Probable-Beggar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.00K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$36.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.80K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 05-24 13:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

49% 0% $-41

Other

49% 100% +$2,043

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$12.4K	7,463	7,463	+0	open	—	04-13 09:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$8.4K	7,247	7,247	+0	open	—	05-24 13:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$6.4K	7,698	7,698	+0	open	—	05-24 13:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	1	$5.0K	7,043	0	+7,043	Yes	+$2,043	05-03 20:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$3.0K	2,115	2,115	+0	Yes	$-41	04-10 14:00
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$339	435	435	+0	open	—	02-16 20:12
btc updown 5m 1771272600	4	$251	369	22	+347	open	—	02-16 20:15
Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026?	1	$142	0	145	-145	open	—	03-07 21:36
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	1	$100	209	0	+209	open	—	03-07 22:07
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$55	0	56	-56	open	—	02-16 20:12
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	1	$50	62	0	+62	open	—	03-07 22:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-24 13:58:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,698	37¢	$2,874	0x9d97ad…
05-24 13:27:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,698	45¢	$3,500	0x8eaac6…
05-24 13:27:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7,247	47¢	$3,429	0x586335…
05-24 09:33:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,247	69¢	$5,000	0x248c78…
05-03 20:46:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	7,043	71¢	$5,000	0x31dc06…
04-13 09:52:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	7,463	99¢	$7,369	0x888eaa…
04-10 14:00:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2,115	69¢	$1,459	0xac41de…
04-03 21:11:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,333	75¢	$1,000	0x6921ae…
04-03 21:07:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	7,463	67¢	$5,000	0xbf5a9d…
03-07 22:08:21	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x33b896…
03-07 22:07:37	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	No	BUY	209	48¢	$100	0xde61f1…
03-07 22:06:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	781	64¢	$500	0xc5aa33…
03-07 21:36:45	Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	SELL	145	98¢	$142	0x1eae1c…
02-16 20:15:39	btc updown 5m 1771272600	Down	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x1b4903…
02-16 20:14:47	btc updown 5m 1771272600	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x4053a5…
02-16 20:14:11	btc updown 5m 1771272600	Down	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x226d52…
02-16 20:13:49	btc updown 5m 1771272600	Down	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x09386b…
02-16 20:12:51	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	435	9¢	$39	0xc81bd8…
02-16 20:12:45	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0xfbd525…
01-24 13:15:12	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	435	69¢	$300	0xaa9d8d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	9	$84.4K	1,443	06-01 00:34
Pessimistic-Evocation 0x5f45…a77a	8	$178.7K	216	05-24 15:19
Outlandish-Endorsement 0xf97c…4b96	8	$33.7K	14	05-26 09:12
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	8	$18.4K	246	05-30 20:33
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	8	$8.69K	651	05-29 22:06
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	7	$64.9K	5,973	05-31 17:26
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	7	$8.99K	788	04-29 17:28
Short-Cloves 0xd104…7c02	7	$3.29K	46	05-27 17:44