Closed-Manipulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.5%

Resolved

Trades

100

lifetime

Volume

$679

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 05-06 19:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

81% 50% $-0

Other

19% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	6	$106	112	112	+0	open	—	03-31 00:09
Will Trump name "Newsom" or "Newscum" in April?	2	$58	33	33	+0	open	—	04-05 12:07
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	6	$53	1,057	57	+1,000	open	—	04-23 05:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$32	37	37	+0	open	—	04-08 15:25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	04-18 13:26
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	5	$28	39	39	+0	open	—	03-31 15:47
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$25	174	0	+174	open	—	04-20 20:56
will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	2	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	03-19 09:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$22	40	40	+0	Yes	+$2	04-09 10:44
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	2	$20	23	23	+0	open	—	04-08 20:24
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?	1	$20	57	0	+57	open	—	04-02 20:01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	03-09 10:06
military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	2	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	04-08 20:36
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	4	$18	342	342	+0	open	—	04-20 07:51
will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	2	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	03-16 06:59
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	2	$16	26	0	+26	open	—	03-03 15:06
will iran strike israel on march 3	3	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	03-04 09:46
bitboy convicted	3	$13	25	25	+0	open	—	03-31 16:16
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	2	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	05-06 19:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$12	2,750	1,375	+1,375	open	—	04-07 00:38
will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-02 19:38
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	2	$10	19	19	+0	open	—	03-13 20:24
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	1	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	04-04 15:52
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	3	$9	2,500	1,250	+1,250	open	—	04-07 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	2	$8	39	0	+39	open	—	04-07 11:06
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	1	$8	19	0	+19	open	—	03-04 09:55
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$7	17	17	+0	open	—	03-30 08:44
will trump say fantastic during events with rutte	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	04-08 08:54
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$6	17	17	+0	open	—	03-30 08:44
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	2	$6	21	21	+0	open	—	04-20 20:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 19:25:33	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xf6a51e…
05-06 10:01:04	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	BUY	121	2¢	$2	0x1d70f6…
05-06 10:00:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xda1f0b…
05-03 18:36:28	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa5fde9…
05-03 18:36:14	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x33d58a…
04-23 05:49:42	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x73c058…
04-20 20:56:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0xf6d92e…
04-20 20:55:58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	SELL	21	13¢	$3	0x18e1e6…
04-20 07:51:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	34	19¢	$6	0x4b9e04…
04-20 07:51:26	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	SELL	342	2¢	$6	0xe5a583…
04-19 10:06:30	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	32	19¢	$6	0xdd709b…
04-18 13:26:26	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x784dc2…
04-18 13:26:18	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x50b5db…
04-18 13:26:02	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x11436c…
04-14 05:20:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	57	29¢	$16	0x3225d4…
04-09 20:00:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	16	71¢	$12	0x214754…
04-09 19:59:03	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	129	4¢	$5	0x3082d0…
04-09 10:45:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xfc990f…
04-09 10:44:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0xd8a250…
04-08 20:37:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xc4e0a8…
04-08 20:36:21	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	Yes	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0x55a038…
04-08 20:32:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xeb1e78…
04-08 20:32:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x238cad…
04-08 20:24:27	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	SELL	23	44¢	$10	0xafb8d8…
04-08 15:29:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x3dd6c0…
04-08 15:27:29	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xa1e1b5…
04-08 15:25:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0xd01683…
04-08 14:31:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0x7a639e…
04-08 13:13:31	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x020e98…
04-08 08:55:07	will trump say lucky during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x4800de…
04-08 08:55:03	will trump say lucky during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb559c5…
04-08 08:54:59	will trump say fantastic during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xdd1766…
04-08 05:50:27	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd277a5…
04-08 05:49:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xfd57bc…
04-08 05:49:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xd2b45e…
04-07 20:26:45	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	1,250	0¢	$4	0xeb90cd…
04-07 11:31:43	will trump say russia or ukraine 5 times during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x045ce6…
04-07 11:30:53	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x9bb62f…
04-07 11:06:17	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x7a4960…
04-07 08:38:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x74cb37…
04-07 07:35:25	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xb9b4f0…
04-07 07:33:31	btc updown 5m 1775547000	Down	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xd45eb2…
04-07 00:38:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	1,375	0¢	$4	0x99fb7b…
04-06 06:41:27	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x5e8e6c…
04-06 06:36:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x7c323c…
04-05 17:26:33	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x668a04…
04-05 17:26:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x0b2015…
04-05 12:09:39	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0xd6fbbe…
04-05 12:09:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xa4ff0b…
04-05 12:07:11	Will Trump name "Newsom" or "Newscum" in April?	Yes	SELL	33	87¢	$28	0x96cfcb…
04-04 15:52:51	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x4da035…
04-04 12:13:43	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	186	3¢	$5	0xd21b4e…
04-02 20:01:45	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xc0b76e…
04-02 20:01:15	Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xd516d5…
04-02 19:57:47	Will Trump name "Newsom" or "Newscum" in April?	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x9ccd49…
04-02 19:38:19	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xca1eb7…
04-01 10:03:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x661d30…
03-31 16:16:07	bitboy convicted	No	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0xd02f00…
03-31 15:47:09	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	29	48¢	$14	0x0db99d…
03-31 10:25:43	bitboy convicted	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf2194b…
03-31 10:25:29	bitboy convicted	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xd565a5…
03-31 09:41:03	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x473576…
03-31 09:39:57	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xfdf52f…
03-31 00:09:23	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	SELL	54	98¢	$52	0x68c1d8…
03-30 19:18:55	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x105813…
03-30 19:05:23	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x90fdc3…
03-30 13:24:08	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xbd655c…
03-30 09:52:44	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x09c847…
03-30 09:47:18	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x82c879…
03-30 09:13:04	usisrael strike yemen by march 31	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x7cbb33…
03-30 08:44:32	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x93cb83…
03-30 08:44:26	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x6c0534…
03-30 08:44:26	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x4d7ec1…
03-30 08:43:18	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	SELL	44	53¢	$23	0x71700f…
03-20 15:34:19	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x7586e9…
03-20 15:33:09	will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xa2812b…
03-20 12:34:49	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xcdb2b4…
03-19 09:18:07	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x48a5a4…
03-19 09:17:39	will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	SELL	16	68¢	$11	0x8c00b1…
03-17 16:27:13	will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x8db080…
03-16 06:59:15	will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	Yes	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0xbec8b4…
03-13 20:24:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x50d3bc…
03-13 20:24:03	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xf6aa59…
03-13 16:49:39	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by march 31	Yes	BUY	104	2¢	$2	0x9b5901…
03-13 16:37:47	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xbbd1fc…
03-13 16:36:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x32616c…
03-13 16:34:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x7a0269…
03-09 10:38:05	will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	Yes	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0xe65146…
03-09 10:34:49	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xffddac…
03-09 10:06:29	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x46ece7…
03-05 16:36:07	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x1322e6…
03-04 09:55:51	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	Yes	BUY	19	39¢	$8	0x795c5e…
03-04 09:46:59	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x5d6135…
03-03 15:36:07	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x00e0a7…
03-03 15:35:29	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xd2cfde…
03-03 15:09:25	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$5	0xd09bbf…
03-03 15:06:03	will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	Yes	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0x12ce12…
03-03 13:58:19	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9a8d21…
03-03 13:53:53	will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x8aec58…
02-28 07:03:27	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xd68ede…