Tender-Cayenne — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$33

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

8.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$244

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-05 16:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

49% 33% $-13

Crypto

34% — —

Sports

9% 0% $-20

Politics

6% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-9	$-4	46¢	$-4	$-0	05-30 17:16
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+4	$3	80¢	$3	+$0	06-05 16:22
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	-5	$-3	59¢	$-3	$-0	05-30 17:16
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	+4	$-1	78¢	$3	+$3	06-05 15:59
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	-1	$-1	72¢	$-1	$-0	05-30 17:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$78	573	0	+573	open	—	05-03 16:07
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	2	$61	44	40	+4	open	—	06-05 15:59
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	2	$25	71	0	+71	open	—	02-27 18:10
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$20	57	0	+57	No	$-20	04-19 13:05
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$12	21	0	+21	Yes	$-12	03-22 16:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$8	26	0	+26	open	—	03-24 16:48
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	02-27 18:07
trump approval up or down this week 596	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	02-27 20:30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	1	$4	0	9	-9	open	—	05-30 17:16
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	06-05 16:22
bitcoin up or down march 13 3pm et	2	$3	120	0	+120	open	—	03-13 19:55
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	03-13 20:03
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	1	$3	0	5	-5	open	—	05-30 17:16
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-13 20:01
will bad bunny have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month 952	1	$2	15	0	+15	open	—	02-27 17:57
will bitcoin dip to 66k march 9 15	1	$2	26	0	+26	open	—	03-13 19:58
will trumps approval rating be less than 41pt0 on march 6 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	02-27 20:30
will uae strike iran by march 31	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-13 20:01
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	2	$1	48	48	+0	No	$-1	04-25 13:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	02-27 20:33
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	02-27 20:32
will dude be said 10 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 8	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	02-27 20:25
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	1	$1	0	1	-1	open	—	05-30 17:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 16:22:00	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xb14f9d…
06-05 15:59:55	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	40	76¢	$31	0x9e4613…
05-30 17:23:20	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x9c2f02…
05-30 17:16:07	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	42¢	$4	0x774ff9…
05-30 17:16:02	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x9807ca…
05-29 21:54:16	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x8b6dd4…
05-03 16:07:36	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	343	14¢	$48	0x1e5cea…
05-03 15:58:28	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0x4d604d…
04-25 13:09:16	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	0¢	$0	0xa68907…
04-19 13:05:24	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x788ea7…
04-19 13:04:16	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x01d22e…
03-24 16:48:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	31¢	$8	0xe704b5…
03-22 16:45:03	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x5216f0…
03-22 16:41:17	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x569155…
03-13 20:03:19	Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	No	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x664b69…
03-13 20:01:55	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x9d0456…
03-13 20:01:47	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xc23f25…
03-13 19:58:27	will bitcoin dip to 66k march 9 15	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0x5158cb…
03-13 19:55:37	bitcoin up or down march 13 3pm et	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x012a75…
03-13 19:55:07	bitcoin up or down march 13 3pm et	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x220d5c…
02-27 20:33:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6fd65a…
02-27 20:32:37	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x5f0e68…
02-27 20:30:57	will trumps approval rating be less than 41pt0 on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x96229d…
02-27 20:30:39	trump approval up or down this week 596	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf9434e…
02-27 20:25:21	will dude be said 10 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 8	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x56b35b…
02-27 18:10:07	Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xc1fec8…
02-27 18:07:43	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xe47fcf…
02-27 18:01:53	Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xfd199f…
02-27 17:57:33	will bad bunny have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month 952	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xf428dc…