Closed-Manipulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.5%

Resolved

Trades

101

lifetime

Volume

$682

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 07-02 18:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

81% 50% $-0

Other

19% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	6	$106	112	112	+0	open	—	03-31 00:09
Will Trump name "Newsom" or "Newscum" in April?	2	$58	33	33	+0	open	—	04-05 12:07
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	6	$53	1,057	57	+1,000	open	—	04-23 05:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$32	37	37	+0	open	—	04-08 15:25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	04-18 13:26
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	5	$28	39	39	+0	open	—	03-31 15:47
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$25	174	0	+174	open	—	04-20 20:56
will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	2	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	03-19 09:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$22	40	40	+0	Yes	+$2	04-09 10:44
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	2	$20	23	23	+0	open	—	04-08 20:24
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?	1	$20	57	0	+57	open	—	04-02 20:01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	03-09 10:06
military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	2	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	04-08 20:36
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	4	$18	342	342	+0	open	—	04-20 07:51
will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	2	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	03-16 06:59
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	2	$16	26	0	+26	open	—	03-03 15:06
will iran strike israel on march 3	3	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	03-04 09:46
bitboy convicted	3	$13	25	25	+0	open	—	03-31 16:16
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	2	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	05-06 19:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$12	2,750	1,375	+1,375	open	—	04-07 00:38
will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-02 19:38
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	2	$10	19	19	+0	open	—	03-13 20:24
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	1	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	04-04 15:52
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	3	$9	2,500	1,250	+1,250	open	—	04-07 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	2	$8	39	0	+39	open	—	04-07 11:06
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	1	$8	19	0	+19	open	—	03-04 09:55
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$7	17	17	+0	open	—	03-30 08:44
will trump say fantastic during events with rutte	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	04-08 08:54
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$6	17	17	+0	open	—	03-30 08:44
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	2	$6	21	21	+0	open	—	04-20 20:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 18:24:25	will trump speak to mojtaba khamenei in july 20260626154217442	Yes	BUY	235	1¢	$3	0x391c1a…
05-06 19:25:33	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xf6a51e…
05-06 10:01:04	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	BUY	121	2¢	$2	0x1d70f6…
05-06 10:00:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xda1f0b…
05-03 18:36:28	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa5fde9…
05-03 18:36:14	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x33d58a…
04-23 05:49:42	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x73c058…
04-20 20:56:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0xf6d92e…
04-20 20:55:58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	SELL	21	13¢	$3	0x18e1e6…
04-20 07:51:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	34	19¢	$6	0x4b9e04…
04-20 07:51:26	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	SELL	342	2¢	$6	0xe5a583…
04-19 10:06:30	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	32	19¢	$6	0xdd709b…
04-18 13:26:26	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x784dc2…
04-18 13:26:18	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x50b5db…
04-18 13:26:02	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x11436c…
04-14 05:20:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	57	29¢	$16	0x3225d4…
04-09 20:00:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	16	71¢	$12	0x214754…
04-09 19:59:03	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	129	4¢	$5	0x3082d0…
04-09 10:45:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xfc990f…
04-09 10:44:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0xd8a250…
04-08 20:37:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xc4e0a8…
04-08 20:36:21	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	Yes	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0x55a038…
04-08 20:32:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xeb1e78…
04-08 20:32:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x238cad…
04-08 20:24:27	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	SELL	23	44¢	$10	0xafb8d8…
04-08 15:29:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x3dd6c0…
04-08 15:27:29	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xa1e1b5…
04-08 15:25:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0xd01683…
04-08 14:31:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0x7a639e…
04-08 13:13:31	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x020e98…
04-08 08:55:07	will trump say lucky during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x4800de…
04-08 08:55:03	will trump say lucky during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb559c5…
04-08 08:54:59	will trump say fantastic during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xdd1766…
04-08 05:50:27	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd277a5…
04-08 05:49:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xfd57bc…
04-08 05:49:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xd2b45e…
04-07 20:26:45	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	1,250	0¢	$4	0xeb90cd…
04-07 11:31:43	will trump say russia or ukraine 5 times during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x045ce6…
04-07 11:30:53	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x9bb62f…
04-07 11:06:17	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x7a4960…
04-07 08:38:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x74cb37…
04-07 07:35:25	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xb9b4f0…
04-07 07:33:31	btc updown 5m 1775547000	Down	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xd45eb2…
04-07 00:38:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	1,375	0¢	$4	0x99fb7b…
04-06 06:41:27	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x5e8e6c…
04-06 06:36:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x7c323c…
04-05 17:26:33	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x668a04…
04-05 17:26:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x0b2015…
04-05 12:09:39	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0xd6fbbe…
04-05 12:09:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xa4ff0b…
04-05 12:07:11	Will Trump name "Newsom" or "Newscum" in April?	Yes	SELL	33	87¢	$28	0x96cfcb…
04-04 15:52:51	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x4da035…
04-04 12:13:43	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	186	3¢	$5	0xd21b4e…
04-02 20:01:45	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xc0b76e…
04-02 20:01:15	Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xd516d5…
04-02 19:57:47	Will Trump name "Newsom" or "Newscum" in April?	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x9ccd49…
04-02 19:38:19	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xca1eb7…
04-01 10:03:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x661d30…
03-31 16:16:07	bitboy convicted	No	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0xd02f00…
03-31 15:47:09	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	29	48¢	$14	0x0db99d…
03-31 10:25:43	bitboy convicted	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf2194b…
03-31 10:25:29	bitboy convicted	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xd565a5…
03-31 09:41:03	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x473576…
03-31 09:39:57	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xfdf52f…
03-31 00:09:23	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	SELL	54	98¢	$52	0x68c1d8…
03-30 19:18:55	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x105813…
03-30 19:05:23	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x90fdc3…
03-30 13:24:08	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xbd655c…
03-30 09:52:44	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x09c847…
03-30 09:47:18	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x82c879…
03-30 09:13:04	usisrael strike yemen by march 31	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x7cbb33…
03-30 08:44:32	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x93cb83…
03-30 08:44:26	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x6c0534…
03-30 08:44:26	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x4d7ec1…
03-30 08:43:18	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	SELL	44	53¢	$23	0x71700f…
03-20 15:34:19	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x7586e9…
03-20 15:33:09	will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xa2812b…
03-20 12:34:49	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xcdb2b4…
03-19 09:18:07	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x48a5a4…
03-19 09:17:39	will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	SELL	16	68¢	$11	0x8c00b1…
03-17 16:27:13	will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x8db080…
03-16 06:59:15	will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	Yes	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0xbec8b4…
03-13 20:24:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x50d3bc…
03-13 20:24:03	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xf6aa59…
03-13 16:49:39	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by march 31	Yes	BUY	104	2¢	$2	0x9b5901…
03-13 16:37:47	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xbbd1fc…
03-13 16:36:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x32616c…
03-13 16:34:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x7a0269…
03-09 10:38:05	will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	Yes	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0xe65146…
03-09 10:34:49	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xffddac…
03-09 10:06:29	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x46ece7…
03-05 16:36:07	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x1322e6…
03-04 09:55:51	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	Yes	BUY	19	39¢	$8	0x795c5e…
03-04 09:46:59	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x5d6135…
03-03 15:36:07	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x00e0a7…
03-03 15:35:29	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xd2cfde…
03-03 15:09:25	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$5	0xd09bbf…
03-03 15:06:03	will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	Yes	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0x12ce12…
03-03 13:58:19	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9a8d21…
03-03 13:53:53	will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x8aec58…