Villainous-Volatility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$745

Unrealized P&L

+$835

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,714

lifetime

Volume

$244.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

$4.64K

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 07-22 17:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

72% 100% +$745

Other

24% — —

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 319 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-1,446	$-2,063	100¢	$-1445	+$618	06-20 22:59
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+2,064	$1,356	68¢	$1.4K	+$58	07-22 17:46
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+1,044	$467	64¢	$673	+$207	07-13 20:43
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	+1,849	$466	32¢	$582	+$117	07-22 17:46
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	+1,107	$550	36¢	$404	$-146	07-13 20:43
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+72	$27	81¢	$58	+$31	06-10 16:05
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+56	$45	86¢	$48	+$4	06-10 16:11
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+72	$67	19¢	$14	$-54	06-26 04:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	372	$29.8K	23,494	17,527	+5,967	open	—	05-30 13:10
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	99	$17.3K	9,636	9,636	+0	open	—	06-22 09:28
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	185	$13.4K	10,958	10,958	+0	open	—	06-21 17:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	108	$11.9K	9,109	9,109	+0	open	—	07-03 23:35
Nothing Ever Happens: May	398	$11.2K	23,007	21,415	+1,593	open	—	06-02 16:47
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	177	$9.8K	10,980	11,080	-100	open	—	06-21 17:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	111	$6.6K	9,076	9,076	+0	open	—	07-08 08:51
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	199	$6.3K	5,654	5,123	+531	open	—	06-20 22:59
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	174	$6.2K	5,234	4,488	+746	open	—	06-14 21:23
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	209	$6.0K	5,503	6,949	-1,446	open	—	06-20 22:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	100	$5.9K	5,142	5,126	+16	open	—	04-30 03:59
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	63	$5.8K	3,966	3,966	+0	open	—	06-08 09:11
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	36	$4.6K	5,260	0	+5,260	open	—	07-21 02:00
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	49	$4.5K	4,758	1,326	+3,432	open	—	07-19 16:58
will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	16	$4.0K	2,303	2,303	+0	open	—	07-13 14:38
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	177	$4.0K	5,431	4,767	+664	open	—	06-14 21:23
Fed rate hike in 2026?	63	$3.4K	3,787	1,724	+2,064	open	—	07-22 17:46
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	23	$3.4K	3,777	1,043	+2,734	open	—	05-25 22:56
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	44	$2.9K	4,161	20	+4,141	open	—	06-15 02:40
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	50	$2.8K	1,832	1,742	+90	open	—	05-27 06:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	40	$2.7K	3,236	3,236	+0	No	+$634	04-30 03:59
starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	98	$2.4K	9,321	6,036	+3,286	open	—	06-22 06:01
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	37	$2.4K	2,543	957	+1,586	open	—	07-21 10:36
iran closes its airspace by june 22	69	$2.3K	4,692	825	+3,867	open	—	06-07 21:22
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	25	$2.2K	1,233	1,276	-43	open	—	06-15 15:39
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	67	$2.2K	3,570	1,721	+1,849	open	—	07-22 17:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	30	$2.2K	1,507	1,488	+19	open	—	05-06 13:15
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	52	$2.1K	6,006	2,268	+3,738	open	—	07-20 10:11
starmer out by october 31 2026 896 929 365 346 935	3	$2.0K	2,102	0	+2,102	open	—	06-21 13:27
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	55	$2.0K	1,818	1,817	+1	Yes	+$111	04-27 14:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 11:01:25	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x14e70a…
07-23 10:46:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	203	76¢	$154	0x18f01a…
07-23 10:29:16	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xfda7ad…
07-23 10:29:16	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x3d356b…
07-23 09:08:30	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	77	47¢	$36	0x00a64f…
07-23 09:01:42	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	SELL	201	57¢	$114	0x6d3ed9…
07-23 09:00:28	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	154	64¢	$99	0x7c7d3f…
07-23 08:55:42	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	133	65¢	$86	0xc779e1…
07-23 08:54:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	170	71¢	$121	0x5e8857…
07-23 08:24:19	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	93	70¢	$65	0x7e49b4…
07-23 08:14:39	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0xb5e42d…
07-23 08:09:39	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x674712…
07-23 07:57:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x591b56…
07-23 07:44:15	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x2f3b5d…
07-22 17:46:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	64¢	$95	0xa35b5f…
07-22 17:46:55	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	153	36¢	$55	0x1dbf57…
07-22 15:27:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd8b806…
07-22 14:21:15	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x5715ca…
07-22 14:21:13	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xcf75c2…
07-22 14:21:13	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xaf97ed…
07-22 14:21:13	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x489d76…
07-22 14:21:13	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x1b7886…
07-22 14:21:12	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0x8ad569…
07-22 14:21:10	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x7bbcdf…
