Murky-Margarine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.98K

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

75.6%

Resolved

2,358

Trades

16,748

lifetime

Volume

$1.69M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

$101

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-26 19:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 188 days

Categories

Politics

41% 77% +$1,824

Crypto

25% 57% -$8,785

Other

23% 74% +$478

Sports

9% 84% -$1,503

Tech

2% 82% +$1,013

Pop-Culture

0% 70% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	+100	$73	71¢	$71	-$2	10-26 19:16
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	+30	$21	85¢	$25	+$4	07-18 08:58
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	+30	$34	15¢	$5	-$29	09-04 20:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	35	$57.9K	29,704	29,704	+0	No	+$885	06-17 02:56
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	70	$51.1K	37,983	18,458	+19,524	No	+$1,013	06-03 23:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	67	$36.8K	20,347	20,347	+0	Yes	+$399	06-17 01:29
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	22	$29.9K	17,297	14,297	+3,000	No	+$145	06-13 15:09
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	113	$27.6K	26,098	7,758	+18,340	No	+$568	07-05 23:25
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	11	$27.2K	13,653	13,653	+0	Yes	+$64	05-29 16:26
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	18	$24.1K	15,119	15,119	+0	No	+$165	03-31 15:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	29	$23.5K	14,051	13,851	+200	Yes	-$393	07-29 07:51
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	33	$22.7K	11,492	11,492	+0	Yes	+$260	06-30 04:50
will turkey strike iran by march 31	101	$21.1K	16,372	5,429	+10,943	No	+$316	03-31 19:26
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	96	$16.0K	16,660	555	+16,105	Yes	+$1,137	06-27 17:24
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	8	$16.0K	8,026	8,026	+0	No	+$1	06-27 15:11
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	27	$14.7K	11,412	3,573	+7,839	No	+$173	05-22 13:39
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	66	$14.0K	20,544	11,127	+9,417	Yes	-$1,802	07-07 23:26
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	16	$13.9K	7,939	7,939	+0	Yes	+$645	06-14 23:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 01:10 UTC	157	$13.6K	8,154	8,154	+0	Down	+$2,018	07-09 01:13
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	11	$13.5K	7,698	7,698	+0	Yes	+$959	06-14 23:22
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	91	$13.4K	7,821	8,176	-355	Yes	+$148	05-14 03:57
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	29	$13.2K	13,313	0	+13,313	Yes	+$103	06-23 14:38
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	11	$13.0K	8,138	6,078	+2,060	No	-$34	06-11 14:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	14	$12.4K	12,582	35	+12,547	No	+$153	05-26 23:12
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	16	$12.4K	6,807	6,778	+29	No	+$85	06-17 18:38
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	35	$11.9K	9,729	9,719	+10	No	-$3	04-17 17:03
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	31	$10.8K	7,427	3,742	+3,685	No	+$373	04-30 20:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	13	$10.7K	5,383	5,383	+0	No	-$10	06-29 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 04:55 UTC	160	$10.6K	10,972	7,511	+3,461	Up	-$899	07-09 04:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 01:30 UTC	59	$10.5K	10,020	7,924	+2,096	Down	+$219	07-09 01:33
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	7	$10.3K	10,547	0	+10,547	No	+$226	06-17 09:05
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	6	$9.7K	9,731	0	+9,731	No	+$46	05-18 09:35
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	15	$9.4K	4,738	4,738	+0	No	+$20	04-03 00:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:16:50	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x723d76…
10-25 21:48:29	Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x660bcc…
10-25 21:33:32	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x5d498f…
10-25 21:33:00	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x321223…
10-25 21:30:51	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xc0fe4e…
10-25 21:30:05	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xe7ba36…
10-25 21:28:03	Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xccecd6…
10-25 21:27:14	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x6fb893…
10-25 21:26:24	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x007fd3…
10-25 21:23:17	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xa1165b…
10-25 21:21:11	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xf92c18…
10-25 21:21:03	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x4437ce…
10-25 21:20:59	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x04a290…
10-25 21:20:57	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0xd32f2c…
10-25 21:18:32	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xcd9bab…
10-25 20:54:20	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	49	81¢	$40	0xcdcb01…
10-25 20:54:17	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xcd492c…
10-24 18:18:11	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	490	93¢	$456	0xb880fe…
10-23 17:39:30	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	490	82¢	$402	0x0a6e5e…
10-23 17:33:20	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	132	82¢	$109	0x3f0968…
10-23 17:29:18	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	169	83¢	$140	0x7e36ba…
10-23 17:26:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	156	98¢	$153	0x22c510…
10-22 21:49:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	156	98¢	$154	0x115215…
10-22 19:35:08	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	217	71¢	$154	0xbd6c5f…
10-21 20:47:47	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0xc216a3…
10-21 20:10:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	35	75¢	$26	0x88eb37…
10-21 19:58:38	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x083999…
