Buoyant-Nurture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.85K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.08K

Hit rate

88.6%

Resolved

1,510

Trades

5,084

lifetime

Volume

$721.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$142

Open exposure

$1.71K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 12:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 231 days

Categories

Other

56% 92% +$4,320

Politics

33% 90% +$1,759

Tech

9% 92% +$378

Crypto

1% 85% +$102

Sports

1% 95% +$288

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No	+789	$9	94¢	$742	+$733	09-09 05:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	+225	$211	96¢	$216	+$5	08-29 14:43
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	+168	$84	97¢	$163	+$79	08-29 01:53
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	+152	$99	92¢	$139	+$40	09-10 00:57
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	+135	$127	95¢	$127	+$1	10-23 12:00
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	+136	$117	88¢	$119	+$2	10-02 04:17
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	+500	$95	14¢	$70	-$25	07-01 22:23
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+47	$40	93¢	$44	+$3	08-18 22:21
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	+45	$31	93¢	$42	+$11	08-13 12:45
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	+25	$25	99¢	$25	+$0	10-30 02:25
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	-330	-$237	4¢	$-13	+$224	05-23 10:11
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	-6	-$5	96¢	$-6	$0	07-01 10:19
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-100	-$6	1¢	$-1	+$6	06-06 12:38
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	+0	-$2	95¢	$0	+$2	06-07 23:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	21	$23.3K	13,007	12,531	+476	Yes	+$42	07-05 23:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	36	$11.3K	6,674	5,105	+1,569	No	-$12	03-02 06:16
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	42	$11.2K	9,480	1,773	+7,707	No	+$69	07-01 07:26
us x venezuela military engagement by january 15 2026 392	11	$9.9K	5,244	5,244	+0	Yes	-$215	01-03 07:52
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	35	$8.3K	4,185	4,185	+0	No	+$19	09-26 03:33
clf bfc cam 2026 08 01 total 3pt5	14	$7.2K	4,866	2,452	+2,413	Over	-$17	08-01 23:59
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	44	$6.9K	4,428	2,497	+1,931	No	+$21	06-22 22:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	20	$6.7K	3,624	3,624	+0	No	+$361	06-01 01:53
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?	8	$6.5K	3,360	3,196	+165	No	+$30	01-13 06:57
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	43	$5.4K	2,775	3,320	-545	Yes	-$241	02-28 07:13
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 goals lionel messi gte1	15	$5.4K	5,407	0	+5,407	No	+$29	07-12 03:03
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	36	$5.3K	1,322	4,046	-2,724	No	+$38	06-30 10:56
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	16	$5.2K	4,209	1,350	+2,859	Yes	+$358	04-08 07:27
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	13	$5.0K	2,543	2,543	+0	Yes	+$28	01-23 07:12
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the january meeting	3	$5.0K	3,959	1,000	+2,959	Yes	+$3	01-15 04:59
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	3	$4.7K	2,876	1,876	+1,000	Yes	+$3	07-07 11:36
SHEIN IPO before 2027?	12	$4.7K	3,717	1,332	+2,385	Yes	+$66	09-01 01:26
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	21	$4.5K	2,293	2,293	+0	Yes	+$45	03-01 00:11
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship by january 10 2026	24	$4.5K	3,972	543	+3,429	Yes	+$24	01-09 14:52
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	10	$4.4K	3,294	1,294	+2,000	No	+$58	07-29 23:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	21	$4.4K	2,719	2,719	+0	Yes	+$321	01-31 11:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$4.4K	2,311	2,111	+200	Yes	-$42	04-08 05:34
will israel or the us target tehran 812	14	$4.3K	2,846	1,460	+1,386	Yes	+$48	02-28 07:45
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	6	$4.2K	4,200	0	+4,200	Yes	+$4	08-02 10:51
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	12	$4.0K	3,856	420	+3,436	No	+$230	04-06 05:06
si up or down on february 2 2026	12	$4.0K	4,351	648	+3,703	Down	-$202	02-03 02:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	26	$3.8K	2,098	1,969	+129	No	+$147	07-07 21:44
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	39	$3.8K	3,323	725	+2,598	Yes	+$190	03-04 00:12
will ldp win a majority in the 2026 japanese snap election	10	$3.6K	2,431	1,201	+1,231	Yes	+$8	02-08 20:19
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?	14	$3.6K	1,816	1,816	+0	No	+$10	06-01 04:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:50:31	Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	59	97¢	$57	0xa554d3…
10-30 12:50:06	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	97¢	$51	0x13f289…
10-30 12:49:42	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xfd6fff…
10-30 12:49:42	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x110f2a…
10-30 12:47:45	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	185	99¢	$184	0x6ce7fc…
10-30 02:27:40	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $270B by October 31?	No	BUY	54	96¢	$52	0x17eb54…
10-30 02:27:18	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x2469f9…
10-30 02:25:55	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $257.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0xe5ec45…
10-30 02:25:55	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $257.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$9	0x221722…
10-30 02:25:30	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x78a4db…
10-30 02:25:00	SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x271bd1…
10-30 02:23:40	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x72fa09…
10-29 20:39:36	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xf5b925…
10-29 20:39:12	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0xbe09b3…
10-29 15:57:14	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	31¢	$29	0xf2ade6…
10-29 14:36:46	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	31¢	$18	0x2ea120…
10-29 14:34:22	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0xc4a549…
10-29 11:23:37	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xbbb43a…
10-29 08:09:53	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x85aa0a…
10-29 08:09:49	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x96112d…
10-29 08:09:35	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	28¢	$15	0x7c9ab4…