07-22 14:08:34	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	15	16¢	$3	0x51958c…
07-22 14:08:33	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	16	16¢	$3	0x7fecaa…
07-22 14:08:33	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4d0644…
07-22 14:07:42	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xcd0049…
07-22 14:07:42	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x56c9dc…
07-22 14:07:40	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	173	16¢	$28	0x41ce0b…
07-22 14:07:39	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	220	16¢	$36	0x0018de…
07-21 15:30:57	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	94	47¢	$44	0x50b5ce…
07-21 15:30:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	63¢	$59	0x483818…
07-21 15:06:33	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	300	47¢	$141	0xe3cda1…
07-21 15:06:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	63¢	$189	0x70fbb5…
07-21 10:36:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	34	90¢	$31	0xea5503…
07-21 10:36:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	33	20¢	$7	0x8fe59f…
07-21 08:01:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	203	59¢	$120	0xe41a27…
07-21 08:01:46	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	203	51¢	$104	0x3ff4b2…
07-21 07:55:54	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xe21828…
07-21 05:16:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x0cd518…
07-21 05:16:48	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0x03e0b1…
07-21 05:09:22	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	292	51¢	$149	0xde2056…
07-21 05:09:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	292	59¢	$172	0xb86a0a…
07-21 04:08:16	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0x4f1e7e…
07-21 04:08:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x8d6f43…
07-21 03:50:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	300	51¢	$153	0xdbda43…
07-21 03:50:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	59¢	$177	0xc80862…
07-21 03:48:25	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x8a1616…
07-21 03:48:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x139544…
07-21 03:45:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xb5b306…
07-21 03:45:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x0c2f65…
07-21 03:44:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xade991…
07-21 03:44:33	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xacf20d…
07-21 03:41:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xec41db…
07-21 03:41:10	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xd78aa8…
07-21 03:23:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x68a5e2…
07-21 03:23:34	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x09e870…
07-21 03:18:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x1b0201…
07-21 03:18:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x17d0da…
07-21 02:46:45	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0x99d989…
07-21 02:27:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x16ce3f…
07-21 02:27:58	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x0c8966…
07-21 02:23:48	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xbd6ede…
07-21 02:23:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x28619c…
07-21 02:17:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x0f5906…
07-21 02:17:13	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x5de8a2…
07-21 02:03:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x968821…
07-21 02:03:01	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x6106a0…
07-21 02:00:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	176	7¢	$12	0xc48593…
07-21 02:00:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	153	94¢	$144	0x37f3ae…
07-21 01:57:09	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xd2c8dc…
07-21 01:57:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x9cef77…
07-21 00:07:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xcad6d1…
07-21 00:07:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x381131…
07-20 23:46:46	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x679c07…
07-20 23:45:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x137e9c…
07-20 23:45:27	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xec3a91…
07-20 23:45:27	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x60e543…
07-20 23:45:27	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	184	94¢	$173	0x2c7103…
07-20 23:45:27	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x2107b6…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	135	8¢	$11	0xfb1f6b…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0xc94d1d…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	135	94¢	$127	0x6d921a…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	343	7¢	$24	0x56ad66…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	181	7¢	$13	0x4f5480…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0x1eaf48…
07-20 23:45:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	303	94¢	$285	0x0d68dd…
07-20 23:41:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	177	58¢	$102	0x99dc1c…
07-20 23:41:36	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	177	52¢	$92	0x2fa166…
07-20 23:41:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	274	58¢	$159	0xca54c6…
07-20 23:41:33	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	274	52¢	$144	0x033bcf…
07-20 14:15:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	300	16¢	$48	0x88d2b0…
07-20 10:24:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	109	11¢	$12	0x7c6844…
07-20 10:24:48	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xb7b515…
07-20 10:23:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	220	10¢	$22	0xd5d842…
07-20 10:23:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xbf3146…
07-20 10:23:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x7dfa66…
07-20 10:23:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	110	10¢	$11	0x2aec44…
07-20 10:11:57	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	59	86¢	$51	0xaa019f…