Safe-Panel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$276

Unrealized P&L

+$69

Hit rate

91.8%

Resolved

Trades

702

lifetime

Volume

$99.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$141

Open exposure

$196

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-07 10:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

55% — —

Politics

45% 50% $-276

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+205	$127	96¢	$196	+$69	06-29 11:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	16	$10.6K	8,699	8,699	+0	Yes	+$34	03-16 10:35
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	48	$10.2K	10,473	6,516	+3,957	open	—	03-29 11:26
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	64	$8.2K	9,634	10,106	-472	open	—	02-25 19:29
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	20	$7.4K	4,065	4,065	+0	open	—	03-31 19:29
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	52	$7.2K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-25 14:28
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 15	13	$4.4K	1,675	2,979	-1,304	open	—	01-11 13:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	26	$4.3K	14,817	7,408	+7,408	open	—	04-08 19:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	23	$3.8K	4,292	517	+3,774	open	—	04-01 11:18
will russia capture all of prymorske by february 28 2026	10	$3.3K	1,900	1,900	+0	open	—	02-20 12:27
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	15	$2.9K	2,581	2,631	-50	open	—	05-14 12:32
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 31	19	$2.6K	1,846	1,336	+509	open	—	01-31 05:37
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-30 12:11
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	20	$2.4K	1,238	1,238	+0	open	—	04-27 13:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	12	$2.2K	1,270	1,270	-0	open	—	07-07 10:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	12	$2.0K	1,909	1,880	+29	open	—	03-24 17:18
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 15	9	$1.9K	690	1,414	-724	open	—	01-15 23:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$1.7K	1,003	1,003	+0	open	—	04-27 11:06
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	18	$1.5K	1,200	1,063	+138	open	—	01-31 23:06
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	19	$1.2K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	02-04 20:28
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	7	$1.1K	595	595	+0	open	—	07-02 12:26
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	5	$953	499	499	+0	open	—	05-20 07:16
will russia capture kostyantynivka by january 31	8	$948	1,744	931	+813	open	—	01-11 01:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$940	685	342	+342	Yes	$-310	04-29 11:49
will russia capture hryshyne by february 28 2026	5	$935	515	515	+0	open	—	02-27 23:48
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	3	$891	469	469	+0	open	—	03-03 16:58
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	2	$875	700	700	+0	open	—	03-02 06:54
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$860	512	512	+0	open	—	05-23 17:20
will russia capture hryshyne by march 31 2026 299	13	$826	613	621	-8	open	—	02-26 18:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$738	400	400	+0	open	—	06-28 22:53
will russia capture all of prymorske by march 31 2026 597	10	$724	359	583	-225	open	—	03-01 00:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 10:49:53	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	812	86¢	$699	0x6f078c…
07-07 10:45:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	441	99¢	$436	0xede97d…
07-06 19:17:59	atp dimitro fery 2026 07 06	Grigor Dimitrov	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xd2ad93…
07-06 19:17:22	atp dimitro fery 2026 07 06	Arthur Fery	SELL	77	60¢	$46	0x7722c4…
07-06 19:14:26	atp dimitro fery 2026 07 06	Arthur Fery	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x313f7b…
07-06 10:24:05	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	BUY	101	67¢	$68	0x70e2b8…
07-06 09:45:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	441	98¢	$433	0xf829cb…
07-04 21:57:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	294	95¢	$279	0x9914b6…
07-02 14:27:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	245	90¢	$220	0x7b82a5…
07-02 12:36:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0xceac7a…
07-02 12:26:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	595	99¢	$588	0x688694…
06-29 11:35:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x28a478…
06-29 11:35:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0x0c6ca4…
06-29 11:31:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x74e009…
06-29 11:31:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	76	62¢	$47	0x2e64c6…
06-29 01:13:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	136	77¢	$105	0xd6a8e0…
06-28 23:01:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	215	78¢	$168	0x158490…
06-28 22:53:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$396	0x76bbc2…
06-27 00:42:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	295	80¢	$236	0xc659c7…
06-27 00:39:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xfea5bd…
06-26 22:30:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x5450b8…
06-26 22:23:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x4bfba3…
06-26 22:17:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x3ffc28…
06-26 22:14:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	281	81¢	$228	0x8da580…
06-25 13:48:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	92	50¢	$46	0x7115b8…
06-25 13:47:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	94	48¢	$45	0xa07174…
06-25 13:45:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	94	49¢	$46	0x8db314…
06-25 13:42:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x237295…
06-25 13:42:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x635e5b…
06-25 13:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x0985c3…
