Optimal-Forage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$774

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$30.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$919

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 05-08 17:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

79% 0% $-776

Other

21% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	6	$8.1K	7,979	3,511	+4,468	open	—	04-27 12:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	3	$6.3K	3,397	3,397	+0	open	—	04-26 20:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$5.5K	3,064	3,064	+0	open	—	05-04 20:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$4.6K	5,084	5,084	+0	open	—	05-08 17:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$2.9K	3,714	3,714	+0	open	—	05-06 16:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$1.2K	5,820	5,820	+0	No	$-753	05-06 15:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$607	749	749	+0	open	—	04-28 19:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$371	583	583	+0	open	—	05-07 14:09
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	2	$230	139	139	+0	open	—	05-08 17:55
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$202	227	227	+0	Yes	+$2	05-05 17:30
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	2	$105	8,360	2,090	+6,270	open	—	04-29 12:35
Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?	1	$100	150	0	+150	open	—	05-01 13:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$37	208	208	+0	No	$-23	05-06 21:01
Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference?	1	$30	43	0	+43	open	—	04-29 12:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 17:56:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,084	38¢	$1,932	0x40b489…
05-08 17:55:14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	139	94¢	$130	0x8d41c8…
05-07 14:09:27	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	55¢	$1,100	0xdc948a…
05-07 14:09:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	583	29¢	$171	0x838e57…
05-07 14:04:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	583	34¢	$200	0x8f37a4…
05-06 21:36:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,084	52¢	$1,600	0xa1ce20…
05-06 21:34:10	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x08bf94…
05-06 21:01:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	208	4¢	$7	0x140e0a…
05-06 16:23:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,714	37¢	$1,368	0x468153…
05-06 16:07:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,714	40¢	$1,500	0x17cf93…
05-06 15:59:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,820	4¢	$247	0x930c65…
05-06 11:23:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,820	17¢	$1,000	0x50b40b…
05-05 21:02:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	208	14¢	$30	0x88a8b6…
05-05 17:30:36	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	227	45¢	$102	0x40f9ba…
05-04 20:20:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	3,064	96¢	$2,954	0x66db8d…
05-01 13:08:14	Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xd02b35…
04-29 12:42:32	Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xe9f1ad…
04-29 12:35:48	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,090	0¢	$5	0xdbb69c…
04-29 08:51:12	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,360	1¢	$100	0x1f744e…
04-28 21:35:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,829	82¢	$1,500	0x1dc3d3…
04-28 19:04:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	749	40¢	$300	0x33351b…
04-28 18:56:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,235	81¢	$1,000	0xcee940…
04-27 14:21:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	749	41¢	$307	0xe37a1d…
04-27 12:10:04	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	3,511	58¢	$2,024	0x857735…
04-26 20:49:16	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	2,729	73¢	$2,000	0x5d8694…
04-26 20:14:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,397	98¢	$3,317	0x212b78…
04-26 19:59:08	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	1,330	75¢	$1,000	0x3f5d62…
04-26 19:21:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	1,351	74¢	$1,000	0xf86e68…
04-26 15:53:28	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	2,452	82¢	$2,000	0x58cb98…
04-25 18:59:38	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0xb37f4a…
04-25 18:53:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x633e5d…
04-22 14:49:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,256	89¢	$2,000	0x13b4e9…
04-22 14:32:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,141	88¢	$1,000	0x5b56f0…