Grounded-Expectation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$148

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 05-09 16:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

47% 100% +$1

Sports

22% 0% $-31

Politics

20% — —

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$31	38	0	+38	Sean Strickland	$-31	05-09 16:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	04-21 17:26
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$13	14	14	+0	open	—	04-09 05:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$10	10,500	0	+10,500	open	—	04-17 18:46
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-09 05:03
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	3	$8	46	0	+46	open	—	04-18 20:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	04-08 16:34
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?	3	$5	195	195	+0	No	+$1	04-18 19:59
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$5	6	2	+3	open	—	04-18 16:51
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$3	667	667	+0	open	—	04-13 14:21
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-10 04:39
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-19 21:04
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	2	$3	200	200	+0	open	—	04-18 20:00
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$2	9	9	+0	open	—	04-20 18:15
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-13 14:19
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-10 04:35
cs2 mglz prv 2026 04 09	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-09 16:53
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2	3	3	+0	open	—	04-23 11:52
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 14:52
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	2	$2	187	187	+0	open	—	04-10 07:51
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$2	3	3	+0	No	$-0	04-09 05:03
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	2	$2	143	133	+10	open	—	04-09 11:18
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$1	10	10	+0	open	—	05-08 10:05
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30?	1	$1	143	0	+143	open	—	04-29 19:52
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	04-17 18:42
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-29 19:53
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	1	$1	21	0	+21	open	—	04-17 18:39
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	04-18 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 16:51:03	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	38	82¢	$31	0x04e20e…
05-08 10:05:56	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x7bb5a8…
04-29 19:53:42	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x288592…
04-29 19:52:42	Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xfdba82…
04-23 11:52:18	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x2968b4…
04-21 18:59:24	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd4297f…
04-21 17:26:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x8ce98f…
04-21 07:32:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x7277e0…
04-21 07:30:30	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb2ed4a…
04-20 18:15:10	Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	SELL	9	17¢	$1	0x9b8493…
04-19 21:04:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x90e8e7…
04-18 20:32:38	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x1422a5…
04-18 20:32:26	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xd62baa…
04-18 20:00:50	Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xef7e06…
04-18 19:59:00	Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?	Yes	SELL	195	2¢	$3	0xa8dcfc…
04-18 16:51:56	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbcabf6…
04-18 16:50:54	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xa34bcb…
04-18 11:25:40	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xeeb915…
04-18 11:13:02	Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xb54205…
04-17 18:46:14	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	10,500	0¢	$10	0x667a50…
04-17 18:42:38	Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x9785da…
04-17 18:42:12	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xb66b7c…
04-17 18:41:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa30b70…
04-17 18:39:36	Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x7d5425…
04-17 18:38:52	Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xad425e…
04-17 18:37:16	Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	84	1¢	$1	0xbcf3db…
04-13 14:21:49	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	667	0¢	$1	0x0c3e21…
04-13 14:19:57	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa34e06…
04-10 07:51:37	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	SELL	187	0¢	$1	0x9658d3…
04-10 07:51:29	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x9b8cbc…
04-10 04:39:11	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xbe0f50…
04-10 04:35:23	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xf4b563…
04-09 16:56:31	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	187	1¢	$1	0xecf245…
04-09 16:54:49	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	667	0¢	$2	0x0e71d6…
04-09 16:53:03	cs2 mglz prv 2026 04 09	PARIVISION	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x951bbd…
04-09 16:50:39	cs2 mglz prv 2026 04 09	PARIVISION	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4082bc…
04-09 11:54:15	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x17b23b…
04-09 11:27:15	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x4a4c38…
04-09 11:26:55	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x62565b…
04-09 11:26:23	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xc07533…
04-09 11:18:29	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	Yes	SELL	133	0¢	$1	0xe8cebb…
04-09 05:03:25	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x22b426…
04-09 05:03:13	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xddb2d7…
04-09 05:02:05	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	14	46¢	$6	0xe7cc7d…
04-08 18:43:19	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xb24d83…
04-08 17:59:41	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x741706…
04-08 16:35:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0x550224…
04-08 16:34:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xc9b84a…
04-08 15:29:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xb95c11…
04-08 15:24:49	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x58ac26…
04-08 15:15:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x86bdcf…
04-08 15:09:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x86e668…
04-08 14:52:59	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xba3e43…
04-08 14:51:57	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x33c96f…