:42:30 | (anonymous) 0x6a48…7d3b | Yes | BUY | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0xcdbaaa… |
| 06-13 03:11:30 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 448 | 95¢ | $426 | 0xf11bcb… |
| 06-13 03:11:30 | Villainous-Volatility 0xc91b…93bd | Yes | SELL | 448 | 95¢ | $426 | 0xf11bcb… |
| 06-13 03:11:06 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | No | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x50ed02… |
| 06-13 03:11:06 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x50ed02… |
| 06-13 03:11:06 | Villainous-Volatility 0xc91b…93bd | Yes | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x50ed02… |
| 06-12 20:12:24 | Trusty-Close 0x04db…f0fd | No | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x209bcf… |
| 06-12 20:12:24 | Villainous-Volatility 0xc91b…93bd | Yes | SELL | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0x209bcf… |
| 06-12 20:12:24 | (anonymous) 0xa738…a520 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x209bcf… |
| 06-12 20:12:22 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 15 | 25¢ | $4 | 0xa679f9… |
| 06-12 20:12:22 | Impolite-Mode 0x09e2…29de | Yes | BUY | 15 | 75¢ | $12 | 0xa679f9… |
| 06-12 17:47:54 | Villainous-Volatility 0xc91b…93bd | Yes | BUY | 458 | 79¢ | $362 | 0x3b72b2… |
| 06-12 17:47:54 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x3b72b2… |
| 06-12 17:47:54 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x3b72b2… |
| 06-12 17:47:54 | Optimal-Miss 0x4a2b…af20 | No | BUY | 443 | 21¢ | $93 | 0x3b72b2… |
| 06-11 18:18:22 | Musty-Hutch 0x04b1…1354 | Yes | BUY | 127 | 79¢ | $100 | 0x00b989… |
| 06-11 18:18:22 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 75¢ | $7 | 0x00b989… |
| 06-11 18:18:22 | Optimal-Miss 0x4a2b…af20 | No | BUY | 117 | 21¢ | $25 | 0x00b989… |
| 06-07 01:57:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 21¢ | $5 | 0x22b2ab… |
| 06-07 01:57:54 | Optimal-Miss 0x4a2b…af20 | No | BUY | 40 | 21¢ | $8 | 0x22b2ab… |
| 06-07 01:57:54 | Moral-Marksman-Pacemaker 0x5901…b1c3 | No | SELL | 75 | 21¢ | $16 | 0x22b2ab… |
| 06-07 01:57:54 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | No | BUY | 10 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x22b2ab… |
| 06-07 01:37:45 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | Yes | BUY | 75 | 60¢ | $45 | 0x3bbb58… |
| 06-07 01:37:45 | Moral-Marksman-Pacemaker 0x5901…b1c3 | No | BUY | 75 | 40¢ | $30 | 0x3bbb58… |
| 06-05 20:17:18 | Trusty-Close 0x04db…f0fd | No | SELL | 3 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x4c3eac… |
| 06-05 20:17:18 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | No | BUY | 3 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x4c3eac… |
| 06-03 22:50:15 | Murky-Margarine 0xe807…4d35 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 60¢ | $3 | 0x41e5cd… |
| 06-03 22:50:15 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 60¢ | $3 | 0x41e5cd… |
| 05-28 16:39:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9a3317… |
| 05-28 16:39:34 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9a3317… |