10-21 19:58:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x20551d…
10-21 19:58:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	25	82¢	$21	0x0f21ef…
10-21 19:58:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xef7a34…
10-21 19:58:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x34465c…
10-21 19:55:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xd952ac…
10-21 19:55:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0xb195cf…
10-21 19:55:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	13	68¢	$9	0x7ed558…
10-21 19:10:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0x7628c7…
10-19 18:24:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x52dc5a…
10-19 16:00:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	19	50¢	$10	0xefd9e7…
10-19 15:55:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	27	68¢	$19	0xaf501c…
10-19 15:55:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	23	68¢	$16	0x7451a9…
10-18 09:08:59	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xf06bf6…
10-17 20:02:26	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	118	91¢	$107	0xc6d99a…
10-17 19:45:06	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	123	87¢	$107	0x62cfde…
10-17 08:51:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	19	82¢	$16	0x72f9a8…
10-17 08:42:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x108e59…
10-17 00:25:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	44	82¢	$36	0x5e5c6d…
10-16 18:25:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xa95c93…
10-16 15:49:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x00eb1a…
10-16 15:45:07	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xd801a8…
10-16 15:40:07	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xf214b5…
10-16 08:33:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0xd5b000…
10-15 20:00:04	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xa49aad…
10-15 19:22:07	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x0d63c2…
10-15 18:07:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe9ae67…
10-15 18:06:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x60e8f8…
10-15 18:05:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xe9eab7…
10-15 18:05:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0a4c77…
10-15 18:04:56	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	50¢	$5	0xbbef6d…
10-15 14:05:07	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	66¢	$11	0xd5a2f1…
10-14 17:22:13	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x7b102d…
10-14 17:17:31	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2591bc…
10-14 17:17:25	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x00129c…
10-14 17:15:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0xa93d04…
10-14 17:15:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x41d1b4…
10-14 08:34:23	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xa6ee33…
10-14 08:32:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb335b2…
10-14 08:29:41	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x48bc13…
10-14 00:40:52	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x2b88f5…
10-14 00:25:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	32	71¢	$23	0x17df99…
10-13 19:51:25	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x4a416f…
10-13 12:46:16	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0xe53370…
10-10 21:51:10	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	89¢	$20	0xd760b2…
10-10 21:43:22	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x506e5c…
10-10 21:42:22	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x790527…
10-10 21:42:19	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xffd14f…
10-09 20:39:08	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xc67c45…
10-09 18:09:25	KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers	Kia Tigers	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x149e7c…
10-09 13:27:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	12	71¢	$9	0xb7b2fa…
10-09 07:39:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xc4c32f…
10-09 07:00:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	34	67¢	$23	0x5f6193…
10-08 19:31:15	Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios	Tomas Barrios	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x851d67…
10-08 19:25:08	Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios	Tomas Barrios	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xdfffe5…
10-08 19:22:00	Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios	Tomas Barrios	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x317158…
10-08 19:09:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	24	73¢	$18	0xdcdd94…
10-08 19:09:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x5169cf…
10-08 19:06:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xa4a4c3…
10-08 18:35:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	12	63¢	$8	0x3ee738…
10-08 18:35:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	132	81¢	$107	0xa4ac90…
10-06 17:56:11	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0x8da714…
10-06 11:15:07	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x947b8e…
10-02 10:10:39	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	47	93¢	$44	0x807060…
10-01 18:40:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0xf69f97…
10-01 16:50:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	74¢	$17	0x0b3ed7…
10-01 14:53:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x05f4f8…
10-01 14:53:02	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	190	92¢	$175	0x596571…
10-01 14:52:41	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x33bddc…
10-01 14:51:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x192422…
10-01 14:51:11	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6c07a5…
10-01 14:46:14	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xfab913…
10-01 14:37:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xf7fa4e…
10-01 14:24:03	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x7c7aa2…