10-29 05:52:04	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x4c927f…
10-29 05:51:05	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xeb8adb…
10-29 05:38:16	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xecda96…
10-29 03:50:58	DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xb3933e…
10-29 03:50:04	Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0xa6dac5…
10-29 02:58:31	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	94¢	$39	0x371461…
10-29 02:57:41	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x4e91e6…
10-29 02:54:41	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xe93e07…
10-28 02:39:14	Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xc431e1…
10-28 02:38:36	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	92¢	$138	0x448e1e…
10-28 02:38:27	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x080083…
10-28 02:37:50	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x14e620…
10-28 02:35:05	Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x26a240…
10-28 02:35:05	Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	BUY	124	98¢	$121	0x24f082…
10-28 02:33:50	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0637cc…
10-28 02:33:26	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	183	98¢	$180	0xa834cd…
10-26 01:03:14	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by October 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x6420c8…
10-25 23:40:08	Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x9f15ae…
10-25 19:49:21	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $270B by October 31?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$149	0x4f0b97…
10-25 19:47:45	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	357	97¢	$347	0x4a10de…
10-25 19:45:51	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$54	0x258de9…
10-25 19:45:33	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x4bdb41…
10-25 19:44:50	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?	No	BUY	302	95¢	$287	0x203724…
10-25 19:44:08	ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x48aac0…
10-25 19:43:59	Amazon announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xed4240…
10-25 19:43:48	Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd473e0…
10-25 19:43:39	Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbb21e3…
10-25 19:43:30	Meituan announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf94b5a…
10-25 19:43:14	Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x46556e…
10-25 19:16:11	Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7986cb…
10-25 16:45:17	Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	SELL	950	100¢	$948	0xac2b75…
10-25 02:27:03	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?	Yes	BUY	73	98¢	$72	0x3fa102…
10-25 02:26:48	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?	No	SELL	75	97¢	$72	0xe3077d…
10-25 02:14:18	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?	No	BUY	255	95¢	$242	0x7addd3…
10-25 02:13:44	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x35af54…
10-25 02:13:33	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xdd59c9…
10-25 02:12:06	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x3bafcf…
10-25 02:11:59	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x9d108b…
10-25 02:11:51	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x06906f…
10-25 02:11:38	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xa6d472…
10-25 02:11:29	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x1636ba…
10-25 02:11:17	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xc3d1a8…
10-25 02:11:11	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xac9d16…
10-25 02:11:02	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x4e85f3…
10-25 02:10:59	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x154f9e…
10-25 02:10:35	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x2eab68…
10-25 02:10:29	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x95af85…
10-25 02:10:12	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x8eb85d…
10-25 02:10:05	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x277b1f…
10-25 02:09:35	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xa5d67c…
10-25 02:09:27	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x97ead4…
10-25 02:09:24	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xe17d1b…
10-24 05:37:29	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	150	68¢	$102	0x3b606e…
10-24 05:35:18	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	68¢	$13	0x763e9b…
10-23 12:00:33	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	120	95¢	$113	0x697889…
10-23 11:58:00	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x3b6198…
10-22 22:16:11	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	229	79¢	$180	0x112183…
10-22 19:15:06	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xec8010…
10-22 17:18:20	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x5acad0…
10-22 15:39:42	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x96e84e…
10-22 15:39:39	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0xbe1833…
10-22 15:32:03	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	6¢	$1	0x03d51f…
10-22 15:03:12	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0xcc05d5…
10-22 15:03:02	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	6¢	$2	0x671cd7…
10-22 14:37:57	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x039698…
10-22 14:34:20	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0x444fed…
10-22 14:28:08	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	372	81¢	$301	0x9ea12e…
10-21 16:36:24	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	84¢	$64	0x9b5a81…
10-21 07:46:29	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	47	92¢	$43	0x66c026…
10-21 07:46:21	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x9d3796…
10-20 21:26:20	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x3c9a60…
10-20 15:25:53	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0x51027f…
10-20 04:15:53	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	89¢	$26	0xa3c13a…
10-20 04:05:05	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x0e6071…
10-20 04:04:53	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	89¢	$24	0x243429…
10-19 10:55:08	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	84¢	$69	0x6e07d0…
10-19 10:54:24	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	83¢	$55	0x15fb46…
10-19 10:52:45	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	81¢	$39	0x44bd8d…
10-19 03:33:48	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	80¢	$52	0x00bc80…