Scary-Saw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$105

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.3%

Resolved

Trades

458

lifetime

Volume

$14.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-21 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

52% — —

Politics

39% — —

Sports

5% 0% $-110

Crypto

3% 100% +$5

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$1.4K	2,506	2,506	+0	open	—	05-29 14:48
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	45	$1.1K	1,856	2,016	-160	open	—	04-27 17:03
cbb txam hou 2026 03 21	9	$760	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-20 19:28
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	10	$641	1,125	1,125	+0	open	—	02-26 14:30
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	7	$628	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	03-05 20:36
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	2	$462	450	450	+0	open	—	02-27 19:00
cbb vcu ill 2026 03 21	2	$329	940	940	+0	open	—	03-20 16:28
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	2	$306	180	180	+0	open	—	05-25 16:17
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$301	200	200	+0	open	—	04-08 22:15
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	10	$299	824	804	+20	open	—	04-01 13:26
cbb tcu duke 2026 03 21	2	$290	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 17:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$279	220	220	+0	open	—	04-20 23:33
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$279	300	300	+0	open	—	03-17 18:54
will pltr dip to 126 in february	8	$276	1,063	1,063	+0	open	—	02-26 14:45
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	3	$262	250	250	+0	open	—	04-27 13:20
cbb akron txtech 2026 03 20	3	$260	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 17:22
will real madrid reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	3	$255	140	140	+0	open	—	03-17 22:11
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	6	$253	200	200	+0	open	—	04-01 22:43
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$250	155	200	-45	open	—	06-05 17:17
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$243	600	600	+0	open	—	04-12 23:21
us strikes iraq by february 28	4	$240	243	243	+0	open	—	03-01 18:12
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	10	$240	420	420	+0	open	—	04-11 22:45
cbb hofst ala 2026 03 20	2	$239	1,000	980	+20	open	—	03-20 20:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$232	380	380	+0	open	—	05-31 17:25
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	03-06 14:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$184	200	200	+0	open	—	04-21 15:39
ere aja sit 2026 02 14 aja	4	$170	87	87	+0	open	—	02-14 22:28
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	6	$162	150	150	+0	open	—	05-16 21:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$156	597	430	+167	open	—	04-01 13:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$151	80	80	+0	open	—	03-28 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 16:00:31	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x8c80b3…
07-19 09:46:52	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xc2fcdd…
07-14 14:02:23	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	31	46¢	$14	0xc813a8…
07-14 11:04:29	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x3311e4…
07-14 10:59:43	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xb0f42d…
07-09 13:46:37	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x9626d3…
07-03 10:48:58	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xa42c71…
07-01 22:44:22	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	SELL	71	16¢	$11	0xf6fd29…
07-01 19:12:58	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0xa9245b…
07-01 13:43:28	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x8e77d2…
06-28 08:24:10	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	Yes	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x83728f…
06-27 20:37:40	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x8015bc…
06-27 19:21:37	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x60c5d7…
06-27 19:20:23	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xc65f5a…
06-24 16:04:38	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0x5fa096…
06-24 13:24:07	Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0x4c7be6…
06-24 13:19:58	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	Yes	SELL	31	26¢	$8	0xb10a79…
06-24 13:19:52	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120742	Yes	SELL	35	19¢	$7	0x2e72b8…
06-24 13:18:52	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120742	Yes	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0xc684a1…
06-24 13:07:49	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xf3d199…
06-24 10:19:49	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x36453e…
06-23 13:55:41	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa76ab8…
06-15 02:13:16	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xc8391b…
06-15 02:11:19	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Mauricio Ruffy	SELL	49	99¢	$49	0xa4c577…
06-15 02:02:19	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Mauricio Ruffy	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x2b23e4…
06-15 01:07:27	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xd93351…
06-15 01:03:57	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Steve Garcia	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa5127f…
06-15 01:02:54	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Steve Garcia	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x0c1955…
06-15 00:56:40	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	SELL	17	59¢	$10	0x6cd17c…
06-15 00:42:15	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x266974…
06-15 00:42:03	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14 go the distance	Yes	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x584465…