06-25 13:23:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0xe062eb…
06-25 13:23:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	70	85¢	$60	0x9e0ff6…
05-30 19:46:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	185	85¢	$157	0x3baceb…
05-23 17:20:15	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	512	96¢	$491	0xf5ce3d…
05-20 07:16:27	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	249	100¢	$249	0x93c36d…
05-19 16:59:41	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	249	100¢	$248	0x563507…
05-17 00:07:23	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	69¢	$145	0x1d413c…
05-16 23:59:45	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	69¢	$52	0x47201a…
05-16 23:49:27	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	107	91¢	$97	0x1975b2…
05-16 22:31:50	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	60¢	$96	0x895c52…
05-16 20:54:34	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x851c9f…
05-16 20:53:45	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	71¢	$44	0xd07f4c…
05-16 20:41:09	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	71¢	$59	0x091ced…
05-14 18:00:54	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	227	76¢	$173	0x6bda13…
05-14 17:14:41	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	290	92¢	$267	0x20126d…
05-14 17:00:00	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	102	90¢	$92	0x27ff3f…
05-14 12:32:22	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$58	0x6aa319…
05-13 17:55:45	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$33	0x1e600b…
05-12 15:39:56	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	681	90¢	$610	0xd7641e…
05-12 09:32:16	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	681	88¢	$603	0x9314ec…
05-11 21:02:41	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	420	65¢	$272	0x8e19fd…
05-10 16:26:47	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x4b1051…
05-10 16:01:07	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	79	89¢	$70	0x39aa51…
05-10 15:37:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	169	70¢	$118	0x2be78a…
05-08 10:35:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	65¢	$40	0x15bb1d…
05-08 10:28:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	65¢	$70	0xa79c92…
05-06 15:56:08	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	269	91¢	$245	0xc3ffc7…
05-06 15:12:14	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	124	92¢	$114	0x6d1672…
05-06 13:14:50	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa43a75…
05-06 12:51:12	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	271	92¢	$248	0xddfa0e…
05-06 12:00:56	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	202	92¢	$186	0x103df0…
05-05 19:46:50	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xd3351d…
05-05 17:17:06	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x972362…
04-29 11:49:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	342	92¢	$315	0x062093…
04-27 13:44:06	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	138	99¢	$137	0x0c4f9a…
04-27 13:03:30	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0xaa87a1…
04-27 11:25:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	435	92¢	$400	0x0325de…
04-27 11:06:16	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	813	99¢	$807	0xeddbf5…
04-22 11:06:34	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	138	94¢	$131	0x16d6d5…
04-15 20:27:18	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0x7087c8…
04-15 20:19:36	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	35	69¢	$24	0x784914…
04-15 20:01:00	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	75	70¢	$52	0xe1f21b…
04-15 12:56:28	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x126dc4…
04-15 12:24:08	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xb81b5d…
04-15 10:03:06	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0xf4a539…
04-14 20:56:18	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	73¢	$109	0x8b6359…
04-13 15:45:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x35969f…
04-13 14:08:09	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$3	0x58ee2a…
04-13 12:23:55	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	177	0¢	$1	0xff0f07…
04-13 12:23:51	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0x912abb…
04-13 12:23:51	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x6fda5f…
04-13 12:23:51	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x2262c1…
04-13 12:23:51	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	269	0¢	$1	0x0c71a8…
04-13 12:23:11	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	269	0¢	$1	0x0eabc5…
04-13 12:23:07	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x32e8a3…
04-13 12:22:55	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xcf2e41…
04-13 12:22:55	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x7fc51d…
04-13 12:22:55	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x396c6d…
04-13 12:10:35	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9 12	Yes	BUY	131	0¢	$0	0xe9cb5e…
04-12 18:53:59	will tisza win at least 130 seats	Yes	SELL	150	87¢	$130	0xb4d1af…
04-12 17:16:43	will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	128	16¢	$21	0x6c2fe8…
04-12 17:16:05	will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	72	16¢	$12	0x182af6…
04-12 17:02:07	will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xa23c89…
04-12 12:36:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0x37b568…
04-11 23:44:03	will tisza win at least 130 seats	Yes	BUY	150	31¢	$46	0xbc55d9…
04-11 18:00:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1,003	71¢	$712	0x53bfcc…
04-11 11:19:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xd69064…
04-11 06:58:51	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0x1ac30a…
04-11 04:31:47	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	148	99¢	$146	0x0b0c55…
04-11 00:39:11	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	522	99¢	$515	0xf66b94…