Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?
open
Total volume
$682
$3,385 in 24h
Trades
34
Unique wallets
31
Liquidity
$13,905
Latest YES mid
83¢
Latest NO mid
17¢
End date
2026-05-22
First seen
2026-05-13
last 05-14 10:35
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | $95 | — | +$95 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 28 | $156 | $276 | $120 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | — | $10 | $10 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 5 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| Below median | 8 | $36 | $1 | +$35 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $95 | — | +$95 |
| unranked | 11 | $117 | $265 | $148 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigid-Beck 0xae70…abfb | No | +590 | $186 | $186 | 3 | 05-13 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x9024…6220 | No | +452 | $74 | $74 | 1 | 05-14 07:34 |
| Milky-Gallon-Prow 0x0385…7ffa | Yes | +120 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 05-14 09:34 |
| Well-Lit-Salary 0x5e34…36b1 | Yes | +110 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 05-13 09:19 |
| Ultimate-Brushfire 0x392a…262d | Yes | +40 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 05-13 05:43 |
| Jam-Packed-Maggot 0xf8d0…c8c9 | No | +39 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 06:39 |
| Unfit-Colonization 0xc1a1…689c | No | +34 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-14 01:25 |
| Classic-Hog 0x4d29…11ed | Yes | +10 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-13 03:18 |
| Sandy-Conifer 0x8063…94f1 | Yes | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-14 10:29 |
| Frayed-Schnitzel 0x406c…d9a3 | Yes | +7 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-13 23:19 |
| Salty-Accusation 0x4960…0648 | Yes | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 02:51 |
| Dark-Neonate 0xc357…e776 | No | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 10:35 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 09:16 |
| Embellished-Chimpanzee 0x1183…0824 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:43 |
| Original-Nun 0x3c02…2ef8 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:44 |
| Vague-Fort 0x94fd…413e | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:44 |
| Wilted-Fourths 0xf6f1…e695 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:44 |
| Fortunate-Enigma 0x3112…568a | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:44 |
| Sugary-Donation 0x8dc0…9047 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:44 |
| Elaborate-Cookie 0x1e28…1807 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:44 |
| Annual-Genetics 0x6e80…e98b | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 08:45 |
| Productive-Semicolon 0x4861…ca41 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 04:01 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 10:35:13 | Dark-Neonate 0xc357…e776 | No | BUY | 6 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x090f4b… |
| 05-14 10:29:16 | Sandy-Conifer 0x8063…94f1 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0x7e86c8… |
| 05-14 09:34:22 | Milky-Gallon-Prow 0x0385…7ffa | Yes | BUY | 120 | 83¢ | $100 | 0x1b3a2c… |
| 05-14 07:34:02 | (anonymous) 0x9024…6220 | No | BUY | 452 | 16¢ | $74 | 0xd87646… |
| 05-14 06:39:01 | Jam-Packed-Maggot 0xf8d0…c8c9 | No | BUY | 39 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x5ab5a2… |
| 05-14 04:01:15 | Productive-Semicolon 0x4861…ca41 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xd161a4… |
| 05-14 03:58:54 | Satisfied-Effacement 0xf41c…ba2f | Yes | SELL | 3 | 83¢ | $2 | 0xe8b2e4… |
| 05-14 03:58:54 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | No | SELL | 1 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xc0cc42… |
| 05-14 02:51:00 | Salty-Accusation 0x4960…0648 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 85¢ | $5 | 0x962d20… |
| 05-14 01:26:30 | Flowery-Hire 0x1c8f…4182 | No | SELL | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0x25794b… |
| 05-14 01:26:25 | Gloomy-Look 0x9d7f…9941 | No | SELL | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0xf1c580… |
| 05-14 01:26:21 | Glossy-Bait 0x03b3…9a65 | No | SELL | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0x3038d7… |
| 05-14 01:26:21 | Imperfect-Disclosure 0x3b5c…043a | No | SELL | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0xfc0f2c… |
| 05-14 01:26:21 | Advanced-Maestro 0x9366…a9f6 | No | SELL | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0x026b9a… |
| 05-14 01:25:50 | Unfit-Colonization 0xc1a1…689c | No | BUY | 34 | 30¢ | $10 | 0x28deb6… |
| 05-13 23:19:13 | Frayed-Schnitzel 0x406c…d9a3 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 74¢ | $5 | 0x59f343… |
| 05-13 21:51:57 | Functional-Winery 0xb593…9980 | No | SELL | 6 | 28¢ | $2 | 0xd284dc… |
| 05-13 20:14:16 | Rigid-Beck 0xae70…abfb | No | BUY | 130 | 25¢ | $32 | 0x75b17b… |
| 05-13 20:13:55 | Rigid-Beck 0xae70…abfb | No | BUY | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x11b91a… |
| 05-13 20:13:17 | Rigid-Beck 0xae70…abfb | No | BUY | 447 | 33¢ | $149 | 0xe99a35… |
| 05-13 09:19:32 | Well-Lit-Salary 0x5e34…36b1 | Yes | BUY | 110 | 86¢ | $95 | 0xd75a25… |
| 05-13 09:16:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x26b4f5… |
| 05-13 08:45:05 | Annual-Genetics 0x6e80…e98b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x3b9512… |
| 05-13 08:44:53 | Sugary-Donation 0x8dc0…9047 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x0cc922… |
| 05-13 08:44:51 | Fortunate-Enigma 0x3112…568a | Yes | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x16a861… |
| 05-13 08:44:44 | Wilted-Fourths 0xf6f1…e695 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x8ae12e… |
| 05-13 08:44:44 | Elaborate-Cookie 0x1e28…1807 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x2a1cdb… |
| 05-13 08:44:43 | Vague-Fort 0x94fd…413e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0xa54fe9… |
| 05-13 08:44:29 | Original-Nun 0x3c02…2ef8 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x63f9ed… |
| 05-13 08:43:36 | Embellished-Chimpanzee 0x1183…0824 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 77¢ | $1 | 0x657ca5… |
| 05-13 05:43:07 | Ultimate-Brushfire 0x392a…262d | Yes | BUY | 40 | 77¢ | $31 | 0xe77133… |
| 05-13 05:22:32 | Ultimate-Brushfire 0x392a…262d | Yes | BUY | 0 | 60¢ | $0 | 0x33eeb0… |
| 05-13 05:13:08 | Muddy-Consignment 0x0843…131e | Yes | SELL | 13 | 57¢ | $7 | 0x53f6f3… |
| 05-13 03:18:06 | Classic-Hog 0x4d29…11ed | Yes | BUY | 10 | 60¢ | $6 | 0x733cb7… |