Tinted-Piglet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.06K

Unrealized P&L

+$123

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

168

Trades

197

lifetime

Volume

$48.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$244

Open exposure

$2.30K

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 10-27 18:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

42% 73% -$1,808

Other

40% 37% -$457

Crypto

11% 55% +$105

Tech

7% 88% +$101

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	+1,100	$1,000	97¢	$1.1K	+$65	06-02 20:15
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+398	$350	92¢	$368	+$18	06-22 21:55
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+337	$300	96¢	$322	+$22	06-02 20:20
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	+251	$200	86¢	$217	+$17	06-22 21:56
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	+235	$200	84¢	$198	-$2	10-01 21:43
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+118	$115	100¢	$117	+$2	10-27 18:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$5	11¢	$5	+$0	10-16 17:58
saudi airspace closed by december 31 2026	Yes	+29	$5	16¢	$5	$0	10-16 18:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2?	1	$3.4K	3,434	0	+3,434	No	+$24	06-01 20:18
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.9K	1,062	1,062	+0	open	—	09-01 21:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$1.7K	1,933	0	+1,933	No	+$193	05-16 09:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.7K	1,750	0	+1,750	No	+$40	05-12 21:31
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	1	$1.6K	1,750	0	+1,750	No	+$115	06-08 16:01
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	2	$1.6K	825	825	+0	No	+$18	06-22 21:53
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?	1	$1.4K	1,436	0	+1,436	Yes	+$66	05-10 21:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$1.3K	1,404	0	+1,404	Yes	-$1,350	06-10 16:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.3K	1,503	0	+1,503	No	+$230	05-31 14:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$1.1K	0	1,176	-1,176	No	-$55	06-27 22:16
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	1	$1000	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	06-02 20:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$1000	1,053	0	+1,053	No	+$53	06-02 20:12
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by October 31, 2026?	1	$800	837	0	+837	open	—	10-01 21:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	1	$780	839	0	+839	No	+$59	05-01 16:34
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20?	2	$735	852	0	+852	Yes	-$735	06-19 23:24
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18?	1	$700	839	0	+839	No	+$139	06-17 23:19
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	2	$642	349	349	+0	open	—	09-26 20:48
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	1	$600	675	0	+675	Yes	-$600	08-16 22:03
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 6?	1	$585	627	0	+627	No	+$42	09-06 09:12
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	1	$572	582	0	+582	No	+$10	06-06 11:48
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?	1	$570	575	0	+575	No	+$5	05-19 23:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	1	$565	601	0	+601	Yes	+$36	05-23 15:52
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 5?	1	$565	587	0	+587	No	+$22	09-05 08:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	1	$562	572	0	+572	No	+$10	06-04 16:18
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	1	$560	663	0	+663	Yes	+$103	06-27 22:20
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 4?	1	$550	565	0	+565	No	+$15	09-03 16:40
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	1	$508	512	0	+512	No	+$4	04-28 20:45
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	1	$500	514	0	+514	No	+$14	09-26 20:54
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	1	$500	753	0	+753	Yes	-$500	05-02 20:36
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	1	$500	590	0	+590	No	+$90	08-01 17:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 18:59:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	118	97¢	$115	0x80373b…
10-16 18:00:23	saudi airspace closed by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xbfcfc1…
10-16 17:59:15	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc5dfa5…
10-16 17:58:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xa80969…
10-16 17:53:59	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x341700…
10-16 17:50:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x7834f5…
10-16 17:50:17	will ethereum reach 2500 on october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3f621b…
10-16 17:49:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x91bba3…
10-16 17:45:51	solana up or down on october 17 2026	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x4e91d0…
10-16 17:45:32	ethereum up or down on october 17 2026	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8513d9…
10-16 17:44:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x6a6267…
10-16 17:44:36	bitcoin up or down on october 17 2026	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x258215…
10-16 17:44:09	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd62a6f…
10-16 17:43:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe2eeed…
10-14 18:07:24	spy closes above 765 on october 15 2026	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x0f710d…
10-14 17:43:31	Will the biggest earthquake on October 14, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	121	95¢	$115	0x90d427…
10-14 17:41:19	how strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by october 31 20260928t160000000z will a 6pt5 earthquake occur worldwide by october 31	No	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x9ab8c2…
10-10 21:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xa46e79…
10-10 21:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xa83d23…
10-10 21:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x3ea697…
10-10 20:59:55	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc47e78…
10-10 20:58:09	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdfe437…
10-10 20:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xeb9368…