06-14 23:49:12	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Mauricio Ruffy	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x831483…
06-14 23:44:00	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Mauricio Ruffy	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x6227d1…
06-14 23:41:57	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x399ad2…
06-05 17:17:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x495ced…
06-03 15:10:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	77	67¢	$52	0x6b5dea…
06-03 15:05:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xc7715f…
06-03 14:54:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0xdd1137…
06-03 14:52:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	57	67¢	$38	0xd20ff4…
06-03 14:44:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x67735a…
06-03 14:42:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x8cb1ba…
05-31 17:25:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	380	30¢	$114	0xde6f86…
05-31 17:04:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	380	31¢	$118	0xbd4f42…
05-31 16:57:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$2	0x578cc5…
05-31 16:55:01	Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x44d917…
05-30 13:14:04	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xbbba6d…
05-29 14:59:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x65419e…
05-29 14:59:14	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	120	78¢	$93	0x874566…
05-29 14:48:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	707	6¢	$42	0xf27aa6…
05-29 14:23:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	707	7¢	$49	0x3b0f72…
05-28 22:55:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x3cc90d…
05-28 22:52:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x981d4c…
05-28 22:52:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xc82110…
05-28 14:28:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xb965b6…
05-26 15:28:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x97559c…
05-26 14:46:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	24¢	$120	0xe20a36…
05-26 14:38:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	24¢	$120	0x74f056…
05-26 14:07:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	138	25¢	$34	0xf06b2a…
05-26 14:07:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	412	25¢	$103	0x1f0f55…
05-26 13:56:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	550	26¢	$143	0xccda6b…
05-25 16:17:38	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	180	90¢	$162	0xdda290…
05-22 20:06:20	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	180	80¢	$144	0x9112ed…
05-18 12:57:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	40	57¢	$23	0x57ac8d…
05-18 12:44:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xdacecd…
05-18 12:41:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0xf8320c…
05-16 21:16:00	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	Yes	SELL	110	54¢	$59	0x0a635e…
05-16 20:13:53	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	Yes	BUY	110	54¢	$59	0xdfc549…
05-16 19:45:37	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x56cdb9…
05-16 19:40:06	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xc78d42…
05-16 19:39:33	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x062c7b…
05-16 19:25:07	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x38f5f2…
05-09 10:20:36	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x578b86…
05-09 10:15:42	UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0294b3…
04-30 14:03:04	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	16	27¢	$4	0xa56404…
04-30 07:54:38	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x9e37b1…
04-30 00:38:38	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xed3674…
04-29 08:29:28	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x720bbb…
04-28 22:07:00	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x0c651e…
04-28 13:18:34	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x5f7ed4…
04-27 17:03:56	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,028	10¢	$107	0x469d73…
04-27 16:51:10	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,028	10¢	$105	0x8ef013…
04-27 13:20:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	250	51¢	$127	0xe65e57…
04-27 12:15:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x08c3c4…
04-27 12:15:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x276e01…
04-27 12:00:28	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd81873…
04-27 12:00:10	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xca8b97…
04-27 11:59:58	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc9ef1d…
04-26 08:19:48	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	8¢	$3	0xb7db08…
04-25 05:58:44	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	29	59¢	$17	0x0b3b99…
04-25 05:58:28	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xde25f4…
04-24 10:24:46	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0x181818…
04-24 10:15:20	bun lei uni 2026 04 24 lei	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x6239bf…
04-23 14:38:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	390	38¢	$148	0xfc9d09…
04-23 14:24:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	38¢	$73	0x4474f2…
04-23 14:24:06	lal ovi vil 2026 04 23 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x16a0c9…
04-23 14:20:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	38¢	$75	0x7f2334…
04-23 07:45:40	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xb9d177…
04-22 00:42:30	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 bar	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x2f2061…
04-22 00:42:06	dfb lev bay 2026 04 22 bay	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x943a0a…
04-21 15:39:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0xc776d2…