Realized P&L
+$93
Unrealized P&L
-$34
Hit rate
90.9%
Resolved
21
Trades
11,496
lifetime
Volume
$507.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$44
Open exposure
$2.64K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 07-21 18:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
56% 73% +$78
Other
38% 67% +$13
Sports
5% 75% +$2
Tech
1%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 115 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No -558 $-526 90¢ $-505 +$21 07-08 08:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +820 $646 55¢ $447 $-199 07-21 15:33
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No +447 $325 78¢ $348 +$23 07-21 14:36
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +250 $240 96¢ $239 $-1 07-21 14:40
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +241 $223 93¢ $224 +$1 07-21 18:54
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No -201 $-229 98¢ $-196 +$33 06-30 16:06
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No -184 $-165 91¢ $-167 $-2 06-14 08:07
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No -131 $-137 90¢ $-118 +$19 07-17 04:11
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +119 $77 81¢ $96 +$20 07-17 21:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No -98 $-58 68¢ $-67 $-9 07-09 08:23
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +49 $42 97¢ $48 +$6 07-13 10:17
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +46 $43 97¢ $44 +$1 07-14 08:57
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No +37 $33 88¢ $33 $-0 07-21 16:50
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -267 $-48 12¢ $-31 +$18 07-19 09:12
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No +36 $29 82¢ $29 +$1 07-14 22:06
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +28 $9 31¢ $9 $-0 07-10 03:00
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +13 $9 66¢ $8 $-0 07-15 15:45
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +10 $-7 76¢ $8 +$15 06-15 01:33
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? No +5 $4 91¢ $5 +$0 06-03 19:25
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes +5 $-13 93¢ $4 +$18 07-19 12:13
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? No +5 $3 84¢ $4 +$1 06-01 09:03
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes +5 $3 58¢ $3 +$0 07-16 15:42
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No +5 $1 42¢ $2 +$2 07-13 19:31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -2 $-3 92¢ $-2 +$1 06-28 20:10
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -2 $-1 64¢ $-2 $-1 06-14 10:26
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No -1 $-1 86¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:25
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -1 $-0 88¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:24
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:25
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No -0 $-0 95¢ $-0 $-0 06-14 10:24
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -0 $-0 90¢ $-0 $-0 06-14 10:24