10-08 23:59:02	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x101f68…
10-08 23:58:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x48197f…
10-08 23:57:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb8b464…
10-08 23:56:26	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xeb5520…
10-08 23:56:17	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xadcc2a…
10-08 23:54:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x1187de…
10-08 23:51:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xfc695a…
10-08 23:48:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd4592c…
10-06 13:47:55	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x3e5dce…
10-06 13:46:22	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x634b46…
10-06 13:46:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x3b8f84…
10-06 13:45:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb44c92…
10-06 13:45:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	128	1¢	$1	0xc94da9…
10-06 13:44:43	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x56a59a…
10-06 13:44:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xc02159…
10-06 13:43:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x4e1180…
10-06 13:43:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x321c59…
10-06 13:42:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8337e4…
10-06 13:40:03	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xf45e26…
10-06 13:39:12	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xcec1b6…
10-04 15:38:34	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	No	BUY	411	91¢	$375	0xf9f085…
10-04 15:36:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x921a14…
10-04 15:35:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x502df6…
10-04 15:34:50	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x318d31…
10-04 15:34:29	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe08809…
10-04 15:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	86	1¢	$1	0xa45848…
10-04 15:33:13	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe18094…
10-04 15:32:32	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x6c8ead…
10-01 22:12:41	Will Micron (MU) close at $1,080-$1,100 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 28 – Oct 2?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9cef88…
10-01 22:05:47	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xad0430…
10-01 22:03:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x55dd65…
10-01 22:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xabcdda…
10-01 21:57:29	Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	71¢	$80	0xa3b3b0…
10-01 21:49:26	Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	837	96¢	$800	0xa4b08e…
10-01 21:48:00	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	263	8¢	$20	0xe9a3f7…
10-01 21:46:33	Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x157e7a…
10-01 21:43:27	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0x8a4231…
09-26 21:01:17	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	63	84¢	$53	0x83d218…
09-26 20:59:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x316ab7…
09-26 20:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xafbc5d…
09-26 20:59:06	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x812c2b…
09-26 20:58:45	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xaa5eea…
09-26 20:57:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf91a99…
09-26 20:57:11	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x82dede…
09-26 20:54:39	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	514	97¢	$500	0x2c4b96…
09-26 20:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5a05d6…
09-26 20:49:20	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	SELL	228	97¢	$221	0x05de7e…
09-26 20:48:44	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	349	98¢	$342	0x671cdd…
09-16 17:44:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x12bced…
09-16 17:43:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xb06fc0…
09-16 17:42:39	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6a87d5…
09-16 17:41:42	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc9047e…
09-16 17:40:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xc9e77f…
09-16 17:39:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xfb9a71…
09-16 17:39:25	Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xb07208…
09-16 17:37:33	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x4f9a3a…
09-16 17:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x02cefd…
09-16 17:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x52b847…
09-16 17:36:10	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb7021a…
09-14 21:30:58	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x11185b…
09-14 21:28:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x7cd89a…
09-14 21:26:48	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x35acf3…
09-14 21:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xcdebb3…
09-14 21:24:52	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xfa21da…
09-14 21:24:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xedd0a3…
09-14 21:23:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8da196…
09-08 17:11:48	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0x6a40e6…
09-07 16:18:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 8?	No	BUY	518	62¢	$321	0xf88d08…
09-07 16:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 8?	No	BUY	308	97¢	$300	0x596684…
09-06 09:12:33	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 6?	No	BUY	627	93¢	$585	0x9f3d99…
09-05 08:47:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 5?	No	BUY	587	96¢	$565	0x0b8ab8…
09-03 16:40:10	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 4?	No	BUY	565	97¢	$550	0x913b0f…
09-01 22:00:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 2?	No	BUY	448	86¢	$385	0x5ed66e…
09-01 21:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 2?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x962dad…
09-01 21:41:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	603	83¢	$500	0xc8672d…
09-01 21:41:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,062	93¢	$988	0x5a8c89…
08-16 22:03:09	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	675	89¢	$600	0xaf5d0d…