Periodic-Espalier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$91

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

338

lifetime

Volume

$48.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$145

Open exposure

$117

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-13 04:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

81% — —

Politics

17% 100% +$91

Crypto

1% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President by June 30?	No		+106	$105	100¢	$106	+$1	06-13 04:39
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes		+168	$12	7¢	$11	$-0	06-04 12:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	181	$37.2K	18,648	19,736	-1,088	open	—	03-19 11:57
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	23	$4.4K	3,951	3,951	+0	open	—	05-23 14:49
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	3	$1.1K	2,222	1,111	+1,111	open	—	05-24 05:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	16	$855	1,400	2,488	-1,088	open	—	05-24 08:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	4	$445	224	224	+0	open	—	04-21 18:00
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?	2	$270	275	0	+275	open	—	05-13 15:03
will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	6	$262	140	140	+0	open	—	03-16 17:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$255	130	130	+0	open	—	05-12 12:06
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$249	126	126	+0	open	—	05-02 14:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$244	126	126	+0	open	—	05-08 13:37
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$211	106	106	+0	open	—	02-12 05:36
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	6	$208	109	109	+0	open	—	02-12 03:03
will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	2	$203	102	102	+0	open	—	01-10 17:00
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	3	$203	102	102	+0	open	—	01-08 14:13
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	3	$197	100	98	+2	open	—	03-26 13:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$194	103	103	+0	open	—	01-12 12:19
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	2	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	06-12 17:21
will peace be said at the oscars	1	$124	125	0	+125	open	—	03-16 06:01
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$121	121	0	+121	open	—	04-07 14:23
will trump say fed or federal reserve during no tax on tips roundtable	1	$111	112	0	+112	open	—	04-17 05:09
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Maduro" this week?	2	$111	56	56	+0	open	—	05-03 06:21
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$106	106	0	+106	Yes	+$0	02-13 05:16
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$105	106	0	+106	open	—	06-13 04:39
will bitcoin dip to 45k in january 2026	1	$103	103	0	+103	open	—	01-21 00:01
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$102	51	51	+0	open	—	03-16 02:48
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Bitcoin" this week?	2	$95	48	48	+0	open	—	05-03 07:40
military action against iran ends on march 19 2026	1	$95	95	0	+95	open	—	03-20 03:16
will iran strike israel on march 4	2	$81	41	40	+1	open	—	03-09 13:19
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$63	32	32	+0	open	—	03-28 12:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$55	146	0	+146	Yes	+$91	02-20 12:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 04:39:33	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xe58684…
06-12 17:21:15	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x72f9d7…
06-06 13:42:24	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x800359…
06-04 12:17:06	will steven hill advance from the ca 37 primary election	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x84e533…
06-04 12:16:42	will john thompson parker advance from the ca 37 primary election	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x24bf87…
06-04 12:15:33	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xfdeb82…
06-04 12:10:46	will eugene weems advance from the ca 33 primary election	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x977456…
06-04 12:09:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	168	7¢	$12	0xfe27a7…
05-30 09:06:11	Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0b728a…
05-30 04:44:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x17d52a…
05-29 00:09:05	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xde1754…
05-28 13:09:03	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x717bb0…
05-25 02:39:32	Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0xd8a57e…
05-25 02:36:06	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x18b35c…
05-24 08:58:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,139	20¢	$228	0x9e1ce2…
05-24 08:55:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,037	20¢	$207	0x8e7ed1…
05-24 08:54:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	20¢	$5	0xeabf68…
05-24 08:54:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	21¢	$16	0x33343b…
05-24 08:53:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x2fcdf8…
05-24 08:52:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x127c7c…
05-24 08:52:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xbf8304…
05-24 08:51:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x2f6c3d…
05-24 08:49:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0xbd0131…
05-24 08:48:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	28¢	$10	0x9f775f…
05-24 08:48:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xbc8fa7…
05-24 08:48:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x7823a2…
05-24 08:48:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x77ca51…
05-24 08:48:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0xa673fd…
05-24 08:48:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x84581f…
05-24 08:48:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x99bc36…
05-24 05:17:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,109	0xe2e0cb…
05-24 05:08:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	1,111	0¢	$1	0xe9502e…
05-24 05:07:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	1,111	0¢	$1	0x0dc077…
05-23 14:49:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1,111	100¢	$1,107	0xc0cd25…
