Live-Baseline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$113

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 07-20 11:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

41% — —

Crypto

26% 20% $-16

Politics

25% 0% $-9

Tech

4% — —

Sports

4% 0% $-4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	06-25 09:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$13	20	0	+20	open	—	05-07 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$9	9	9	+0	Up	$-1	05-07 19:45
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-14 16:19
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-14 16:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	05-07 19:57
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	1	$5	107	0	+107	Yes	$-5	05-08 08:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$5	19	0	+19	Up	$-5	05-07 20:00
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	1	$5	29	0	+29	open	—	05-08 08:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	$-5	05-08 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Down	$-5	05-07 21:05
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	07-06 01:09
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	07-07 17:23
will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	07-20 11:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-12 08:12
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	1	$4	10	0	+10	Pistons	$-4	05-07 19:58
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	1	$2	1,062	0	+1,062	Yes	$-2	05-07 19:41
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	1	$2	154	0	+154	Yes	$-2	05-07 19:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 11:23:36	will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbbb7c4…
07-07 17:23:56	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x301089…
07-06 01:09:02	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6366a0…
06-25 09:40:17	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x2fd95a…
05-14 16:19:44	Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x6ab5d3…
05-14 16:19:10	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x4bd456…
05-12 08:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xeb4256…
05-08 08:35:27	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x3c3c33…
05-08 08:35:17	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	107	5¢	$5	0x2b6178…
05-08 08:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xb19023…
05-07 21:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xcbdec1…
05-07 20:04:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x3b48f8…
05-07 20:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x16fbe9…
05-07 19:58:54	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x5e6431…
05-07 19:57:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xfbad6c…
05-07 19:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x878c29…
05-07 19:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x055d2d…
05-07 19:41:31	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	No	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0xeab7ef…
05-07 19:41:08	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	1,062	0¢	$2	0x0a0cc8…