Realized P&L
+$93
Unrealized P&L
+$217
Hit rate
90.9%
Resolved
21
Trades
10,964
lifetime
Volume
$491.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$45
Open exposure
$2.99K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 06-30 23:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
57% 73% +$78
Other
37% 67% +$13
Sports
4% 75% +$2
Tech
1%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +430 $344 84¢ $359 +$15 07-01 01:00
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No +342 $301 99¢ $339 +$38 06-26 18:22
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No +427 $312 75¢ $321 +$9 06-30 12:51
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No -274 $-268 90¢ $-245 +$22 06-20 03:09
Iran leadership change by June 30? No -239 $-232 100¢ $-239 $-6 06-14 07:44
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +250 $206 87¢ $217 +$11 06-26 05:24
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No -243 $-194 86¢ $-210 $-16 06-03 00:28
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No -201 $-229 98¢ $-197 +$33 06-30 16:06
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No -195 $-191 100¢ $-195 $-4 06-14 10:21
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No -184 $-165 90¢ $-166 $-1 06-14 08:07
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +132 $88 74¢ $97 +$9 06-26 04:12
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No -85 $-93 100¢ $-85 +$8 06-14 10:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +56 $20 99¢ $56 +$35 06-29 12:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +50 $47 100¢ $50 +$3 06-16 06:29
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No -45 $-45 100¢ $-45 $-0 06-17 16:12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No +45 $43 100¢ $45 +$2 06-18 04:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +35 $-6 100¢ $35 +$41 06-27 23:13
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No +32 $30 99¢ $32 +$2 06-29 05:43
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No -28 $-28 100¢ $-28 $-0 06-12 10:23
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +10 $-7 68¢ $7 +$14 06-15 01:33
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$1 06-29 08:14
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? No +5 $4 89¢ $4 +$0 06-03 19:25
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? No +5 $3 84¢ $4 +$1 06-01 09:03
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes +4 $3 90¢ $4 +$1 06-14 10:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -2 $-3 86¢ $-2 +$1 06-28 20:10
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? Yes -5 $-0 29¢ $-1 $-1 06-14 10:24
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -2 $-1 55¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:26
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No -1 $-1 86¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:25
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -1 $-0 86¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:24
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 06-14 10:25