05-23 14:44:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,107	0x1ada88…
05-23 13:37:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1,100	100¢	$1,096	0x8d2f01…
05-23 13:31:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	1,100	100¢	$1,096	0x09c352…
05-23 10:55:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	195	0¢	$1	0x697606…
05-23 10:55:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x65dc76…
05-23 10:54:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xcb300d…
05-23 10:53:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x44cced…
05-23 10:52:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x94534b…
05-23 10:51:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x8de91d…
05-23 10:51:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x6e9601…
05-23 10:50:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x63832e…
05-23 10:50:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0xa67bbb…
05-23 10:49:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x2819ec…
05-23 10:49:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xe5c4d4…
05-23 10:48:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x627268…
05-23 10:48:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x661198…
05-23 10:47:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xaa1614…
05-23 10:46:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xee90f9…
05-23 10:46:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x2422c3…
05-23 10:45:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xf8deea…
05-23 10:43:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,500	0¢	$4	0x5e40d9…
05-23 10:42:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$4	0x1eae75…
05-13 15:03:00	Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xe7330e…
05-13 13:30:31	Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	BUY	272	98¢	$266	0xe843f6…
05-12 12:06:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	130	99¢	$128	0x09ffc9…
05-10 05:54:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	130	97¢	$127	0xb089bf…
05-08 13:37:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	126	97¢	$122	0x44b8df…
05-08 01:21:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	126	96¢	$122	0x824c51…
05-03 07:40:28	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Bitcoin" this week?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xfbf0af…
05-03 06:21:18	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Maduro" this week?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xe3906f…
05-03 06:08:24	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Warsh" this week?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xcb7a00…
05-03 06:06:56	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Russia" this week?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x01668d…
05-03 04:46:58	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Bitcoin" this week?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x4c5a6b…
05-03 04:46:32	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Maduro" this week?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0xf64ed9…
05-03 04:46:22	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Warsh" this week?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x9a2dc1…
05-03 04:46:02	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Russia" this week?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xee1fdc…
05-02 14:40:10	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0xa0f192…
04-30 15:38:44	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	126	98¢	$124	0x464ca8…
04-21 18:00:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x92e4c7…
04-21 08:08:44	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x787649…
04-19 12:35:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0xa5e320…
04-19 12:07:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x6c6651…
04-18 23:12:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0xdada71…
04-17 05:09:32	will trump say fed or federal reserve during no tax on tips roundtable	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0x9a8e22…
04-13 13:36:23	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x4db2c6…
04-07 14:23:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x98587a…
04-06 04:51:45	will trump post epic fury on truth social this week 889	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8e7464…
03-28 12:20:47	will gas hit low 3pt05 by march 31	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8f2b4e…
03-28 12:20:17	hillary clinton charged by march 31	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x22cdfc…
03-28 12:19:47	will trump meet with putin by march 31	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xce503e…
03-28 12:18:07	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x8c7e80…
03-26 13:32:21	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x88f362…
03-26 13:29:31	will the us tariff rate on china be less than 5 on march 31	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb332e6…
03-26 13:28:35	will meituan have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0a4e98…
03-26 13:27:37	will gold gc hit high 5600 by end of march	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x26baf4…
03-26 13:26:57	will silver si hit high 130 by end of march	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xfbe181…
03-26 13:26:09	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x886ae2…
03-26 13:25:45	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7c02ee…
03-26 13:25:21	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xae0774…
03-26 13:25:03	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0d05a7…
03-26 13:24:59	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x284a32…
03-24 13:37:43	highest temperature in chongqing on march 24 2026 19c	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd3cc30…
03-24 13:37:09	will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2e311f…
03-24 13:36:43	will ethereum dip to 800 in march 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa0ff9e…
03-24 13:35:43	Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xffa68c…
03-24 13:35:39	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0x586939…